WITH England’s win over Belgium still fresh in the memory it feels unfair to go in too hard on Gareth Southgate and his England project that appears to be unravelling. 

To put that victory into proper context, Belgium are currently ranked number one in the world and arrived at Wembley with 12 straight wins under their belt in competitive fixtures. Besting them was a statement.

Just three days later however the Three Lions lost meekly and completely bereft of any ideas to Denmark and when we zoom out and see the whole picture it reveals a range of concerning issues.

First up are the off-field disciplinary lapses that are evidently becoming commonplace. Every international break appears to bring a new scandal – though thankfully none have arisen this time to date – and despite the fact that the England manager brings a schoolmasterly approach to proceedings perhaps he only has the respect of a supply teacher among the young charges within his squad?

Speculation aside, Southgate’s proclivity to switch systems is of more substance with three at the back changing to four, then five, then back to three again. This incessant tinkering has reportedly gone down like a lead balloon with some of the players. It’s certainly had a detrimental impact on performances and too often in recent times England have lacked any creative input, crying out for a Jack Grealish type to cut through the predictability in possession only of course the Villa schemer typically resides on the periphery; untrusted and frustrated.

Romelu Lukaku’s first half vs. England by numbers:

5 penalty area touches
3 chances created
2 shots
1 goal

He had a direct hand in all of his side’s shots in the first 45 minutes. pic.twitter.com/BH7l0Cy7G7

— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) October 11, 2020

This in turn has had a profound effect on the front line. Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane scored 20 goals between them in a prolific 2019 whereas this year their combined 504 minutes has produced just the one strike and that a penalty from the Manchester City forward. Unsurprisingly, this shortfall in front of goal has extended across the team. Last year England averaged a highly impressive 3.8 goals per game. In 2020 they have scored six in six.

England are 29/10 to score under 0.5 goals and should you wish to be patriotic and back the boys this makes for a perfect insurance bet.

Staying with their relative woes we can factor in too the decidedly patchy form of Jordan Pickford and Harry Maguire – though in this current climate it’s difficult to find any team without individuals who are out of sorts. When all this is accumulated it’s reasonable to believe England will have their work cut out in Leuven this Sunday in a game they really need to win to reach the Nations League semi-finals. 

Southgate’s men are 11/5 to win, a fair price all things considered. Of much more interest however is the 27/20 for Belgium to prevail over the ninety minutes. The Red Devils last lost on home soil in September 2016 and with their quality and confidence the odds jump out as generous.

Not that Roberto Martinez’s side are without their own troubles. Eden Hazard is ruled out after testing positive for coronavirus while the injured Yannick Carrasco is a big miss given his importance to the hosts’ tactical shape. Anyone who has seen Manchester City this season meanwhile will know that for all his moments of magic Kevin De Bruyne looks absolutely shattered.

All of which suggests, when coupled with England’s creative deficiencies, that this might be a game of few chances and if this is indeed the case all eyes will fall on Romelu Lukaku to again grab the headlines. The Inter Milan striker has notched 15 goals in his last 12 appearances for his country and though it’s unclear how effectively he has recovered from a recent abductor muscle tear Lukaku will surely pose the greatest threat to the visitors.

Should Belgium break the deadlock, we can expect it will occur sooner rather than later. Martinez’s side have scored 23 of their last 35 competitive goals in the first half with a good deal of them arriving inside the opening 20 minutes. Therefore the 19/10 available on the Red Devils being ahead at the break is definitely one of the most attractive bets of this contest.

Which leaves us just with the setups of each side, with England’s being of particular interest. Will Southgate persist with the 3-4-3 that failed so miserably against Denmark or will he prioritise solidity at the back favouring five? A fear of Belgium’s fondness for seeking overloads in wide areas suggests the latter but does the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James scupper this? After all, it only leaves the England boss with about ten right-backs in his ranks.

Truthfully though, joking aside, we have no earthly clue as to what system Southgate will plump for game to game these days. And that really is part of the problem that is leading to a once promising project hopelessly unravelling.