It’s fair to say my luck isn’t getting any better in the outrights, with two deflating losses on day one of week 42 in Moscow and Stockholm.
Cristian Garin had two consecutive match points (three in all) to beat Andreas Seppi in straight sets (1.07 in-play) before losing 11 of the next 13 points in Moscow and the Chilean then blew a 4-2 lead in the deciding set to lose in a final set breaker.
I said yesterday that Seppi has ridden his luck in tie breaks in Moscow over the years and he’s now won 10 of his 13 played at this tournament.
Worse was to come when our man in the top half of the Stockholm draw, Reilly Opelka, was beaten by the seemingly-immune-to-big-servers Stefano Travaglia on a day when both Fernando Verdasco and Marton Fucsovics pulled out of that half of the draw.
With Moscow usually providing the best return as far as underdog winners are concerned it’s probably prudent to focus our search at the Kremlin Cup on Tuesday, as 23 matches is far too many to write about in around 800 words.
And the two that look like they hold the best chances for my money in Moscow are Nicolas Jarry and Alexander Bublik.
Jarry hasn’t played much lately after performing very well on the (quick) clay in Geneva and (slow clay) in Bastad in the summer, but after a couple of matches back on the Asian swing he might be ready to cause an upset against Jeremy Chardy.
Jarry was a comfortable winner over Chardy on the clay in that Bastad title run and it’s his lack of match action since then that’s made him as big as 2.85 for this rematch.
The slow conditions in Moscow will suit Jarry (assuming they haven’t randomly sped it up this year) and we’ve seen plenty of clay courters go well at this event over the years.
Chardy, too, didn’t play after the US Open for a month due to a foot problem and had a few gimmes in qualies on the Asian swing, so he’s not at his best in terms of match sharpness either.
When the pair met on slow outdoor hard in Miami it was Chardy that won in a final set tie break, so this has been anything but an easy match-up for Chardy so far, trying to protect his backhand from the power of Jarry’s forehand and serve.
We’ll see how fit and sharp Jarry is here, but I’m happy to chance him at 2.85 in this match-up with Chardy, who's lost four of his last eight main level matches when priced up between 1.40 and 1.59.
We’re already on Alexander Bublik at a generous 80-1 outright (since cut to 33s) so we don’t need to back him on Tuesday against Andrey Rublev who’s never won a match in qualies or the main draw in Moscow yet.
If Bublik’s serve is firing like it was in Asia then he has every chance of repeating the upset win he took over Rublev here in 2016, with the 0-6 win/loss in his home event surely not too far away from Rublev’s thoughts.
Of the other underdogs in Moscow on Tuesday, Pierre-Hugues Herbert has a poor record against Philipp Kohlschreiber (1-5 win/loss) and has only managed to hold serve 74.8% of the time against the German.
That’s poor for an attacking player like Herbert and he’s fared little better on the Kohlschreiber serve either, creating only 0.25 break chances per game and allowing Kohli to hold 91.1% of the time.
In addition, Herbert is just back after a quadriceps muscle tear almost a month ago in Metz, so against even a struggling Kohli that’s won only one of eight matches since the French Open it’s an ask for Herbert.
Kohlschreiber has had injury problems as well, saying a couple of weeks ago during one of his Challenger events: “I had a lot of physical problems this year, especially with my back. I have rarely played at 100 percent. Now I am happy to be finally back at a competitive level.”
Aljaz Bedene has won all four of his career meetings with Ivo Karlovic, who plays for the first time since retiring sick at the US Open, but two of Bedene’s wins were by way of retirement.
That said, Bedene has held serve 100% of the time in nine completed sets on all four surfaces against Karlovic, whop’s held his own deal 91% of the time against Bedene and their Wimbledon meeting featured four breakers and an 8-6 fifth set.
Bedene has been playing well lately, making the Metz final indoors and a quarter final in the Orleans Challenger, where he lost to eventual champion Mikael Ymer, so it’s hard to really fancy Karlovic today.
Evgeny Donskoy is a possibility against Mikhail Kukushkin, having beaten Kuku here in Moscow 12 months ago as a 2-1 underdog.
Kuku retired sick last week in Shanghai against David Goffin, but both he and fellow Shanghai retiree Alexander Bublik are playing doubles (together) as well as singles this week, so it doesn’t sounds like was/is at death’s door with whatever it was that was ailing him in China.
Donskoy’s plan last year was simply to hit as often as possible to the Kukushkin backhand and he was able to win with that strategy and it’s certainly possible that he might again.
He’ll obviously be highly motivated at his hometown event, but his main draw record here isn’t great: 7-10 win/loss and a 95.1 hold/break total (Kukushkin: 13-9 and 102).
Kuku has won seven of their 10 career clashes and in the eight that stats are available for it’s 6-2 to Kuku, who’s held serve 87.8% of the time against just 66.7% of the time that Donskoy has held.
Roberto Carballes Baena has only played two main level matches on indoor hard in his career (1-1) and was beaten two and two by Ricardas Berankis at the Brest Challenger indoors last year.
Now that qualifying has finally finished and the qualifiers are added to the outright markets this week I can have a first look at Antwerp and see if there’s any more value in Moscow and Stockholm.
That will be added to this page in the morning, along with anything else that crops up in this very busy three tournament week, but for now I’ll take a punt on Jarry at a good price in Moscow.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Jarry to beat Chardy at 2.85
