I have some really good memories of Monza thanks to four podium finishes for McLaren.  It started in 1994 when I finished 3rd in the McLaren-Peugeot, one of five podium finishes that year. That was a great result after qualifying 7th.  I also qualified 7th the following year, which was our first season with Mercedes engines and, in a race full of incidents, including a red flag, I avoided trouble and finished 2nd.  I was on the podium again in 1996, but then I had to wait until 2000, when I finished 2nd again and set the fastest lap.  

The race win that got away from me was in 1999, when I qualified on pole, opened up a great lead  and then spun off on lap 30 after taking the wrong gear at the Rettifilo chicane. I was pretty upset about that, a race I should have won, but that’s racing. Things can go wrong, you need everything to go 100% right, and this is another reason why no one should think that Max Verstappen’s domination is easy.  There is nothing easy about winning a Formula 1 Grand Prix!

Who is going to finish 2nd?  That’s the question we need to focus on if Max is going to continue winning every race in his Red Bull.  He is really driving brilliantly and the car has the performance to qualify on pole which is a nice advantage to have. 

Checo Perez should be able to join Max on the front row if he can put together a clean run in qualifying, but we really have a 4-team fight for the other top positions on the grid. Mercedes, Aston Martin, Ferrari and McLaren will all be pushing for the top three rows.

This weekend is the second time we will see the Alternative Tyre Allocation format which means teams have 11 sets of dry tyres instead of 13 and they have to run Hard tyres in Q1 qualifying, Mediums in Q2 and Softs in Q1.  That means a compromise and adds some unpredictability.

Based on what we have seen in the Netherlands, Aston Martin has made a step forward and Fernando Alonso is looking strong again. He had some difficult races between Austria and Belgium, but in Zandvoort he qualified well, raced strongly to finish 2nd and took the fastest lap. He will be pushing to carry that  momentum into Monza, a race he has won twice before.

Lewis Hamilton has won the Italian Grand Prix five times.  In Zandvoort he felt that Mercedes’ performance was really strong, so although the race strategy was not ideal, the car’s had plenty of speed.  We have to expect him and George Russell to be in the middle of the qualifying battle.

Ferrari has not had the speed or consistency to this year, so it’s hard to see Charles Leclerc or Carlos Sainz fighting for a podium at the team’s home race.  The team is only 14 points behind Aston Martin in the World Championship for Constructors, but that does not show the true picture.  Fernando has scored three quarters of Aston Martin’s points while Carlos and Charles are very evenly matched.  The Ferrari is, on average, the fourth-best car this season.

Lando Norris qualified second in Silverstone, third in Hungary and second again in Zandvoort, so although he was disappointed with McLaren’s race pace in the Netherlands I think he will arrive in Monza with a good possibility of a strong result.  Remember that McLaren won this race in 2021, finishing 1-2, so although we all expect Max to dominate, do not be surprised if we see a McLaren causing problems for Mercedes, Aston Martin and Ferrari in the fight for the podium.