THE Boston Celtics sit on the precipice of failure, while the Los Angeles Lakers rode their luck in Game Two before falling short a couple of nights later. Welcome to the conference finals, ladies and gentlemen, where anything is possible.
Familiarity breeds contempt, and with just four teams remaining, things are starting to get spicy. Here, we look at weekend’s action while taking a quick glance at each series' possible winners.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat, Game 5 | Saturday September 26, 01:30 GMT
Miami has dominated this series thus far, winning three of the first four games. Utilising an inverted zone defense, the Heat has nullified Boston's perimeter threats while catching fire from deep. With an average point total of 220.5, taking the over in this contest screams value. Boston are playing for their lives here, it’s win or go home.
In terms of individuals, there's value to be found on both sides. Jayson Tatum has recorded eight double-doubles (where a player reaches double digits in two statistical categories – usually points, assists, or rebounds, but this can extend to steals and blocks too) in the last 15 games while averaging 25 and 10 throughout the playoffs. Betting on the 22-year-old All-Star wing to hit this statistical milestone again is good value.
Tatum is leading the Celtics in the following categories during the playoffs
Mins: 40.2
Points: 25.5
Rebounds: 10.2
Blocks: 1.3
Turnovers : 2.9He's only 22 years old
— Adam Taylor (@AdamTaylorNBA) September 24, 2020
For Miami, Tyler Herro has been exceptional, putting Boston to the sword in Game Four with stellar shooting, finishing with 37 points. While Herro's performance was an outlier, he's been reliable, averaging 20.5 points per game. Depending on the over/under for Herro to go for 25+ again in Game Five, this may turn out to be a prudent decision.
Then there's Miami's offensive hub: Bam Adebayo, a nightly double-double threat with points and rebounds. Similar to Tatum, taking Adebayo to hit the milestone in Game Five could turn out rewarding.
Match odds (including overtime): Celtics (8/13) Heat (13/10)
Handicap: Celtics -3.5 (9/10) Heat +3.5 (10/11)
Total points: Over 213 (9/10) Under 213 (10/11)
Tip: Celtics to win (8/13), Over 213 total points (9/10), Celtics to win and over 213 total points (11/5)
Series: Miami needs one more win to wrap up the conference finals, and given they have only lost twice in the playoffs, people are putting the nail in Boston's coffin already. While the Celtics have the better team on paper, full of scoring and defensive potential, Miami set the tone throughout the contest.
With Boston required to go unbeaten in the next three straight games, something that seldom happens in the NBA playoffs (unless your name is Denver, apparently), taking the Heat to win is a wise choice here. If you're forced to choose what game they will wrap it up, then Game Six is a logical option because Boston won't go quietly.
Series odds: Celtics (4/1) Heat (1/6)
Tip: Heat to win 4-2 (14/5)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 5 | Sunday, Septemeber 27, 02:00
The Lakers defeated the Nuggets on Friday morning to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. However, Denver has been in this position twice before during these playoffs, surging back to win both series.
While it would be foolish to count the Nuggets out at this juncture, the Lakers are not the Clippers or Jazz. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are a fearsome duo, capable of dominating every game. With the championship round within reach, the smart money is on LeBron willing his team over the conference finals finish line within the next two games – he's chasing his legacy after all.
Both teams have defensive deficiencies, making over 215 points an exciting proposition. In this series, these two teams have only failed to surpass the 215 point total once, and in what's now a win-or-go-home scenario, it's unlikely to happen again.
LeBron is leading the league in assists per game in terms of individual players, regularly finishing with double digits in this category. While taking both James and Davis to finish the game with a double-double could see you beat the odds for an excellent return.
For Denver, Jamal Murray has been the breakout star of the playoffs, increasing his profile around the league with his fearlessness and overwhelming confidence. If there's a good bet to be had, it's that he scores north of 25 points in this game, as the Nuggets look to repeat recent history and storm back in Game Five.
We would be remiss not to mention the electric Nikola Jokic, a big man capable of quarterbacking the offense from as deep as the half-court. With passing vision and ridiculous shooting range, Jokic could be the deciding factor in this contest, having gone for 11 straight points down the stretch to end game two. If there's anything Jokic knows how to do, it's how to score when the pressure is on, making 15+ second-half points a good medium-to-long-shot punt.
Match odds (including overtime): Lakers (2/5) Nuggets (41/20)
Handicap: Lakers -6 (10/11) Nuggets (10/11)
Total points: Over 214.5 (10/11) Under 214.5 (10/11)
Tip: Lakers to win (2/5), Over 214.5 total points (10/11), Lakers to win and Over 214.5 total points (17/10)
Series: If you're looking to guess the eventual winner of this series, look no further than the Lakers. The team consists of a dominant duo, championship know-how, and a modernised throw-back style; they're the team to beat at this point.
Denver has proven they know how to win with their backs against the wall. Yet, this is LeBron James, a player who has willed his teams to victory on countless occasions, and with only one more triumph required, a Denver comeback seems insurmountable.
Series odds: Lakers (1/100) Nuggets (16/1)
Next week, we should be entering the championship rounds, where the two best teams of the Disney World bubble will compete for the honour of being crown champions. There will be some good outsider opportunities along with some delightfully enticing scoring bets.
