IF recent history is anything to go by, the 16th green at TPC Scottsdale will be covered in the stuff at some point, but the field for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open is anything but rubbish.

The 16th, of course, is the signature hole both for the course and the tournament – a stadium par-3 that is entirely surrounded by hospitality units and bleachers. The latter is mostly populated by a community of hammered frat boys re-creating the febrile atmosphere of the Munich Beer Hall Putsch, although they mostly just want to get themselves on telly thumping their bare chests and tossing plastic glasses still full of beer at the green rather than overthrowing an unsteady democracy (odd things keep happening in America though; there’s maybe more crossover in this Venn diagram than we might initially think).

And the field? It’s the strongest this long-standing event has had, at least since the world rankings have been in existence. No less than eight of the world’s top 10 will be teeing it up and there are also 19 major championship winners entered.

Just two weeks ago the golf world was treated to a final round duel in the Dubai Desert Classic coined Rory versus Reed. Might this week be an alliterative repeat? Rory versus Rahm has a nice ring to it and they are both undoubtedly in sensational form.

McIlroy’s last eight official starts have all been tied eighth or better, seven of them tied fourth or better, with three wins. Rahm’s last seven are all tied seventh or better, six of them tied fourth or better, with four wins. The Northern Irishman has played the event just the once when closing with a fine 64 to land 13th two years ago. The Spaniard, who went to college at nearby Arizona State, has been a regular visitor to the tournament but has a curious record: he’s never finished outside the top 20 in seven starts but has a best of tied fifth on debut in 2015 (when still an amateur).

Naturally, the pair lead the betting. But do they make our staking plan?

Each Way – Patrick Cantlay at 20/1

There’s no doubting that the top two are exceptional golfers in wonderful form. They are also up against a decent field and McIlroy admitted to a bit of rust last time out (despite the win) while Rahm’s peculiar record puts me off a little. So instead the top vote goes to a golfer who made a sparkling debut in the tournament last year and whose memories of finishing second might put the bit between his teeth. Patrick Cantlay eventually lost out to Scottie Scheffler 12 months ago but he had makeable putts on the 17th and 18th greens in regulation play, and then again in extra holes before being beaten. There are some golfers who that might break, but Cantlay is a nuggetty type who might thrive on narrowing his eyes and having another go.

That icy temperament might also be useful for dealing with the wild galleries – a golfer needs to either ride the mayhem or enjoy treating it as white noise. Cantlay is the latter. He also just has a very good record playing desert golf. He’s been a winner and three times second at TPC Summerlin, and also second and twice ninth at PGA West.

Each Way – Tom Kim at 33/1

Now let’s head in the opposite direction and take a golfer who might look to make the most of the stadium hole palaver – Korea’s Tom Kim. We’ve seen time and time again in his brief career at the top level that he loves playing to the galleries but also, crucially, that it doesn’t distract him.

There’s more to him than mere showman, however. He recorded 23rd at the US Open last summer, then finished third at the Scottish Open and made the cut in the Open when debuting on linksland. He maintained impetus, heading back to the States to land a first title in the Wyndham Championship and he started his 2022/23 season with victory in the desert at TPC Summerlin. He opened the calendar year with fifth on debut at Plantation (a track that calls for aggression much like this week’s test) and was sixth last time out, back in the desert at The American Express.

Each Way – Sam Burns at 50/1

Final pick is four-time PGA Tour winner Sam Burns whose case might be a little stronger than it appears at first glance. He opened the year with plenty of rust evident in laps of 70-75 at the Tournament of Champions before he closed 67-69. When last seen he carded a pair of 64s for 11th at The American Express. Meanwhile, at TPC Scottsdale, he has missed three of four cuts, but in 2021 he sat inside the top four through 36 holes and closed nicely after a poor third round. His best golf has mostly come on Bermuda grass greens including three of his four wins and a play-off defeat at the top level, and also his win on the second tier.