DRINK it in Toon fans. For only the third time in the club’s history, Newcastle have qualified for UEFA’s premier club competition.
In fact, it has been over 10 years since the Magpies last featured in European competition at all, when they reached the Europa League quarter-finals in 2012-13 under Alan Pardew.
Only in 1997-98 and 2002-03 have they ever participated in the European Cup/Champions League. You can now add 2023-24 to the list.
It has been a meteoric ascent. When Eddie Howe woke up on the morning of his first game as Newcastle boss – November 20th 2021 – his side were 19th in the Premier League table and without a win in their opening 11 league matches of that 2021-22 season.
Indeed, Howe would only manage to win one of his first nine Premier League games in charge of the club. On January 21st 2022, Newcastle were still 19th, had one win in 20 league matches, and were four points adrift of safety. Champions League football was but a distant pipe dream, even under the club’s new ownership. This was a team fighting just to stay in the top-flight in 2022.
But what has followed has been nothing short of remarkable. Newcastle have won 31 and lost just 10 of their last 55 Premier League fixtures. What the club have achieved in 2022-23 isn’t a flash in the pan. Since Howe’s first match in November 2021, Newcastle have accumulated the fourth-most points in the Premier League. Their top four form stretches back well into last season.
Just eight different teams have managed to beat Eddie Howe’s Newcastle in a Premier League match and just three – Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City – have done so more than once.
In 2022-23, only Man City (4) have lost fewer Premier League matches than Newcastle (5). Even if they lose their final game of the season at Chelsea, this season is guaranteed to be their fewest ever defeats suffered in a top-flight campaign.
The Magpies have hit 70 points for only the fifth time in a Premier League season, and have earned their highest finish since 2002-03 (3rd).
It hasn’t all been plain sailing, though. Newcastle actually drew half of their first 22 Premier League matches this season. Before 2022-23, the highest any side had finished when drawing 11 or more of their first 22 matches in a season in Premier League history was 7th (Everton in 2010-11), with the average finish by sides to do so being 13th.
The World Cup break also did not help Newcastle’s push for Europe. They went into the break on a run of five straight Premier League wins, and while they won their first match after Qatar 2022 (3-0 at Leicester), they then embarked on a run of just one win in eight games.
After that win over Leicester, Newcastle were 2nd in the table and seven points clear of fifth. But then following that run of one win in eight, they went into a match against Wolves on March 12th down in sixth, and seven points adrift of the top four, albeit with three games in hand over Tottenham in 4th.
Newcastle won that match against Wolves – and it would be the first of eight wins in their next nine matches. It’s a run that saw them all but cement their place in the top four. And a draw against Leicester on Monday night was enough to finally confirm their place in next season’s Champions League.
The Magpies’ top four push was spearheaded by the goals of Miguel Almirón (11), Alexander Isak (10), and Callum Wilson (18) – who are the first ever trio of Toon players to score 10+ in the same Premier League season.
What helped Newcastle massively is that their goals all largely came over different periods to help them consistently pick up points over the season: seven of Almirón’s 11 strikes came from November to December, Isak scored eight of his 10 from January to April, while Wilson netted 11 of his 18 from April to May – a record by a player from April onwards in a single Premier League campaign.
But what has truly been the catalyst for Newcastle’s European push has been their defensive record. No team has conceded fewer Premier League goals this term than Howe’s side (32), while only Man Utd have more clean sheets than them (14).
In their first 20 league games this season, Newcastle conceded just 11 goals and kept 12 clean sheets – only five sides have ever conceded fewer in their first 20 matches of a Premier League campaign. That defensive record helped them lose just one match in that time – to a 98th-minute Fábio Carvalho goal against Liverpool in August – and ultimately gave them the platform to finish in the top four.
The clean sheets have rather dried up since (2 in their last 17), but that has been counter-acted by the goals of Isak and Wilson.
The underlying numbers have been excellent too – only Man City and Brighton have averaged a higher xG/game in the 2022-23 Premier League than Newcastle (1.94), and only title-winners Man City have averaged a lower xG against per match than the Magpies (1.02).
This has been a deserved push for the top four. One of the league’s best defensive records has been coupled by the goals of Almirón, Isak, and Wilson – a perfect blend that has seen Newcastle qualify for the Champions League with a game to spare.
