SANDWICHED between the season’s end and a fortnight of international football this year’s Community Shield has an odd feel to it.
There are rumours that fringe players will heavily feature due to Liverpool and Arsenal having both been denied a full pre-season break. Then there’s the unnerving prospect of 2020/21’s curtain raiser being greeted with a smattering of applause amidst otherwise empty stands.
Yet for all the unknowns and anomalies it is still possible to place this Saturday’s Wembley showdown into some context and even form educated guesses about its outcome. To do this, the clues begin in the past.
History favours the Gunners
Arsenal have won seven of their last nine Community Shields, concluding matters inside 90 minutes on all-but-one of those occasions. Indeed, only Manchester United have lifted the octagonal piece of silverware more. If this suggests the North London giants have a special relationship with the fixture the same can be said of its venue. Excluding league games Arsenal have lost just once in their last 12 visits to Wembley while conversely their opponents this weekend have not been successful there since 2012.
Even the contest itself historically alludes to Mikel Arteta’s Lego hair being ruffled in triumph. In four of the last five occasions when the previous term’s league champions have come up against the FA Cup winners it is the latter who has won out.
To what extent past events impact on the present is up for debate but the more recent example of July’s 2-1 league win over Jurgen Klopp’s men is a further reason to believe that Arsenal’s odds are on the generous side.
Match odds: Arsenal (19/5) Draw (13/4) Liverpool (13/20)
Tip: Arsenal to win in 90 minutes (19/5)
This means more
Some managers use the Community Shield as an opportunity to get some competitive minutes into their players' legs while others view it as a legitimate trophy up for grabs. What intrigues here is that each approach applies.
During Liverpool’s defeat to Manchester City last August, Jurgen Klopp made wholesale changes throughout the second half and elsewhere has demonstrated a willingness to prioritise some competitions over others. On the bench meanwhile that same afternoon Arteta was part of a City coaching staff that has since publicly aired bafflement towards the English habit of downplaying the Community Shield’s importance.
As with historical stats it is debatable how much this will have a real effect on the players. Yet to some degree it will.
Correct score: Arsenal to win 2-1 (13/1)
Both teams to score
Why 2-1? Simply put, if the Gunners are going to prevail this weekend it’s very likely they’re going to have to score more than once to do so.
The last ten meetings between these sides have produced an avalanche of goals with an average of 5.2 per game far exceeding the norm. Encouragingly this has included some absolute classics with a 5-5 League Cup draw in October 2019 particularly standing out.
Since the successful implementation of Project Restart, Arsenal have failed to net just once in their last 12 fixtures while Liverpool racked up 15 goals in their last six games.
Both teams to score: 3/5
Both teams to score in both halves: 10/1
Community Shield week. pic.twitter.com/dnSw7igGL5
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A likely unlikely goal-scorer
It’s hardly surprising that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is a slim 17/10 to score anytime. The in-form striker has converted eight times in his last nine games while Wembley has recently proven to be a prosperous stomping ground. The 31-year-old notched twice apiece in his last two appearances there.
Switching to Liverpool however it is perhaps wise to look beyond their more prolific outlets to a forward who failed to reach double figures last season. Roberto Firmino will be relishing the chance of testing a sometimes suspect Arsenal back-line having scored more against the Gunners than any other club.
Roberto Firmino to score any time: 15/8
Favourites for a reason
If the Brazilian typically enjoys playing Arsenal the same can definitely be said of his team too. For all of the value found in an Arsenal win the Reds signed off an incredible campaign with two barn-storming performances while their track record against the Gunners is pretty formidable.
Not only have they lost only once in their last 11 encounters but they have scored three or more in eight of those matches. They are favourites for a reason, or more accurately several.
Liverpool to score in both halves: 13/10
