THERE is a lot to unpack ahead of Tottenham’s short trip to the Emirates this weekend and given that most of the viewership tuning in will be ‘neutrals’ let’s start on a positive footing. Typically, there are goals in this fixture and plenty of them.

An average of 3.2 per game since 2000 to be precise and that’s a hefty tally for any game, never mind a derby. By way of comparison, the Merseyside derby has an average of 2.3.

It’s gets better too because this is a match-up that usually produces drama and not just the kind associated with local dust-ups. Before we readily dismiss that angle however, it should be acknowledged that in the Premier League era the North London Derby has thrown up 15 red cards and only three other fixtures can top that.

Back Christian Romero to be booked at the Emirates at 6/4. Gabby Jesus is good value too at 3/1. The Brazilian has seen yellow four times already in 2022/23.

Yet, of more importance to controversial incidents is what is often at stake when these sides collide, with top-four battles commonplace. Last May’s humdinger was a prime example of this and is it any wonder entry into the Champions League is routinely the prize when these sides meet once it’s accepted that this is a neighbourly dispute that has long been contested on a level playing field. Tottenham’s average league placing going back a decade is 4.5. Arsenal’s is fifth.

Of course, there is a very different, and heightened, objective on this occasion with Spurs unbeaten and looking to claim top spot, while Arsenal are hellbent on proving they haven’t merely enjoyed a cracking start to their campaign, but instead are leading the way a fifth through the season entirely on merit. The broader aspiration for both meanwhile, is to show they are now sides of genuine substance, who won’t Spurs or Arsenal it up anytime soon.

Before we dig down into that though let’s turn once more to a historical stat concerning this fixture, one that is highly pertinent to what might play out on Saturday lunchtime.

Since 2000, 35% of North London derbies have ended in a draw and anything north of a third is always worth serious consideration. Frankly, it’s a pattern that should never be ignored.

Go for a draw and both teams to score at 17/5. Neither side has fired a blank so far this term.

And if the game is all-square with twenty remaining, will either team push on and take risks, daring to Spurs or Arsenal it up? Or will Tottenham regard the continuation of their unbeaten run a form of victory in itself? Will the Gunners be content to successfully navigate one of their toughest tests and stay in contention at the summit? The suspicion is that the blood and thunder may drain out of this clash – a little, but enough – if it’s deadlocked late on, thus extending the pattern.

Incidentally, only one from those 15 stalemates this century has been goalless, and this takes us back to the beginning. Typically, there are goals in this fixture and plenty of them.

Determining who will score them leads us to some obvious candidates. No player has converted more often in a North London Derby than Harry Kane but it’s Son Heung-min who has been recently impactful, boasting six direct goal involvements in the last five meetings. It’s relevant too that the Korean is looking back to his best, putting to bed a disappointing start to 2022/23 with a 13-minute hat-trick last time out. That startling cameo may well be enough to consign Richarlison to the bench on Saturday.

Son to score anytime feels a touch generous at 13/5.

Elsewhere, a key aspect to Tottenham’s impressive rise has been the distribution of their goals because unquestionably in recent times they have been too reliant on their formidable front two. Now, Dier and Hojbjerg have chipped in with a brace apiece while even Rodrigo Bentancur has got in on the act and goals flying in from midfield explains why Spurs have scored more from outside the box this season than anyone else (5).

Arsenal meanwhile have notched the most from inside the penalty area which brings us to Gabby Jesus and his four goals and three assists in seven outings to date. What really stands out about the in-form Brazilian is that – including his time at Manchester City – eight of his last 12 strikes have come on home soil and here is a player who evidently thrives on being vociferously supported. He will be backed to the hilt this weekend.

Bukayo Saka is also worth a mention with four assists, for all the talk of a patchy season so far for the brilliant youngster and his age comes into play too, as Mikel Arteta constructs a side that is tearing into this campaign with significantly less self-doubt, and more youthful abandon, than previous incarnations.

Against Brentford a fortnight ago the Gunners’ oldest player in their back-five was Kieran Tierney, aged just 25. In their comprehensive victory over Leicester, Tottenham’s rearguard had an average age of 28.5.

Can Arteta’s kids sustain their consistency across a long and demanding season? Can Antonio Conte’s experienced collective position themselves as genuine title contenders? A game of this stature and significance should tell us a great deal but don’t be surprised if both teams keep us in suspense for a little while yet.

Arsenal have conceded six of their seven in the league during the second period. Spurs have only failed to score after the break once all season. Back the visitors to win the second-half at 13/5.