Debrief
As is very often the case when you’ve bagged a big winner like the one we had in Buenos Aires, it was a disappointing week in Rio, Delray Beach and Marseille, where usually there’s at least one or two big-priced winners or finalists.
Yoshihito Nishioka was on my shortlist for Delray Beach, but I felt that 16-1 was too short given that he had injury problems the previous week, while in Rio I expected the biggest-priced finalist to come from the bottom half of the draw.
Instead, Dominic Thiem’s defeat allowed 150-1 chance Gianluca Mager to make the final from the top half of the draw, edging out the man we backed at 100-1 in Cordoba, Attila Balazs, in a final set tie break.
It would have been painful if Balazs made an ATP 500 final as a lucky loser a fortnight after we backed him at the same price in an ATP 250, so at least we were spared that scenario.
Conditions and trends
In Dubai the conditions are always a bit of a mix, depending on the time of day the matches are played at.
The surface is a lively Decoturf II outdoor hard court, with Wilson US Open balls, which fly around in the thin desert air and are tough to control, leading to far fewer service holds and tie breaks than you’d expect on this surface.
At night it gets colder and slower and an incredibly low tie break played mark of just 28% shows the difficulty in holding serve here – especially at night.
It’s not usually the best place to go hunting for a big-priced outright winner either, with one of the top-four seeds winning Dubai each year since 2008 and no unseeded player has taken the title since 2002.
Qualifiers also fare rather poorly in Dubai, with a qualifier yet to make the final here since the tournament began in 1993.
The Chile Open is a new event on the tour, replacing Sao Paulo this year, and, like Sao Paulo it has some altitude to it (around 570m) and will be played at the Club Deportivo Universidad Catolica in Santiago.
It’s forecast to be hot all week and with no rain in Santiago, so it will probably play on the quick side there this week.
The Abierto Mexicano Telcel in Acapulco is played on a slow, high bouncing Solflex outdoor hard court, with Wilson balls, and they usually play the matches late in the afternoon/evening here to avoid the worst of the heat.
Only 31% of its matches have featured a tie break in the last six years, so it’s not the quickest, as 77% service holds over the last three years shows, too.
Nick Kyrgios won it as a 50-1 shot last year and Sam Querrey as a 90-1 chance in 2017, so upsets are quite possible in this tournament.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
The question here is whether or not to take on hot favourite Novak Djokovic, who’s only ever been beaten in Dubai in a completed match by former world number ones (Federer, Murray and Roddick).
He’s 36-6 win/loss in his career, but he hasn’t actually won it since 2013 and the new resident of Dubai (Djokovic was given a 10-year Gold Card visa recently) is the obvious favourite and even more so after Roger Federer pulled out.
A peak form Karen Khachanov could present a test, but the often-windy conditions here are unlikely to be ideal for the Russian, while Gael Monfils has the form, but surely not the belief (lost all 16 against Djokovic at main level).
So, if we’re having a bet in Dubai the best option looks to be to chance a big one each-way and hope that Dubai produces another surprise finalist like 100-1 Marcos Baghdatis in 2016 or 66-1 Fernando Verdasco a year later.
And the one for me is to risk Nikoloz Basilashvili at a big price, with the hit and miss Georgian only losing out narrowly in a final set tie break in the last eight last year and he could spring a surprise.
Basil said at the start of the season that he’s fit and healthy and that he had a good pre-season after elbow surgery in November and it may be just time that he’s needed to find his form again.
He beat Roberto Bautista Agut here a year ago and he may well face RBA again in round two if they both get that far.
The high seed in this half is Marseille winner Stefanos Tsitsipas, who made the final in Dubai 12 months ago (lost to Federer), but the Greek has a very tough draw, with Pablo Carreno Busta (another big-priced possibility) first up and then the winner of Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Bublik.
Dan Evans plays well in windy conditions and is another possible big-priced option in the adjacent quarter of the draw, with the Brit facing Fabio Fognini first up.
Fogna has never played Dubai before and he pulled out of Marseille with a left calf injury after saying a couple of weeks ago that he was tired of travelling now, having become a father to two children recently.
Evans may get a jet-lagged Yoshihito Nishioka or Pierre-Hugues Herbert next and that’s winnable, but Andrey Rublev, who won Doha in similar conditions to this, may be a problem for the Brit.
This market is win only and as I mentioned earlier it’s been won by one of the top four seeds each year for over a decade, so I’ll just take a small punt on the 66-1 about Basilashvili here.
Abierto Mexicano Telcel, Acapulco
Similarly to Djokovic in Dubai the top seed in Acapulco, Rafael Nadal, is a short-priced market leader here and again we’ve got our work cut out trying to figure out how to oppose the hot favourite.
Rafa hasn’t won this tournament since it was played on clay and in his two hard court visits to Acapulco he’s been beaten by two big servers playing lights out tennis: Sam Querrey and Nick Kyrgios.
Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev are the obvious choices to possibly beat Nadal here, but too short for me, and instead I’ll chance a return to form for John Isner, who often starts his seasons slowly but usually improves around now.
It was the same last year when a weak start to the season was complete when he was awful in defeat to Dan Evans at Delray Beach, but then he came to Acapulco and came within a point of the final (losing to Kyrgios in a final set tie break in the semis).
With conditions here being similar to Indian Wells (slow and high bouncing) Isner should be comfortable, although the heat isn’t ideal, but then again he’s a former Miami champion.
He’s drawn in a section where he’ll probably have to beat both Zverev brothers, but unless Stan Wawrinka rolls back the years in the top half of the draw or Kyrgios is fit for duty I’m struggling to see anyone likely to have the game to beat Nadal this week.
Isner has done it before (only in Laver Cup) and he’s been close numerous times, so I’m tempted to take a chance on a return to form for the big man – when Sam Querrey won here he arrived on a run of 5-9 win/loss, so I’m not worried about form.
The price of around 18-1 isn’t big enough though, compared to the Querrey and Kyrgios prices and I’ll pass in Acapulco, with perhaps the most viable favourites to take on will be in Santiago.
Chile Open, Santiago
Top seed Cristian Garin won’t want to miss this tournament in his home town, but what will he have left in the tank after another long week in Rio that hasn’t finished yet?
And there’ll be a lot of pressure on him to perform, too, and it remains to be seen whether or not Garin will be able to handle the expectations of the passionate home fans.
We’ve seen how Argentine players have struggled in Buenos Aires and this could easily be the same for Garin and maybe worse, as he’s realistically the only show in town for the home fans to get excited about.
There are three or four (perhaps more) decent options to oppose Garin with in the top half of the draw and the best value of these for me are Andrej Martin, Federico Coria and Hugo Dellien.
Martin has already lost to Garin twice this clay swing, but Martin should have beaten Garin in Rio, but his nerve failed him.
He may get another chance in Santiago – he will if he beats the guy I took a punt on last week, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – and having already made the semis at a similar altitude in Cordoba (lost to Garin) conditions should suit Martin.
Martin played well in Quito the last time that very high altitude event took place (made semis) and he’s a big priced alternative to Garin, as are Coria and Dellien.
Perhaps Coria isn’t quite up to it just yet, but he played well in Rio and wasn’t far away from Garin at all in their encounter, however I prefer taking a chance on an out of form dirt baller in Dellien.
The Bolivian knows this neck of the woods well, having won the Challenger here last year, and if he beats the struggling Marco Cecchinato in round one his draw might start to look nice, with Pablo Cuevas again poor in Rio last week.
Dellien has been way off form himself of course, but it can come back any time and a return here might be just what he needs.
The bottom half look wide-open as well, with Casper Ruud my pick in Buenos Aires largely due to the slow conditions there, but will he fare as well at this (presumably) quicker venue?
The weather looks set to be warm all week, with no rain in the forecast, so I’d expect it to play on the quick side in Santiago and Ruud will do really well to win here and in Buenos Aires and I’d be happy to take him on, but with whom?
Pretty much all of them in this bottom half of the draw are capable on their day, with Albert Ramos perhaps the most likely given how well he usually goes playing at a bit of altitude.
Gianluca Mager is still involved in Rio at the time of writing and won’t get the benefit of a very late start like Garin presumably will, so it looks a tall order for him, but Jaume Munar should appreciate the quicker conditions.
Munar needs quicker conditions than Buenos Aires and Rio for me and his best finish yet at this level has been at altitude in Kitzbuhel (semi final), so he’s a possibility, but the layers often have him too short in price and 16s is too short in my view.
No one player stands out as good value in the bottom half, so I’ll just take two in the top half in Santiago.
Conclusion
So, with Nadal and Djokovic taking centre stage in Acapulco and Dubai respectively I’m going with Santiago to be the place where a big-priced winner is most likely.
There are many options in the Chile Open, but 40-1 about Dellien and Martin each-way look the ones for me, while I’ll take a small punt on Basilashvili in Dubai and nothing in Acapulco.
Best Bets
0.5 points each-way Dellien in Santiago at 41.0
0.5 points each-way Martin in Santiago at 41.0
0.5 points win Basilashvili in Dubai at 67.0
