A combined 69 league games, amounting to 102 hours of football, has brought Arsenal and Manchester City to this juncture. The tease, the promise, of a title race going right to the wire.

Before we jump the gun, however, and start dreaming of final-day shenanigans, there is the small matter of this Saturday to consider, a weekend that sees both title challengers at home to sides who are as well-matched as they are.

Only two points separate Bournemouth and Wolves and only one strike in their goal-differences. Both are stoically and impressively mid-table, with all of the strengths and weaknesses that come implied.

The question, therefore, a query that has accompanied every matchday for several weeks now, and will do until the end of the season, is this: Who from the Gunners and the Blues have the easier task lying in wait?

The temptation is to suggest City have the more straightforward chore, not least because Pep Guardiola’s men last lost at the Etihad prior to the Qatar World Cup.

Moreover, even taking into account Wolves’ narrow victory over Luton last week, this is a side who you feel have run their race, allowing standards to dip late on in their campaign and not for the first time either.

Last season, Wolves endured two multi-goal thumpings in the closing weeks. The season before, they went into the summer winless in seven.

City have converted before the break in each of their last five league games, going on to score 4+ goals four times. Over 3.5 goals for the hosts and ahead at half-time offers up 11/8

Taking nothing away from the excellent work Gary O’Neil has done at Molineux – and also factoring in that they have suffered more than most with injuries to attacking fare – this is a club that habitually has one eye on the sun loungers and cocktails from April on.

That is not to say that Wolves won’t be competitive against the reigning champions. In their last seven outings they have picked up 3.4 yellows per 90 while Joao Gomes has committed the second most fouls in the Premier League this term.

But in adventure, in desire, do they still have enough in reserve to dig deep and execute one of the shock results of the season? Expect them to be physical but with little resistance beyond that to a routine City win.

Over 2.5 cards for the visitors is a shout at 11/10

Bournemouth meanwhile are coming into form. Indeed, should they win to nil at the Emirates – an unlikely occurrence, admittedly – it will be the first time they have ever won three consecutive games in the top-flight in this manner.

Up front of course they have Dominic Solanke, a striker who has not only scored three times more this season to last but has previous for inflicting his wares on the big guns. The 26-year-old boasts five goal involvements in 2023/24 against the current top six.

What’s more, the England international is surrounded by dove-tailing attacking talents who can hurt Arsenal in transition.

The loss of winger Antoine Semenyo to injury is considerable for the Cherries but they still have Justin Kluivert averaging 1.8 shots per game and Ryan Christie maintaining 1.5 key passes per 90. The latter incidentally has also made 211 ball recoveries, a league high. With midfielder Alex Scott also impactful in recent weeks they have the ways and means of carving out opportunities, creating three big chances apiece against Brighton and Wolves.

The problem is, this is Arsenal. And Arsenal barely give an inch.

Granted, their xG against in their last two outings has been 2.42 and 1.68 respectively, and this strongly suggests that as the pressure intensifies the Gunners are beginning to get a touch nervy at the back.

But just eight goals conceded in 2024 speaks volumes, as does keeping clean sheets in 45.7% of their league fixtures this term.

That increased xG against is persuasive. Go for BTTS and combine with over 10.5 corners total at 11/5. Both teams are in the top four for corners won this term.

And naturally, at the other end, Arsenal’s sustained prolificacy is their greatest strength. With their recent defeat at home to Villa an outlier, Mikel Arteta’s side have elsewhere averaged 3.5 goals per 90 at the Emirates in 2024.

Determining who might contribute to this trend continuing leads us to some obvious sources.

Martin Odegaard has been responsible for the second most progressive passes made in the Premier League and the most passes into the box, while Bukayo Saka has had the most touches inside an opponent’s penalty area. Is it any wonder that the former has eight assists while Saka has enjoyed his most productive return in front of goal since emerging as a wonderkid in the making four years ago.  

As a finisher too, Odegaard is worth highlighting here. He has previously scored three in three at the expense of Bournemouth.

The Norwegian is 15/8 to score anytime at the Emirates.

As for City, Phil Foden returns from illness and nine Man of the Match awards in 30 league appearances attests to what an outstanding season he’s having. But how can we possibly overlook Kevin De Bruyne’s hex over this weekend’s opposition, the brilliant Belgian scoring and assisting ten times in eight prior meetings.

His four goals at Molineux in 2022 stands as one of the most magnificent individual performances witnessed in the Premier League. Pertinently, then, as now, there was fewer than a handful of games remaining, with City locked in a tight title chase.

Come Saturday evening don’t be surprised therefore if little has changed at the league summit beyond perhaps a tweaking to the goal difference. And this takes us one week closer to final-day shenanigans.

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