It was the same story on day two as on day one when the bet I took on lost and the other option won, while an outright hope was beaten as favourite (1.27 in-play).
Malek Jaziri found Robin Haase in rare serving form, with the Dutchman firing down nine aces and winning 87% on his first ball to provide a platform to win a match in which both men created three break points.
Haase took all three of his and that was the difference, while the other one in Marrakech that I considered, Jiri Vesely, beat Fabio Fognini in straight sets.
As for Federico Delbonis, well, he held four set points (at *5-3 and 5-4) and also led in the ensuing set one tie break against what surely must be a half-fit Pablo Andujar and still somehow contrived to lose it and the next five games in a tame surrender.
We’ve got four matches on the card in Marrakech on Wednesday and all four underdogs have chances, with Kyle Edmund perhaps a touch short at 1.48 against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
I’d have made Kyle favourite, but not by that much, and if he’s fit Tsonga is certainly still capable of pressing the Brit, even on clay, with the forecast being for sunshine on Wednesday.
You do get your reward for attacking play on this surface and this could be an entertaining affair, quite possibly a closer one than the prices suggest.
Adrian Menendez Maceiras has a very ordinary record indeed at main level (6-17 win/loss) and his win over a probably rusty Fernando Verdasco (new dad) was his first at this level on clay.
Even so, I still can’t countenance the idea of backing Taro Daniel to beat him at 1.42, with Daniel surely flattered by another lame effort from Mischa Zverev in the last round.
What puts me off Menendez is the eight sets he’s played to get to this stage and Daniel should have much more gas in the tank than the 33-year-old here.
Guido Andreozzi isn’t without a shot of beating Gilles Simon, who, if he’s in one of his passive frames of mind, could fall into the same trap as Albert Ramos of waiting for Andreozzi to miss.
Andreozzi isn’t missing much at the moment and I’d expect a decent battle and quite possibly a three-set affair here if Simon is to win it playing reactive tennis.
Finally, Robin Haase looks a much more appealing prospect as a 2.15 underdog against Lorenzo Sonego than he did as a 1.43 chance versus Jaziri, with Sonego potentially a little flattered by his win over Laslo Djere.
I’m not sure if Djere is fit at the moment (no stream for that match) and Sonego at 1.71 doesn’t appeal at all, but as I mentioned yesterday, Haase very rarely wins back-to-back matches in the clay swing and I prefer a wager in Houston.
Ryan Harrison vs Henri Laaksonen
This is one of several keenly contested matches, according to the prices, in Houston on Wednesday and I like the chances of slight underdog Laaksonen to progress on this surface against the erratic American.
Harrison’s record on clay is weak, usually lacking the patience to construct rallies and relying on his hard court game of big serve and heavy forehand to win his points.
It hasn’t transferred well to either grass or clay, with that lack of variety usually costing him: on clay he hasn’t won back-to-back matches at main level since here in Houston way back in 2012.
In all he’s 13-24 win/loss on clay (35% win rate) and even on this US clay in Houston he’s 5-6, losing four of his last six at this tournament.
Stats-wise he’s broken serve only 14.2% of the time on clay, creating only 0.38 break chances per game, so if he’s not serving well he leaves himself a lot to do on this surface.
Laaksonen, on the other hand, has won eight of his last 13 main level matches on clay and both all-time and in his last 10 matches the Swiss breaks serve around 30% of the time, creating 0.65 break chances per game.
Holding his own serve has been more of an issue, with around 70% holds, but so far this week he’s held 87.8% of the time and after three matches he’s in a good groove just now.
Harrison played well in his first match against Ivo Karlovic, who was not on a good day on serve, but putting together back-to-back matches has been a real problem for Harrison away from hard courts.
The price is probably based on the 3-1 head-to-head career series in favour of Harrison, but they were back in 2015 and 2016, so not that relevant.
Elsewhere in Houston, Christian Garin looks a tad short as favourite against Jeremy Chardy and perhaps the good form of Garin of late is being taken into account too much here on this unusual clay surface.
Garin is very inexperienced against the big serving types on the tour and we’ll see how he copes with Chardy’s brand of tennis today. I’m not convinced that he should be favourite here, but who can be sure with Chardy?
It’s a similar story with Casper Ruud against our man Reilly Opelka, with Ruud nowhere near the Opelka serve (admittedly on a pacy hard court) when they clashed in the past.
It’s set to be very warm and sunny today in Houston, so that will probably make the Opelka serve tough for Ruud to deal with again.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Laaksonen to beat Harrison at 1.95
