The Oaks is the feature on day one of the Derby Festival with the favourite Ylang Ylang Unibet 2/1, who looked an eye catching fifth in the 1,000 Guineas, though many will want to look elsewhere at the prices. Another factor is the ground, which is soft with 5mm forecast for Thursday and now 3mm for Oaks Day so stamina will really come to the fore.
In the last ten years there have been two winning favourites with only one winner who was above 8/1 with Qualify at 50/1 back in 2015.
My selection Forest Fairy Unibet 7/1 will certainly handle the ground and distance in an Oaks to be run on much more testing conditions than expected.
Enjoy whether on the Epsom Downs or watching on ITV Racing or Racing TV.
Cheers!
The Wine Tipster
2:00 Epsom – British EBF Woodcote Stakes (6f)
New Charter for Unibet Ambassador Richard Hannon has probably shown enough on her Newmarket debut, when a good second to the unbeaten Mountain Breeze, to think that merely a repeat of that would give her an excellent chance. She made up her ground in good style that day, and for one that’s going to want a mile and further in time, did not look short of speed. Mountain Breeze should be fine with the ground, as her sire New Bay won from good to heavy and she can get punters off to a good start.
2:35 Epsom – Trustatrader.com Handicap (1m½f)
Orbaan makes plenty of each-way appeal at a double-figure price and looks very well handicapped with both Fantastic Fox and Dutch Decoy on their running in the race last year.
On that occasion Orbaan, in finishing a close fourth, had been beaten half a length by Dutch Decoy and in front of Fantastic Fox yet meets the former on 18lb better terms and the latter 16lb, so it doesn’t take a genius to work out he really ought to be beating them on the revised terms.
The question mark is the ground, because his best efforts have come on quicker, however with 5mm forecast on Thursday it will not be at testing as it could have been so he’s worth a small each-way wager at the prices with five places being paid.
Derry Lad was doing all of his best work in the final furlong last time out over the inadequate trip of a mile on his second appearance of the season when stepping up considerably from his seasonal debut. He certainly will have no problem with the ground having won on good to soft and on his only other appearance at Epsom he was fourth in the heavy when favourite over 1m 4f. This looks a good opportunity over this distance to gain his fifth career success.
4:30 Epsom – Oaks Group 1 (1m4f)
Forest Fairy (nap) is the only unbeaten filly in the field and whilst if you take her official rating of 98, she is short of where you need to be to win the Oaks, though to counter her rating she looks like one of the real improvers in the field with a great attitude. She won on debut back in February at Wolverhampton by 6 lengths from Los Toldos and then at the Chester Oaks beat Port Fairy by a head when visually looking impressive as she moved clear. Forest Fairy is by Waldgeist, who won the Arc and who was very effective on this ground, with stamina a big plus Forest Fairy can put this to good use.
Seaward was third to stablemate Forest Fairy in the Chester Oaks on seasonal debut when not given a hard race and making a massive step up from her seventh to Ylang Ylang in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last season. Seaward, who is by Sea The Stars, will need to take another big step forward and is more than capable of doing so at a big price.
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