Gary Mabbutt: Who will finish in the top four?

WITH Arsenal and Man City almost assured of a top two finish, except for an almighty collapse where either side would have to lose the majority of their final 10/11 games, let’s take a look at who will fill the final two places in the top four and earn themselves Champions League football in 2023-24.

The prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using Opta’s team rankings based on historical and recent performance and betting market odds. The model considers the strength of opponents and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

Man Utd – 91.4%

Opta’s Predictor model puts Man Utd in a very strong position to secure a Champions League spot heading into the backend of the season, something not many would have predicted in the middle of August following defeats in their opening two games and in the midst of a power struggle between the club, the new manager Erik ten Hag and Cristiano Ronaldo.

A run of just two defeats in their next 17 Premier League games (W12 D3) propelled them up the table, while the Dutch manager also steered them to their first trophy in six years with their 2-0 victory against Newcastle in the League Cup final in February. If they can safely navigate the next three games without their essential midfield enforcer Casemiro, they will surely finish comfortably inside the top four. In league games the Brazilian has missed this season, the Red Devils have a lower win percentage (43%) and have conceded more shots (16.1) and goals (1.7) on average as well as fewer points per game (1.4) compared to when Casemiro has featured.

Tottenham – 25.1%

With all the turmoil surrounding Antonio Conte’s recent outburst and the Italian eventually leaving his role by mutual consent, many are predicting that Tottenham will indeed remain ‘Spursy’ and finish the season with a whimper and fall out of the top four in which they currently reside. The Opta Predictor currently gives them a 25.1% probability of keeping their spot in the Champions League places, lower than the respective chances of Newcastle (41%) and Liverpool (28.3%), even with the Reds seven points adrift of Spurs going into the weekend’s matches.

Although Spurs have played two more games than the two sides below them (3 more than 7^th placed Brighton) and despite the negativity surrounding their prospects moving forward without Antonio Conte, only Arsenal (W22 G66) and Man City (W19 G67) have won more games and scored more goals than Tottenham (W15 G52) in the Premier League this season. Therefore, they have done some things pretty well in 2022-23 to still be in this position at the beginning of April, even if consistency has not been a strong point. Over their last 10 Premier League games, Spurs have earned 16 points, more than four of the six teams directly below them in the table (Brentford – 19, Brighton – 18).

If those six sides maintain their current points per game averages across their final games, it will be very tight between Spurs and Brighton for that final Champions League spot with the Seagulls slightly edging it on current form, while we could potentially see fourth place clinched via goal difference.

Brighton – 13.5%

Having started the season with four wins out of six under Graham Potter (D1 L1), Brighton’s season was potentially up in the air after Chelsea poached their manager along with a few other personnel. However, Roberto De Zerbi has not only since steadied the ship but taken Brighton forward quite remarkably, giving them a real chance of securing European football for the first time in the club’s history. Although it took a few games to gain his first win with the Seagulls (ironically a 4-1 victory against Graham Potter’s Chelsea), the south coast club have not looked back since. Indeed, since (and including) that win in October, only Arsenal (41) have scored more goals, only Liverpool (89) have had more shots on target and only the top three (Arsenal 76%, Man City 69% and Man Utd 60%) have a better win percentage than Brighton (31 goals, 86 shots on target and 57% win rate, 8/14).

Newcastle – 41%

Newcastle’s excellent improvement under Eddie Howe has been based around a solid defence. The Magpies have conceded the fewest goals this season (19) and have registered the joint-most clean sheets (12, level with Arsenal), with only three sides across Europe’s big five leagues conceding fewer per game this season. In fact, among the previous 24 teams in Premier League history to average ≤0.73 goals per game in a single campaign, not one of those sides finished outside the top four.

However, Newcastle must overcome a recent downturn in both results and shipping goals to maintain their push for that elusive Champions League place come the end of the season. The Magpies have lost two of their last four Premier League games (W2) having lost just one in their first 23 beforehand in 2022-23 (W11 D11), conceding six goals in the process, as many as they had in their previous 15 league games combined. Their games in hand on Spurs give them an excellent chance of grabbing that fourth spot if they can get back to their previous solid ways.

Liverpool – 28.3%

Liverpool’s indifferent season could see them finish outside the top four for the first time since 2015-16 (8^th). They’ve been hugely inconsistent for a side that were chasing a quadruple this time last year. They find themselves seven points behind fourth-placed Tottenham (with two games in hand) and five behind Newcastle (who also have games in hand on Spurs), so they have it all to do if they are to earn Champions League football again for next season. They’ve regularly mixed good spells (four consecutive wins in November/December) with bad (D1 L3 at the start of 2023) and their last two Premier League games probably sum up their season in a nutshell – a remarkable 7-0 victory against Man Utd followed by a drab 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth. However, they are a team that have finished with 90+ points in the three of their last four league campaigns, so if they can build on their form in their last six league games (W4 D1 L1) where they’ve conceded just one goal (scored 13) – against none other than Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea in their next three, then they may just give themselves a fighting chance.

Brentford – 0.4%

While the Opta Predictor gives Brentford just a 0.4% probability of a top four finish, the Bees are in fact the most in-form side among the candidates with only Arsenal and Man City (both 22) gaining more points than Brentford (19) in their last 10 Premier League games. Lying eighth in the table, the west London side’s fixtures may have a big impact on their relatively low chances of a top four finish in the Predictor, as they still have to play six of the seven sides above them in the table. Although this can be seen in two ways, as while it seems a tough ask, it also allows them to take points from the teams around them, with the prospect of achieving something incredible for a side who were only promoted to the Premier League for the first time last season.