TEAM Melli are only four FIFA ranking places adrift of USMNT, and are only one behind Wales, yet this still feels like a favourable opening challenge for England as they embark on their World Cup adventure.
Granted, it’s not quite Panama, the international minnow hit for six, four years ago, but if Gareth Southgate’s squad has serious designs on going deep in Qatar ’22 this is an early match-up to be navigated, not feared, against a side that have the capabilities to beat the Three Lions, but very likely won’t.
That is not to suggest for one moment of course that Iran will be pushovers. Theirs is a World Cup pedigree that has seen them qualify for four of the last six tournaments, drawing with Portugal last time out and keeping Argentina at bay for 90 minutes – but not 91 – in Brazil ’14. As recently as September, Iran beat Uruguay in a friendly before sharing the spoils with Senegal, a possible opponent for England in the last 16.
In Sardar Azmoun, they possess a genuine attacking threat, or rather they may possess him, the ‘Iranian Messi’ nursing a muscle-tear in his calf picked up on Champions League duty with Bayer Leverkusen in early October. The 27-year-old is 50/50 to feature and even then some rustiness can be expected.
🇮🇷 Mehdi Taremi in Liga Portugal this season:
⚽ Goals – 6 4️⃣
🅰️ Assists – 5 🥇
🏹 Shots – 38 🥉
🌡️ Rating – 7.56 🥉 pic.twitter.com/cqIZr1diKO— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) November 15, 2022
Mehdi Taremi, meanwhile, has 21 direct goal involvements in 19 for Porto this term, figures that have reportedly piqued the interest of AC Milan. With former Brighton winger Alireza Jahanbakhsh making up a potentially potent front three, Iran have the personnel to trouble England on the counter.
Behind the trio, Saeid Ezatolahi is a key component of Carlos Queiroz’s masterplan, a defensive midfielder who covers every blade of grass, then covers them all again, and he affords a 4-1-4-1 set-up when Iran show ambition. We will see scant evidence of this in Al Rayyan on Monday however, with a well-drilled 4-4-1-1 anticipated, that provides two banks of four for England to find a way through. Iran will be a proverbial tough nut to crack as evidenced by Queiroz repeatedly texting his players in recent weeks, detailing hyper-analytical aspects of Southgate’s offensive ploys and how to nullify them.
In short, Team Melli will be delighted, and then some, should they secure a goalless stalemate only straying from the game itself and looking at the tournament and its habits, we find that 0-0s have been in short supply in recent times, with only one in the last 16 opening games. Furthermore, the last two tournaments have produced 87 goals in the first round of fixtures compared to 64 in the two before that, which strongly suggests the first knockings in World Cups are no longer the cagey affairs they used to be.
On to England then, a side that remarkably haven’t won in six outings, and that’s remarkable because it’s easy to forget their sustained poor output amidst the hullabaloo and hype as we prepare for the greatest show on earth. Instead, it’s 1966 and all that, and can the Three Lions go all the way, and nobody is really mentioning right now that this is England’s longest run without a win since 1994.
Still, the spirit in the camp is exceedingly good by all accounts and summer losses to Hungary – as revealing as they were at the time – no longer feel overly relevant with the club form of individuals ebbing and flowing since. The cliff-dive of Harry Maguire’s reputation and confidence remains a concern naturally, especially given his heightened status within the squad, and there have been poor returns in the Premier League this season from Raheem Sterling, Mason Mount and Jordan Henderson. Overall, though, it has to be said that England appear to be in decent fettle at present.
🏴 What. A. Moment. 🏴
Throwback to when Harry Kane scored the goal that sent England to their first major tournament final since 1966 😍#ITVFootball #Euro2020 pic.twitter.com/QBCG7SIqmj
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) December 24, 2021
This is in no small part due to having Harry Kane up top, a player who thrives in those micro-seconds on the big stage that tend to separate the good from the great. Twelve league goals in 14 for Spurs is proof enough of his current sharpness, but it’s his prolificacy on international duty that really justifies pre-match optimism. A goal every 82 minutes going all the way back to England’s Euro victory over Germany is a sublime return given the strength of England’s opponents in recent months.
Having a viable Golden Boot contender in their ranks is – to state the bleeding obvious – a major asset for the Three Lions but elsewhere there are other means to scalpel through a stubborn and solid Iranian defence, namely a 22-year-old who quite possibly committed to a Gazza-inspired haircut one tournament too early.
Phil Foden has conjured up an assist every three games since making his international bow two years ago while at club level his sharp-shooting this term would be lauded considerably more if not over-shadowed by Erling Haaland’s ridiculous numbers. This could be Foden’s time, his coronation, and if it is, no amount of tactical masterplanning from Queiroz can stop him.
The same goes too for Bukayo Saka, who is absolutely flying at present, while the growing influence of Jude Bellingham on England’s midfield could additionally be a factor. Throw in Kieran Trippier’s superb stats this season – only Kevin De Bruyne and Andreas Pereira have created more chances than Newcastle’s right-back in 2022/23 – and the biggest positive for Gareth Southgate’s men this winter is they do not have to rely on Kane, a player so clinical that many other sides would.
