THIS Sunday, 10th-placed Chelsea will face current top-flight leaders Liverpool in the League Cup Final, with the two sides having previously met in the EFL Cup final in 2005 and 2022 and in two previous FA Cup finals (2012 and 2022). This will, therefore, be the first-ever match-up to grace five different major domestic finals in English football history.
Liverpool have had the upper hand in recent encounters in finals, with two penalty shootout victories in 2021-22 in both the FA Cup and League Cup showpieces as well as a recent 4-1 drubbing in the Premier League at Anfield. With that defeat fresh in their minds, this is a huge task for a Chelsea side still finding their feet this season with a huge turnaround of players in the last 18 months under the new ownership.
However, If the Blues can muster one of their best performances of the season and win the League Cup final this weekend, it would indeed offer Chelsea a guaranteed route to European competition next season, specifically the Europa Conference League. This could potentially relieve some pressure on the team for the remainder of the season, as they would have secured continental football regardless of their final position in the Premier League.
Having this assurance could arguably propel Chelsea to perform more freely in the Premier League, potentially leading to improved results and a higher finish in the league table. With the burden of securing European qualification lifted, they might be able to focus more on their domestic campaign and aim for a top-six finish or even higher. Additionally, the confidence boost from winning a major trophy could have a hugely positive impact on this young team and aid their performance in the league going forward.
However, it’s worth noting that Chelsea would need to find a great deal more consistency in order to achieve a top-six finish, with the Premier League so competitive and every single match so crucial. Currently, there are just three points separating five teams between Brighton in seventh place (38 points) and Wolves in 11th (35 points), with the Blues sitting in 10th also on 35 points. Sixth-placed Man Utd have created a six-point gap to Brighton with a run of four consecutive wins which creates a big ask for Chelsea to try and reach the top six, although outside the top three, no team have shown a great deal of consistency this season, even the Red Devils, despite their current upturn in form.
Since the start of December Chelsea have won six of their 12 league games, only the top three teams have won more in that time (Liverpool 10, Arsenal and Man City 8). Furthermore, this season could see European places filter down to at least seventh and quite possibly eighth, so Chelsea will have a fair chance of reaching such a spot if they were to lose against Liverpool on Sunday. The Opta predictor model currently gives the Blues a 5.9% chance of finishing in the top six in the Premier League this season and a 36.1% chance of a top eight finish. Across all teams’ last 10 matches in the Premier League, Chelsea are operating in eighth with 16 points (W5 D1 L4), albeit just three points fewer than the likes of Arsenal (19) which shows there’s such a fine line between top-four form and mid-table, currently with so much at stake and such strong competition from all teams in the league every point is precious in the run-in with the old cliché of taking it ‘one game at a time’ in order to build a winning run towards the end of the season
One way the Blues can move up the league and stay in the top eight would be to start beating the teams they face who are starting the day in those higher positions. Only two of Chelsea’s 10 Premier League victories this season have been against sides sitting in the top eight (v Tottenham in November and v Brighton in December). While they’ve faired very well in a few games against Man City and Arsenal (D3), its clear they need to build on those good performances (like recently against Man City). With seven of their remaining 13 league games coming against teams currently above them in the League – lifting a major trophy on Sunday could really lift this young team and spur them on to finish the season strong, with the added bonus of securing European football in the process.
The League Cup Final
Chelsea against Liverpool is a game that rarely fails to excite, especially when these heavyweights of the English game lock horns in a Cup Final!
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