HOW much does a football fixture’s recent history dictate what is to come?

In truth, the answer is very little, but as a wise man once said, you have to know the past to understand the present, while another cleverclogs Mark Twain insisted that history never repeats itself, but it does rhyme.

On that note then it’s worth acknowledging that Liverpool are unbeaten against Newcastle in 13. It’s also possibly pertinent that ten of the last 15 meetings have seen a goal scored inside the opening 20 minutes.

That last detail feels like simply a quirk, just one of those odd coincidences that occur when you cobble together results over several seasons, featuring different players, under different managers, in different circumstances. But then it’s recalled that in their season’s curtain-raiser two weeks ago the Magpies were 2-1 up after 16 minutes when hosting Aston Villa, while Liverpool scored early that weekend too, before conceding last Saturday just three minutes in. They had been breached prior to that as well, only to be saved by the tightest of offsides.

With a raucous St James’ Park demanding frenetic entertainment from the off, this does not feel like a game where each side feels the other out.

Over 1.5 goals in the first half offers up 21/20

If early drama is entirely plausible don’t discount that extending across the full 90 either given that the Reds are chaos personified right now, devastating for the most part up front but disconcertingly prone to mishap at the back.

Starting with the positives, Luis Diaz has two in two, Diogo Jota looked much brighter against Bournemouth than at Stamford Bridge, while Newcastle are one of Mo Salah’s favourite opponents, previously racking up 11 goal involvements in 13.

But it was the announcement of Dominic Szoboszlai as a highly impactful component of Jurgen Klopp’s side in transition that really caught the eye at Anfield at the weekend. With 14 progressive carries, three successful dribbles, the most successful completed passes of any player on the park, and 11.6 km covered, the Hungarian shone on his home debut, making Liverpool tick throughout.

The 22-year-old is already one of the Merseysiders’ most important players, with presumably half of his belongings still unpacked.

Back Szoboszlai to have over 0.5 shots on target at 5/4

Yet if the Reds’ front-line have picked up where they left off last term, terrorizing defences at pace and with ingenuity, at the back there is also a continuation of last season’s state of affairs, with chasms of space in the channels routinely evident against the Cherries, gaps that Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak can take full advantage of.

It is a failing long recognized and much discussed but perhaps presently it is exacerbated by having a half-formed midfield ahead of the problem because though admittedly Jordan Henderson and Fabinho were out-of-sorts going into this summer, their positional discipline alone is missed right now,. Moreover, with Thiago still unavailable, Liverpool’s midfield three in the North-East might well be made up of two novices to English football and Cody Gakpo reimagined to little effect.

It’s probably not unrelated that only four teams have so far committed more fouls than Liverpool in 2023/24 as they endeavour to make do in the middle.

Over 2.5 cards for the visitors tempts at 5/4

Is it here where Newcastle will get the most joy on Sunday? Very possibly, particularly if Sandro Tonali puts in another Pirlo-esque performance as he did on his debut. Bruno Guimaraes meanwhile is one of the best around at exploiting space and maybe it’s telling that the Brazilian missed both defeats last season to injury.

In his one and only outing against Liverpool, since joining the Premier League, the pass-master was by some distance Newcastle’s best outfield player.

Really though, when it comes to the home side’s strengths it’s hard to look past their forward thinking, a commitment to construct sweeping attacks that was largely curtailed against Manchester City but reduced Aston Villa a week earlier to total disarray.

Even accounting for their blunt showing at the Etihad, only Brighton have had more shots on target at this early juncture, and only Brighton have created more big chances, and with Isak and company contributing to a 17.9% conversion rate of those chances we confidently veer away from the recent past, one that informs us that Newcastle have failed to score in their last three home games vs Liverpool.

What did Mark Twain know about football anyway?

Isak to score, booking merchant Anthony Gordon to be shown a card, and over 9.5 corners total is a shout at 13/1