I said in Monday’s preview that cases could be made for most of the underdogs in Hamburg and four of the five won: unfortunately one of the ones that lost was an outright of ours.
Leo Mayer did at least secure the one bet of the day, which was over games in his clash with Rudolf Molleker, but losing Mayer was a blow on a day that saw other big-priced outrights Andrey Rublev and Alexei Popyrin advance.
I’m going to focus on the hard courts where possible these next two weeks (and for the rest of the season after that), but briefly on Hamburg for Tuesday there are several underdogs that could go well.
Thiago Monteiro crushed Jan-Lennard Struff in Munich a few months back on the clay and Struff is 2-10 win/loss in all matches in Hamburg, so clearly there’s scope for a possible upset there.
Dominic Thiem will have to play well to beat Pablo Cuevas and I have to question how much Thiem has left in the tank after his efforts during the clay swing – often it’s not a lot.
Cuevas was awful last week in Bastad though, so I probably wouldn’t risk Cuevas this time.
Nicolas Jarry and Alexander Zverev have gone to a final set breaker both times they’ve met on clay (both this season), so assuming that Bastad hasn’t tired Jarry out the Chilean should go well again (conditions are pretty similar between here and Bastad).
Fabio Fognini didn’t appear at all fit last week in Umag with a leg problem and there has to be a big question mark over his fitness, while Pablo Carreno Busta and Richard Gasquet both look way down on their best levels of fitness as well.
But I prefer to focus on the hard courts and I like the look of one in particular:
Radu Albot vs Tennys Sandgren
In these quick, bouncy conditions I’m happy to take Albot on as favourite against an opponent whose greater natural power should give him a decent advantage here in Atlanta.
Albot has rarely gone well at this particular stage of the season, with a 2-7 win/loss record in main level matches on outdoor hard in North America between Wimbledon and the end of the US Open.
One of the two wins he did get came in a final set tie break at the 2017 US Open against Yen Hsun Lu, having been bagelled in set four, and he has much to prove against players with power on a fast, bouncy surface.
He did grind out the title in much slower, windier conditions in Delray Beach, but that’s quite different to this stage of the season and I’m struggling to find many outdoor hard courts wins on his record in quickish conditions.
There’s the one against Lu (where he scored the same number of points), a four set win the round prior to that against Ernesto Escobedo and another four setter against Michael Mmoh in Melbourne this year, but that’s it.
I did think he may have a chance of doing something on grass this swing, with his movement a big advantage on the green stuff, but it didn’t happen (1-3 win/loss) and he was all too easily overpowered by Struff at Wimbledon.
I think he needs it slower than this to use his movement to track down a lot of balls, as he did in Delray Beach, and assuming Sandgren is on form – which is never a given – the American could be fair value here.
Albot was able to beat Sandgren on clay at the French Open (1.53 favourite) but Sandgren had come through qualies and faded in the fourth set there and in any case Sandgren on clay isn’t up to a great deal.
Yoshihito Nishioka made the semi finals here three years ago, but by and large the successful players in Atlanta are the ones with power and we’ll see if Albot – who’s lost four of his last six main level matches when priced up between 1.80 and 1.99 – is up to it in these conditions.
Having written all of this, Sandgren then had a MTO for a leg problem during his doubles match on Monday, so I’ll just have to hope that he’s OK to play singles.
The two men who contested the 2017 World Tour Finals semi final are both in action in round one of Atlanta (presumably on Tuesday, although I’m yet to see a schedule) and that’s Jack Sock and Grigor Dimitrov.
Things haven’t gone well for either man since then, particularly Sock, who’s number 180 in the world these days and coming back from a thumb injury.
It’s hard to see Sock, who was in awful form for some time before the injury, firing back to form this week, but perhaps an enforced break will have just given him a bit of a reality check.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Dimitrov either, with the Bulgarian having had shoulder problems and he was last seen producing a huge choke at Wimbledon.
His opponent Kevin King could easily have lost to both Guido Andreozzi and Ryan Harrison in qualies, but was saved rather by an injury to Harrison, who was a set and 4-1 up on King.
Even a rusty Dimitrov should win that one and I’m not seeing a huge amount of value elsewhere in Atlanta on Tuesday.
Soonwoo Kwon is playing some great stuff at the moment and isn’t without a chance of going on a run this week in the form he’s in, but he’s as short as 1.29 to defeat Prajnesh Gunneswaran.
Bernard Tomic has, to the surprise of nobody, lost his appeal against his Wimbledon fine for lack of effort and you’d think that Frances Tiafoe would be the more motivated man here (it’d be a worry for Tiafoe if he wasn’t).
I’m just waiting for Bernie to pop up and win a 250 without dropping a set just to show us all he can do it if he wants to, but it doesn’t look like happening at the moment.
So, just what will now be a small wager (due to that injury scare) on Sandgren for me on Tuesday, but there are plenty of options in Hamburg for underdog backers, too.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Sandgren to beat Albot at 1.98
