I said it looked like a tricky betting day on Tuesday, with injuries and fatigue likely to play a part, hence just one small wager on the day, and that didn’t exactly go to plan.
Kyle Edmund was awful against what should have been a jaded Daniil Medvedev, but we’ll never know if he was or not because the only people that were made to work by Edmund were those trying to get out of the way of his wild errors.
He improved form a while in set two, but the errors were never far away and after stepping up to serve for set two at *5-3 he failed to win another game and ended up with 32 unforced errors in 20 games.
We did at least get Reilly Opelka through to the next round and our two big-priced outrights (Opelka and Alex De Minaur) will face off for a spot in round three today.
It’s set to be warm and humid in Cincy on Wednesday, but with little wind or much chance of rain, so the 60-70% humidity will probably be the major issue for the players today.
It’s one of those day by the looks of it, where quite a few underdogs appeal, but only three of 16 underdogs have won in this round of this tournament in the last two years and 28% on average in the last six years.
The underdogs that look the best placed to cause problems for the favourites on day three for my money are: Jan-Lennard Struff, Karen Khachanov, Benoit Paire, Yoshihito Nishioka, Reilly Opelka, Miomir Kecmanovic and Guido Pella.
Of these, I’m favouring Struff and Pella, with Pella perhaps the value pick today.
David Goffin vs Guido Pella
We backed Pella +3.5 games to beat Goffin in Montreal last week and he ended up winning it in two, yet he’s still roughly the same price now as he was then – a little shorter, but still a decent underdog.
That day in Montreal saw Goffin on one of his best serving days: 64% first serve percentage, 12 aces and 80% of first serve points won, but we know that’s not the norm for Goffin, whose serve is very unreliable.
Against Taylor Fritz yesterday Goffin nicked it in a final set despite scoring fewer points in the match than Fritz and producing nine double faults and winning only 64% of his first serve points.
Fritz took only three of 11 break chances and again in that match we saw long spells of poor play form Goffin, who lost five games in a row from a set and a break up and had to save double break point to avoid going a break down in the decider.
It’s not easy to hit winners here in Cincy if your name isn’t Roger Federer and we saw again yesterday the negative winners to unforced errors ratio of most of the players: Goffin hit 29 winners and 49 unforced errors.
Pella gives you nothing with his solid, reliable, consistent game and on this bouncy surface it’s going to need Goffin to be at his best off the ground and have a good serving day if he’s going to justify odds of 1.48 here.
I’m happy to go in again with Pella on the handicap here at odds-against for a +2.5 game start.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been struggling a bit the last few weeks and he didn’t look fully fit in either of his last two matches (right thigh heavily taped), but in any case in his two clashes with Jan-Lennard Struff this year (on clay and indoor hard) it’s Struff that’s posted the better stats.
Struff has held serve 88% of the time (Tsitsipas 84%) and the German has won more first and second serve points in those two matches (78% on first serve and 56% on second, compared to 75% and 49% for Tsitsipas).
They’ve both created the same amount of break chances and as I mentioned last week when we backed Struff to beat Tsonga as underdog the German has very good numbers against the better players.
Looking at both men versus the current top-25 this past 12 months at main level we find they’ve played the same amount of matches (25) and Tsitsipas has won a few more (14-11 versus 11-14) but the numbers are very similar.
Second serve points won is identical (50%) and Struff has won slightly more on first serve (76% to 74%) while Tsitsipas has held just 1% more often, so there are reasons to feel Stuff is a lively underdog here.
Also, Struff has that one match in Cincy under his belt, where Tsitsipas has only ever played one match here and lost it to Goffin.
This has the feel of a tough opener for Tsitsipas and over 2.5 sets or Struff +2.5 games look the ones here.
Talking of players who have never won a match in Cincy we have the somewhat off form (putting it kindly) Alexander Zverev in action today and he’s 0-4 in the main draw here.
Clearly Miomir Kecmanovic has a shot of upsetting Zverev on his current dismal form, but the layers are only giving us 2.45 after spotting Zverev’s struggles and poor level lately and that price is too short for me.
The all-Japanese battle between Kei Nishikori and Yoshihito Nishioka could be close on current form, with Nishioka playing well generally on outdoor hard at main level for a while now.
What worries me is the mental side of this one, with Nishioka facing an opponent he admires and Nishikori has only lost to two lefties on any hard courts since 2015 (Nadal and Shapovalov).
I’m not sure if Nishikori is fully fit at the moment after elbow issues and if he isn’t this might be tough.
Daniil Medvedev was really there for the taking by Kyle Edmund on Tuesday, but Edmund was awful, so perhaps Benoit Paire will do better.
On a good day Paire could cause the upset, but he’s a questionable one in very hot and humid conditions as well as his erratic nature, so I’ll pass on that one.
Nick Kyrgios and Karen Khachanov haven’t clashed since French Open Juniors and this could be an interesting affair, with Khachanov in with a chance, but Kyrgios holds serve 91% of the time in Cincy and 89% of the time in his last 10 matches on outdoor hard.
That may bring tie breaks into play and Khachanov is weak in that department, losing 23 of his 32 breaker in the last 12 months (Kyrgios has won 18 of his 27).
Conditions are perfect for the big server Reilly Opelka today and he’ll need them to be as Alex De Minaur has had the edge on the big American so far in their careers.
We’ve got both of these on the outrights, so hopefully it’s a quick win for one or the other, but Opelka won’t get many better chances to beat the Aussie than here in Cincy.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Struff/Tsitsipas at 2.28
0.5 points win Pella +2.5 games to beat Goffin at 2.05
