AFTER losing heavily and unexpectedly to Hungary in June, England now need a minor miracle to retain their Nations League top-flight status. Thankfully, it’s a tall order that is entirely in their own destiny.

Victory over Italy in Milan this Friday is their first assignment, though that will be anything but straightforward, even if Roberto Mancini’s men have endured a troublesome year. The Azzurri last lost to England in a competitive fixture all the way back in 1997 and have been beaten at the San Siro only once since 1925.

Don’t expect a goal-fest on the peninsula. Go for under 2.5 goals at 16/25.

Should history be successfully altered, next up is Germany at Wembley and with three points essential again to avoid the ignominy of relegation, England’s task only intensifies.

Since taking on the job post-Euros, Hansi Flick has dramatically transformed Die Mannschaft, sensibly deploying players in their best positions – an obvious plus that his predecessor stubbornly failed to adhere to – while installing a hard-pressing 4-2-3-1 system that has consistently produced impressive results. In the Flick era Germany are unbeaten in 13, averaging 3.2 goals per game.

No doubt full of devilment in the attacking third as these two ancient foes go head-to-head will be Bayern’s teenage sensation Jamal Musiala, who this week was compared to Lionel Messi by German legend Lothar Matthaus. Musiala caused England all manner of problems this summer and he will do so again. Look out too for Timo Werner who is a vastly better proposition on the international stage to the player who flailed and failed at Stamford Bridge. The 26-year-old has eight in 11 across Flick’s tenure.

Our focus here however stays with Italy and not wholly because they’re first up. Should the Three Lions stumble in Milan, their hosting of Germany will amount to a friendly and so naturally Gareth Southgate will then utilise his last opportunity to assess his squad prior to Qatar and delve into its periphery. The starting line-up therefore will be hard to predict.

Whereas on Friday evening, beneath the San Siro lights, we all-but-know that Harry Maguire will feature, despite the struggling Manchester United defender having played only ten minutes in the Premier League since his side were dismantled at Brentford. We know too that Mason Mount is a very probable starter, even though the Chelsea star has been a shadow of his usual self of late.

England have lost their welcome habit of scoring early in games, not converting in the opening 45 for four fixtures now. Back them to put that right this week and score in the first half v Italy at 6/5.

Still, that Southgate has his favourites is by the by, and it should be noted that both players typically turn up in an England jersey. Of far more interest are the starters who are bang in form at club level and that leads us – unsurprisingly – to Harry Kane who is once again in familiar territory near the top of the leading goal-scorer chart after slotting home six in seven for Spurs.

Regarding Kane’s unerring and sustained prolificacy at international level there are different ways of framing it but let’s keep it nice and simple for maximum impact. Tottenham’s talisman has fired 16 for his country in his last 13 starts. All told, since rediscovering his accuracy against Germany at last year’s Euros, he has scored every 71.8 minutes.

Elsewhere, Jude Bellingham taking another quantum leap in his development demands attention, but it is the formidable threat posed by Kane that will most concern an Italian side that shipped in five recently to Germany.

That uncharacteristic implosion however should be balanced out by a goalless stalemate kept at Molyneux just three days before and it is this veering between extremes that has become a hallmark of Mancini’s Italy this past year, an inconsistency that starkly contrasts to the suave, ultra-confident machine we marvelled at during their Euro-winning campaign and before.

Italy have failed to get on the score-sheet four times in their last eight outings. England to win to nil is worth a punt at 16/5.

To put their decline into normality in context when they conceded a late consolation goal to Austria in their Euro last 16 clash it was the first time they had been breached for 19.4 hours.

In defence Bonucci and Chiellini were a streetwise and impenetrable duo. In midfield Jorginho covered more ground than most. Up front, the Azzurri had a miscellany of attacking options. Italy were inter-connected and superb.

Since becoming continental champions though they have kept only four clean sheets in 14, losing to North Macedonia along the way as they failed to qualify for Qatar and the diagnosis of their problems points to a reluctance from Mancini to evolve his winning formula. In doing so he has been far too loyal to aging players who have previously served him well.

To give the Italian boss due credit he has sought to rectify this in recent months, giving Milan’s Sandro Tonali and Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini more game-time and consequently performances have improved.

But we come back again to their 5-2 hammering courtesy of Germany. And we see that perhaps Italy are a bit too reliant on goals from midfield to compensate for a blunt forward-line. And we begin to think that maybe, just maybe, history can be altered this Friday evening after all.

An exact winning margin of a single goal for the visitors is offered up at 13/4