WHEN backing players to shine in Australia and New Zealand one of the most obvious considerations is whether their team is capable of going deep in the tournament. We need only look back four years ago, to France, to acknowledge the importance of this.
There, Ellen White, Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe shared the leading goal-scorer merit, even if Rapinoe claimed the Golden Boot courtesy of assisting more, and it’s no coincidence that England reached the semi-finals, while the latter two had seven games to showcase their brilliance as USWNT won a third consecutive Women’s World Cup.
The vast majority of previous Golden Boot winners have fired sixes and sevens and it would take one hell of an early blitzkrieg to rack up that number in the group stages and last 16. Longevity is needed, as illustrated by six of the last eight Golden Boot winners spearheading their side to World Cup glory.
Regarding assists it was a similar tale, with America’s Sam Mewis and Holland’s Sherida Spitse carving out four apiece. The USWNT and the Netherlands made up the finalists.
Trinity Rodman expects the USWNT to win the World Cup this summer for the third time in a row 👀 pic.twitter.com/QoCJM2ULH0
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) July 10, 2023
So before we hitch our bets to certain individuals it’s necessary to identify which teams are accomplished and complete enough to still be in the competition mid-August, which naturally leads us to the all-conquering tournament favourites USWNT, a team that has conceded only once in eight games in 2023, averaging 2.3 per 90 at the other end.
USA are 5/2 to make it three World Cups in a row
To secure the Golden Boot this time out, Alex Morgan and Sophia Smith are best fancied but doubts persist about whether this is going to be Morgan’s tournament, the 34-year-old possibly taking a back seat to Smith and the emerging Trinity Rodman. And if that is indeed the case, it makes sense to commit to Smith at fours, especially as USWNT open their account against World Cup debutants Vietnam.
Last Friday, Vietnam succumbed to a 9-0 dismantling at the hands of Spain in a competition warm-up and it is entirely conceivable that Smith and co run riot in their first game, with the Portland Thorns star gaining an early lead in the goalscoring stakes that she only builds on.
Back Sophia Smith to score the most goals Down Under @ 4/1
For viable alternatives, Spain’s Jennifer Hermoso stands out, with La Roja also anticipated to navigate their way to the quarters and beyond.
Having adapted well to 15 players boycotting the national side last autumn, in protest against their coach, Spain have comfortably romped their way through 2023 to date, their only defeat occurring in Australia, a loss partly attributed to Jorge Vilda unsuccessfully trialling a 5-3-2 formation.
Sophia Smith vs. Washington Spirit on Friday:
✅ Second hat trick of the season
✅ Youngest player to score 30 NWSL goals
✅ Four straight games scoringReady for her first World Cup 😤
(via @NWSL)pic.twitter.com/W09fqMz0EG
— B/R Football (@brfootball) June 24, 2023
Indeed, experimentation has been rife from Vilda, but whether deployed as a false nine or on the right of a front three, Hermoso is usually his go-to, the former Barcelona Femeni ace boasting a remarkable 46 goals in 93 appearances for her country.
What most intrigues about Spain’s all-time record goal-scorer is that her six goals this year have all come in twos. First up for La Roja meanwhile in Group C is Costa Rica, a side that has won only two of their last 16.
It could get ugly.
Back Hermoso to score at least two goals v Costa Rica @ 11/10
What is slightly off-putting about backing a Spanish player for the Golden Boot is the sheer array of attacking talents they possess, prompting concerns they may share the wealth around, and this line of thinking also applies – to an extent – to England in the assist market.
🇪🇸 @Jennihermoso = Clinical finisher. #HBD | #FIFAWWC pic.twitter.com/k1gcVghXjd
— FIFA Women’s World Cup (@FIFAWWC) May 9, 2023
The Lionesses are another widely tipped to go far and this is despite being in the tougher half of the draw.
This, however, is precisely what difference-makers are for and Sarina Wiegman can call upon a number of creatives to find a way, namely Lauren Hemp, Chloe Kelly and Lauren James down the flanks and Ella Toone scheming centrally.
Of these, Hemp is joint-favourite in the assists market, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with backing the Manchester City winger to out-assist the other main contenders Morgan and Spain’s Alexia Putellas. Creating 2.5 chances per 90 in 2022/23 is testament to the 22-year-old’s conjuring skills.
Yet how can we look past Kelly at a highly generous 13/1, particularly factoring in her blistering form this past year.
Across 2022/23 in the WSL, only Chelsea’s Guro Reiten posted more assists while nobody came close to Kelly for chances created, a staggering 73 all told.
If last summer’s Euro heroine gets sufficient minutes, she can feature prominently in the outrights.
Back Chloe Kelly to give most assists Down Under at 13/1
If these three players have been picked, in part, because of the elite teams they represent, it’s only fair to end by highlighting some outstanding talents who likely won’t get to participate much beyond the group stage. All of whom are forwards.
Jamaica’s Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw was a revelation last term, notching 20 for Manchester City at a rate of 0.94 per 90. If the Reggae Girlz manage to usurp either France or Brazil and progress to the knock-outs it will very likely be due to their superstar’s lethal finishing.
Zambia’s Racheal Kundananji meanwhile fired 25 in 29 for Madrid CFF last season, and amidst a line-up that places great emphasis on attack and adventure – much less so on keeping clean sheets – can light up Group C alongside her strike partner Barbra Banda.
Last but by no means least, there is Nigeria’s Asisat Oshoala to consider, an explosive, prolific striker who has scored a ridiculous number for Barcelona, 83 in 89 at the most recent count.
In what is an open group, Oshoala’s goal-threat can prove decisive in helping the Super Eagles reach the knock-outs for only the third time in their history.