ONLY five days and a solitary goal separates England’s hosting of Croatia and Scotland yet if these fixtures were swapped around the mood of the nation would be notably different right now.
An opening stalemate with the Scots would have brought some consternation of course, with the criticism that is currently being leveled at Gareth Southgate at an audible volume. His uninspiring track record at Middlesbrough and with the Under 21s would have been mentioned in dispatches, as too his cautious approach that feels completely at odds with a vibrant, young squad packed with adventurous attacking talent. Two holders against Scotland, Gareth? Seriously?
Yet still, this negativity would have been more muted than it is at present and furthermore tempered with the acknowledgement that England traditionally tend to start poorly in major competitions, even in vintage years. In 1966, the Three Lions kicked proceedings off with a bad-tempered goalless draw with Uruguay. At Italia ’90, Bobby Robson’s army ground out an attritional point. In that glorious summer of ’96, Gazza and co were bang-average against the Swiss.
Kalvin Phillips absolutely bossed the midfield against Croatia ! pic.twitter.com/q0deeGq0LW
— Ranojoy Sengupta (@RanojoySengupta) June 13, 2021
Recalling these initial setbacks would have kept the doom and gloom relatively in check and then last Friday evening, England would have adroitly neutralized Croatia, controlling the tempo throughout and what’s more, the selection of Kalvin Phillips would have made perfect sense as he darted here and there, running the show.
With a different order of events – but with the same results and performances – England would be heading into their third and final group commitment against Czech Republic with a country behind them and tentatively optimistic and this greatly matters because should they top Group D all-but-one of their matches will be at Wembley. The fans will have a part to play if history beckons.
Regrettably however, this is only an imagined scenario. Instead, first came the professional display followed by insipid mediocrity and if England fans are aware of their team’s historical trait of suffering opening night jitters they’re also well-versed in tournaments of old. In their lifetime they’ve seen sides start slowly then grow into a competition, going on to win it. They’ve seen brilliant teams announce themselves from the off and claim a trophy that felt rightfully theirs. Never though, in the short, sharp arc of a major tournament has a team regressed on route before reviving their fortunes to any meaningful extent.
This as much as anything, explains the prevailing sense of deflated acceptance in the air at present and it’s why just the three points against the Czechs won’t suffice. What is needed is a moment.
England v Holland in the 90s; England 0-0 Holland 16/6/1990. Stalemate in Italia 90 group game, remembered for Gazza's Cruyff turn and a disallowed @GaryLineker goal #Keepit90s pic.twitter.com/kwoHC7zyLi
— The 90s Football Podcast (@AK90s) March 23, 2018
You know the kind of moment. We’ve seen them before. An instance of magic or a magical game that lights a fire and puts it in our bellies, the team too. A Gascoigne ‘Cruyff turn’ against the Dutch would do the trick or better yet, an individual performance akin to Rooney’s that single-handedly dismantled Croatia in 2004. A repeat of that wonderful 90 minutes against Holland in ’96 would be the ultimate dream.
Is there any chance of this happening on Tuesday night? Let’s just say that it’s unlikely at best and that’s not just because of Southgate’s stubborn conservatism or the worrying form of Kane and Sterling. The opponents too make this possibility a distant one.
Jaroslav Silhavy’s side came into this tournament with a reputation for being solid and they have done little to date to dissuade us of that view. In their opener in Glasgow they patiently picked off Scotland before impressively nullifying Croatia and their well-organized stoicism has meant only twice have they been beaten by more than two goals in their last 20 games. For a team ranked 40th in the world this demonstrates genuine resolve.
Furthermore, they go into this buoyed by the memory of a 2-1 win over England in Prague back in October 2019 and granted that feels like an eternity ago but at least 14 players involved then will feature here. Another consideration is that at the back of their minds, the Czechs will know that a loss might still be enough to secure second spot, just so long as the loss is slender.
This one will be tight and a grind and to progress England must show perseverance which they will. Ideally though they also really need to inspire. Which they won’t.
Croatia v Scotland
It is in the group’s other fixture where excitement may be found even if intuitively it feels like Croatia will lean on their wily experience and break Scottish hearts.
But enough with the negativity. If England are incapable in their current guise of sparking our imagination into life let’s transfer our idealism north of the border.
Croatia have never beaten Scotland in five attempts and even if that’s a commentator stat rather than data that will directly impact on Tuesday’s outcome in Glasgow it’s at least something.
Of much more pertinence, is that a reasonable argument could be made that Croatia’s decline in recent times has been simplified and under-played, with the World Cup finalists in 2018 cast as an aging side who remain dangerous even if that threat has waned.
In reality, this once brilliant collective are 14th in passing accuracy in the tournament so far and 13th in possession. Maybe their situation is worse than we thought?
Over a third of Scotland’s goals since 2019 have come from crosses so favour Dykes or Adams to capitalize, or failing that the aerial threat McTominay offers at set pieces.
Combine Dykes to score anytime with a famous Scottish 2-1 triumph for a 22/1 pay-out
Croatia v Scotland Full Betting
