THE sight of Brighton & Hove Albion going three games without a goal despite racking up 54 shots in the process has brought back some bad memories for the club’s fans. The Sussex club have underperformed their expected goals figure in all five of their full Premier League campaigns and, after a pretty clinical start under Graham Potter before he departed for Chelsea, recent games have seen the spectre of that underperformance start to haunt Brighton once more. The club are too solid defensively and create too many good opportunities (some will eventually go in, in the form of a Leandro Trossard hat-trick; other scoring variations are available). But 10 or so games into the 2022-23 season, what light can xG and related metrics shine on how your club is doing?
The Attacking Overperformers
In 2021-22 Manchester City scored 99 goals and had an expected goals figure of 98.8. That’s an alignment so neat it should be put behind glass and displayed in a museum, but this season, in news that will terrify rivals, City have started to massively outperform their xG. Some say that could be down to integrating one of the most complete centre-forwards in world football into their starting XI, and guess what, they are right. Erling Haaland currently has 15 league goals from an xG of 8.8. He’s really good; who knew?
We should also give a shout out to Leicester City and Fulham who are +5.0 and +5.1 respectively. Both sides are doing well going forwards but are periodically let down by defensive issues. Even so, Fulham having someone like Aleksandar Mitrovic (8 goals, 7 xG) scoring at an on-par rate means that someone like Harrison Reed chipping in with a more speculative two goals from 0.5 xG is the icing on the cake rather than an act of desperation.
The Attacking Underperformers
For all the talk of Brighton in the introduction, it’s West Ham United who are the biggest underperformers so far in 2022-23, roughly six goals under where they should be based on the chances they’ve had this season. Failing to score with two of the three penalties they’ve been awarded doesn’t help, but neither does missing a hatful of very solid opportunities within the six yard box.
Other underperforming teams include Wolves, Everton, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa, two of whom have already changed their manager this season. Once the narrative of a campaign gets away from you things can turn sour pretty quickly.
The Defensive Overperformers
So Everton are underperforming in attack but that’s countered by their frankly huge overperformance at the back. Thanks in the main to some elite goalkeeping from Jordan Pickford this season, Frank Lampard’s team have let in 12 goals (excluding own goals) from an xG of more than 18. The Toffees have been credited with a defensive revival this season and on raw numbers that is indeed the case, but how sustainable it is when their opponents begin scoring against them at a more usual rate remains to be seen.
The Defensive Underperformers
Two promoted teams stand out here. Nottingham Forest with their propensity to concede long range goals and Bournemouth, who have – narrowly – the biggest defensive underperformance this season. Much of that comes down to Liverpool beating them 9-0 from an xG of only 3.3 but to Bournemouth’s credit, they have reacted very well to that most terrifying of scorelines, losing only one game since. The fact that Forest and Bournemouth are in this position shows just what a step up it is for teams arriving from the Championship to cope with the superior chance creation and finishing prowess of established Premier League sides.
The Long Rang Shooters
Perhaps unsurprisingly given they have scored only five goals all season, but Wolves are the team most reliant on long range shots (the arch-enemy of xG) this season. Almost 44% of their efforts this season have come from distance, with only one of them actually going in. Wolves do indeed have some players, such as Ruben Neves, who have considerable ability at long range shooting but ultimately the club are going to have to start making, and taking, chances from closer in if they are to pull clear of the relegation battle.
