ROUND one of the 150th Open didn’t quite catch fire, but round two was a different story entirely. On Thursday the morning starters enjoyed themselves and in the afternoon everyone was caught cold. But Friday saw everyone put their foot to the floor and the leaderboard looks stacked for a weekend charge.
Cameron Smith is clear of the field on 13-under, helped by a good start, but really fuelled by a sensational second round of 64. His nearest rival, two shots back, is Cameron Young, yet to win on the PGA Tour, but a five-time top three finisher this season alone.
Behind them lurk the Europeans Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland on 10-under. The former carded a 68, the latter a 66. Dustin Johnson is alone in fifth, a further shot back, with Scottie Scheffler and Tyrrell Hatton sharing sixth on 8-under. It’s a fine collection of talent and we look set for a treat.
But who will emerge triumphant?
The Stats
At first glance St Andrews and Monaco don’t share a lot in common. Or perhaps they do. Both towns feature sporting events that take place among the hustle and bustle of normal life. Monaco’s Grand Prix layout is famously tight and difficult for cars to pass, and guess what? The Old Course is much the same.
In the 15 Opens at the home of golf since 1939 every single eventual winner was within three blows of the lead after 18 holes and 14 of 15 were in that positions after 36 holes as well. But get this: Jack Nicklaus is the outlier.
The great man won in both 1970 and 1978, both times he was three shots back after the first round (the only winner not to have been within two) and he was the exception in the halfway position too: he slipped six back in 1978.
So, unless you’re arguably the greatest golfer ever, you need to have been within two after 18 holes and still within three now.
That leaves two: Cameron Young and Rory McIlroy.
I admire the game of the young American and would love to have been on from the get-go, but he’s currently too short for a fellow who the stats might like but who faces the prospect of trying to win a major, a very special major, as his first success at the highest level.
I also admire the leader Smith. He’s been superb through the first 36 holes, is a two-time winner this season, has recent experience of contending in a major – when losing out to Scottie Scheffler at the Masters – and his short game is a great fit for the Old Course.
But of that top three I think the value lies elsewhere.
Winner – Rory McIlroy at 3/1
I would be a little concerned if there was high wind forecast for the weekend, but that’s not the case. I’m also wary of being too taken in by his confident words because he has to speak to the press all the time and it makes sense for him to talk himself up. But there are times when McIlroy does that in slightly unconvincing terms and others when he seems rather more genuine.
After the opening round he said: “I’ve played this golf course well over the years. I knew, if I just played my game and stuck to my game plan, that something like this was possible. Everything feels very settled. No real issues with my game.”
After the second lap he cut a really calm figure when chatting to the press. “I felt pretty much in control of everything,” he said. “And I think the results and the consistency have backed that up. I know I’ve got the game. That’s all I need. I just need to go out and play my game and that’s all I can do.”
I’ve been pretty down on his chances of major championship glory for a long while, but – and I might be getting giddy at the 150th – but I’m getting the feeling that this is his time. I also just genuinely think there’s something wrong with his price.
Each way – Sahith Theegala at 66/1
The American is having the time of his life this week and is tied eighth on 7-under. Of everyone on that number or better he is the biggest price and yet there might be some juice on this bone.
“I feel great,” he said after the second round. “I’ve hit the ball really well and the big key for me always is my driver. I’ve always been a good iron player and I’ve never been a good driver of the ball. But I’ve driven it really well out here. A part of that is being able to start as far left as I want and hit my big fade, power fade.”
He didn’t stop there. “I’ve struck it really well and, honestly, I missed a decent amount of putts that I feel I could have made. They’re going to fall eventually.”
He also added, about the conditions: “Actually, I went to Australia in 2020 and played Victoria Golf Club. It was concrete out there, really firm, really windy, short course. You’re laying up from 60 yards all the time. So it’s pretty similar to that and I played really well there.”
