TO what extent will Everton’s highly surprising Bank Holiday thrashing of Brighton impact on events this weekend?
It can’t not impact on proceedings, that much is obvious, with both teams in unfamiliar headspaces as they take on opponents embroiled in a title race.
The Seagulls will be wounded, stunned. They are a champion boxer who has just been bopped square on the temple and can’t figure out why the world isn’t upright anymore.
All season long, theirs has been a success propelled by an unshakable belief in their methods as much as the methods themselves, and now their fluid, high-pressing, possession-based brilliance has been picked apart five times over.
They will travel up to the Emirates accompanied by self-doubt because their other defeats this term can all be wholly or partly explained away, but this one cannot.
As for Everton, they went to the south coast winless in seven and weighed down by the grim reality of residing in the bottom three. A more pro-active approach out of possession in recent weeks improved them but only marginally so, and the resulting draws simply weren’t cutting it. What was needed – and fast – was a big, rousing, statement victory but sadly all of the evidence suggested this was a hopeless hope.
Now that such a resounding declaration has been made, however, the Toffees entertain a formidable foe this Sunday full of confidence, a commodity that has been in scant supply around Finch Farm and Goodison for such a long time. Add in too a ferocious crowd demanding a percentage of commitment in three figures and of course the frankly ridiculous mauling of Brighton becomes a factor. Of course, the narrative has been altered.
Everton looked broken beyond repair. Now, they’re on the mend.
And yet, for all that the Toffees’ threat-level has been increased, Manchester City will not be unduly troubled by what they witnessed at the Amex. The visitors had 22% of the possession but somehow fired home a hatful, matching their goal-haul to their shots on target. Abdoulaye Doucoure scored twice after previously scoring that number all season. Dwight McNeil, who has so often flattered to deceive since joining the blues, converted two beauties.
It was that sort of game. An outlier.
Moreover, in all four of their most recent title triumphs City have had to visit Goodison late in the season for a must-win clash and prevailed each time. They are unbeaten in 12 in this fixture, while Pep Guardiola has encountered Sean Dyche on 15 occasions and is yet to be bested.
They are a machine perfectly honed for such a challenge, unbeaten in 20 across all comps and averaging 3 goals per 90 in that period. In Kevin De Bruyne they have a game-changer boasting a league-high of 16 assists. In Erling Haaland they possess a phenomenon who has single-handedly scored three more than Everton.
At the back, a shortage of clean-sheets – just six dating back to early October – is a minor issue, as too is the timing of this fixture, slap-bang in the middle of a Champions League double-header with Real Madrid.
Really though, this is the very best side around in the very best of shapes.
Arsenal vs. Brighton
It’s an assessment that Arsenal would agree with, and bitterly so having seen their significant advantage at the top decimated down the home straight, leaving them playing catch-up.
The Gunners deserve a huge amount of kudos for beating Newcastle last weekend, knowing that anything less would have effectively ended their title aspirations, and conceivably they will face the same situation on Sunday, playing after their rivals.
Again, there will be no margin for error against a top eight side. Again, their mettle will be tested to the fullest degree.
That’s because, for all that Brighton will be questioning why they were collectively under-par against Everton they will continue playing the same way and continue racking up the shots.
Even amidst a heavy defeat, Roberto De Zerbi’s men accrued 23 attempts on goal, adding to a seasonal average for shots on target only bettered by Manchester City in 2022/23. In this regard, Alexis Mac Allister leads the way, with 81 attempts all season.
Additionally, it is interesting to note how Brighton typically react to set-backs, one of which was at home to Arsenal in December, losing 4-2.
All told, the Seagulls have lost nine times prior to last Monday, responding with a win on seven occasions, several of them comprehensive. Indeed, the aggregate score-line from these seven retaliations is nothing short of emphatic, amounting to 28-6.
The Emirates of course will throw up a trickier challenge, a place where Arsenal have scored 3.5 goals per 90 from their last six showings, and from a high-functioning front-line it is Martin Odegaard who presently stands out, notching five in five.
Together with Saka, Martinelli and a reborn Jesus, the Norwegian will definitely have been watching Brighton’s horror-show against the Toffees, and a defence that uncharacteristically, but easily, succumbed to disarray. He would have liked when he seen.
