These pre-and-post slam weeks can either go pretty well or very badly and it’s certainly been the latter in week five of the ATP Tour.
After a very pleasing Australian Open where most things went right we’re now in the opposite situation and last night Pablo Andujar failed from 4-2 up the final set by failing to win any more games.
The rain didn’t help Andujar’s game and nor did it with that of Jaume Munar, who needed it not to rain really to have a shot against Diego Schwartzman, although he wasn’t far away from making set two very difficult for Schwartzman.
Our hope of salvation this week lies with the outrights, of which we have two going for us (both favourites) on Friday.
Ilya Ivashka goes for us in the Tata Open quarter finals on Friday and while it’s been pleasing to see our 25-1 shot continuing the form he showed in Melbourne I’m not totally sure he should be favourite today.
Ivashka’s record against left-handers such as Jiri Vesely isn’t good, with a 2-8 win/loss mark in his career against top-100 ranked lefties and 0-4 on the main ATP Tour (all versus top-70 ranked opponents).
He’s lost 10 of his last 15 at all levels (but won five of his last eight) against left-handers, one of which was against Vesely at the Eckental Challenger on carpet just over three months ago.
Ivashka actually led that match 4-1 and proceeded to win only four more games in the match (priced up as a 2.20 underdog) as Ivashka won just four second serve points all match long (18%).
All of this is a concern to me as an Ivashka backer and I’m expecting a really tough challenge from Vesely on Friday.
The other three matches in Pune looks tight as well and now that, as expected really, top seed Benoit Paire didn’t fancy it, it’s anyone’s tournament to win.
The layers can’t really split Soon Woo Kwon and Egor Gerasimov and Ricardas Berankis and Yuichi Sugita and they both look absolute pick ‘ems, but there may be some value in a set one tie break in the clash between James Duckworth and Roberto Marcora.
Duckworth came up with tremendous racquet obliteration after losing set one on a tie break to Taro Daniel on Thursday and the Aussie is always a candidate for breakers, having broken serve only 13.8% of the time in his last 50 matches at main level.
Indeed, only one of his last eight opening sets has completed in fewer than 10 games and four of them have gone to at least 12 (and four of his last eight in Pune).
And Marcora has held serve 97.4% of the time in his four matches in Pune this week on courts that are getting faster as the week goes on.
It’s a first career clash between this pair and I’d expect a nervy one here in what’s a first ATP Tour quarter final for Marcora and a first for Duckworth since 2015.
On what looks a very tricky day for betting I don’t mind taking a small chance on the 3.60 about over 12.5 games in set one in this match.
Moving on to Cordoba now and Cristian Garin looked in good form in his opening match, beating my 100-1 punt Attila Balazs comfortably, and Garin has had few problems with the match-up against Pablo Cuevas so far.
Garin’s won all three against Cuevas (one on clay) and he’s held serve 90.6% of the time against the Uruguayan, who’s only held onto his own serve 68.8% of the time.
All three matches were probably played in unsuitably quick conditions for Cuevas though, in Shanghai on quick outdoor hard, Paris on indoor hard and the HarTru clay of Houston.
Again, at a bit of altitude, it might be too quick once more, but the rain in Cordoba may play into Cuevas’ hands, though he’ll need a lot better than he showed against Gianluca Mager in a match that Cuevas was fortunate to not lose in straight sets.
Our other outright quarter finalist this week, Corentin Moutet, has so far done what I hoped he might by getting past Thiago Monteiro and knocking out second seed Guido Pella and it’ll be very disappointing if he now loses to Andrej Martin.
Moutet beat Martin en route to the Doha final on outdoor hard last month and before that on clay in a peculiar match at the Samarkand Challenger last May.
They also met at high altitude in Quito back in 2018, but I’m not sure how relevant the head-to-head really is, with Moutet playing much better tennis – and keeping better control of his emotions – lately.
At the Open Sud de France the tempting bet for me on Friday would have been take the likely superior fitness of Vasek Pospisil in his clash with Richard Gasquet, but it’s a risky one and the price is awful now.
Pospisil should have a clear fitness advantage after last playing on Wednesday night in a match that lasted just 56 minutes, while Gasquet went two hours on Thursday, having not played before this week since last October.
For what it’s worth (and that may not be much) Gasquet says: “I lack a lot physically, but I am already happy to have already won two matches; it is rather miraculous.”
The big game of Pospisil in slick conditions in Montpellier can take the time away that Gasquet enjoys and he has won two of his four against the Gasman, holding serve more often over the course of their four match series (86.8% compared to 84.9%).
But, having opened around evens, Gasquet is now 2.60, due to his likely lack of fitness and no value at all now on Pospisil.
I said in yesterday’s preview that Pierre-Hugues Herbert had the sort of game that could well cause big problems for Felix Auger-Aliassime and so it proved, but I wasn’t happy with the price on Herbert, so that one got away.
Now he faces his pal David Goffin, who’s beaten Herbert four times and the opening set has never gone past nine games (6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 to Goffin) and only one of their 12 sets has gone to a breaker on indoor hard, grass and outdoor hard.
Goffin should have won their Melbourne five setter much quicker than he eventually did and he’s the sort of player that likes a target at net and has the ability to pass comfortably, so I’m not seeing this as a great match-up for Herbert.
It looks another very tricky day and I’ll just tentatively take one bet on only on Friday.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Duckworth/Marcora at 3.60
