AFTER five straight losses to start the 2020 season, the Atlanta Falcons have fought back well to win three of their next four. This week, they take their recovery show on the road to New Orleans' Mercedes-Benz Superdome where they will face a Saints side missing an injured Drew Brees, with backup QB Jameis Winston making first start of the season.
NFL expert Nat Coombs runs the rule over that match-up, plus Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys. Three selections – back them individually or take a punt on the 23/4 treble.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Sunday November 22, 18:00 GMT
When future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees was pictured on the sidelines at the start of the second half of the Saints’ win over San Francisco last week, still suited up but sombre expression having been taken out of the game, Twitter overloaded with suggestion he’d been benched, when in fact he’d suffered cracked ribs and a punctured lung, forcing the Saints to pull him.
Back-up Jameis Winston, talented but wildly erratic, came in and was relatively composed by his typically freewheeling standards – this is the player that threw 30 TDs and 30 INTs last season in Tampa Bay – and he’ll start this weekend against Atlanta as Brees rests.
It’s an intriguing proposition. Winston offers a deep ball threat that Brees just can’t any more as time catches up with him but comes into an offense that is predicated on slicing and dicing defenses, playing to Brees’ strengths: short and medium fast release, high tempo, ridiculously accurate.
The likelihood is that Sean Payton won’t change things up too much, which should help Winston’s tendency towards profligacy, but is bound to dial up a few big hits to test the Atlanta secondary. Alvin Kamara is a one-man offense – he’s had over 1000 all-purpose yards so far this season and 11 TDs (as many as the New York Jets have managed in total) and with Michael Thomas fit and healthy, ditto Emmanuel Sanders, Winston will have plenty of pieces around him to ease him in, as Teddy Bridgewater did last season for his cameo when Brees went down.
Taysom Hill gets dialled up for variation even when Brees is fit – expect to see more of him also, and the Falcons are giving up almost 28 points per game on average, and a lot of yardage, much of it through the air.
Atlanta’s offense is humming again, averaging over 30 points per game in their last four and are coming into this game off a bye, which means WR Calvin Ridley (657 yards, 6TDs), benefiting from the rest, should be fit to start to line up alongside Julio Jones (638, 3 TDs). They rank as the NFL’s number two passing attack in YPG and Matt Ryan (15 TDs, 5 INTs) will relish the challenge against a Saints D that can pressure and is strong against the run but is gettable in the secondary, despite Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins stepping up in recent weeks, particularly against Tampa Bay. Ryan will air it out and take shots and land a fair few.
Match odds: Saints (1/2) Falcons (7/4)
Handicap: Saints -4 (10/11) Atlanta +4 (10/11)
Total points: Over 51.5 (10/11) Under 51.5 (10/11)
Tip: Over 51 total points (17/20)
Denver Broncos vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday November 22, 18:00 GMT
The Dolphins are trending up and looking at the very real possibility of their first playoff appearance since 2016. A lot of focus has been on rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, and the southpaw has looked progressively better week on week and outduelled his fellow first year quarterback Justin Herbert as the Fins rolled over LA last time out (hope you were on the over for that one as suggested in last week’s column!)
He’s a promising player and has a good cast of characters around him offensively, but it’s the strong defense and excellent special teams that is making this Miami side a true contender. And the match up against a Denver side that’s offensively all over the place. Bryan Flores – a former Bill Belichick lieutenant – is dialling up all kinds of inventive looks and schemes with the Dolphins defense and has rattled a number of QBs this season more accomplished than struggling Drew Lock.
The Denver QB has been a disappointment – and seemingly the latest in a line of misfires from GM John Elway, one of the game’s all-time great players in that position – and he’s running out of time to save his starting role. I don’t think Miami – particularly corner tandem of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, amongst the best in the league – will give him the answers he’s looking for.
Match odds: Dolphins (29/20) Dolphins (3/5)
Handicap: Broncos +3.5 (10/11) Dolphins -3.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 45 (10/11) Under 45 (10/11)
Tip: Dolphins -3.5 (10/11)
For all NFL Week 11 betting markets, click here
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday November 22, 21:25 GMT
Andy Dalton returning for Dallas is a massive upgrade even if their season is done. He goes up against a Minnesota side that’s turned their season around and can look like a viable playoff contender with a win here – improbably after their horrendous start to the season.
Dalvin Cook is understandably getting most of the plaudits for that turnaround, and he’ll have a field day against a poor Cowboys defense, but I expect Dallas to land some hits of their own and keep it competitive.
The risk is that Dalton, still new to this offense but vastly experienced, will be out of synch since his enforced Covid-19 layoff, but this is still a young and raw Vikings secondary, and the line, for 2020 standards is relatively low.
Match odds: Vikings (3/10) Cowboys (14/5)
Handicap: Vikings -7 (17/20) Cowboys +7 (19/20)
Total points: Over 48 (10/11) Under 48 (10/11)
Tips: Over 48 total points (10/11)
Treble odds
Saints/ Falcons – Over 51 total points (17/20), Dolphins -3.5 (10/11), Vikings/ Cowboys – Over 48 total points (10/11): 23/4
Check out the Nat Coombs Show podcast on ESPN right here.
