Frances Tiafoe couldn’t capitalise on a set lead against Denis Shapovalov in Miami on Thursday, eventually losing in three to the Canadian, but with a couple of days to go it’s still been a successful tournament for our daily bets.
The semi final stage of the Miami hasn’t been a good one for betting underdogs this decade, with only three of 15 winning (20%), but seven of those 15 matches did feature at least one tie break.
They start at 13:00 local time (17:00 UK) on Friday, with the defending Miami champion facing the new young star of the men’s game.
John Isner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
The Canadian teen keeps on improving faster than most observers expected him to and he’s ensured that a few records have needed to be rewritten already this week in Miami.
Having already become the youngest player ever to make the quarters and the semis at the Miami Open he now looks to become the first qualifier to make the final here since 2007.
He can’t surpass the achievement of Michael Chang, who won the Canada Masters back in 1990 when aged 18 years and five months, but he’ll be the youngest finalist since then if he beats Isner.
Only Guillermo Canas in 2007 has made the final in Miami as a qualifier and if Felix is going to do it he’ll need to do something he hasn’t yet managed to do: beat one of the big servers in my database.
He’s only had two attempts so far, but they haven’t gone well, with FAA losing in straight sets to Ivo Karlovic (January 2019 in Pune) and to Milos Raonic (Indian Wells 2018).
Auger-Aliassime was favourite for the Karlovic match at 1.55 and a matter of days after that encounter the Canadian was also beaten by another big serving type in Christopher Eubanks in qualies for the Australian Open.
That loss led Felix’s coach Fredéric Fontang to say of Karlovic and Eubanks: “They’re guys who serve hard, take risks. Felix has to improve his return.”
It could certainly be argued that FAA has done just that since Fontang made those comments back in January, as his charge has broken serve 27.6% of the time in 2019 at main level on all surfaces (an identical number on outdoor hard alone, too).
The question remains though: can he cope with the big servers and specifically the delivery of Isner?
FAA hasn’t played any big servers since that Eubanks loss and if Isner comes out and makes 74% of first serves and hits 24 aces in 12 service games (two per game) as he did against Roberto Bautista Agut it may be very much out of the teen’s hands.
He doesn’t sound overly confident about the match-up either: “It's always tough for me against big servers, but I'll try to find a way to put pressure on his side.”
Isner has been on particularly weak returning form this tournament, breaking serve only 5.8% of the time and playing a whopping 0.88 tie breaks per set, but against such an inexperienced opponent who clearly has a bit of a weakness against big servers he might get a break or two today.
If Isner keeps on serving like he has been (1.5 aces per game this tournament and 96.1% holds) I can see a situation whereby the pressure to keep holding will probably be too much for FAA.
It’s not the most appealing betting day, as it often isn’t in semis and finals, so half a point on Isner -2.5 games is all I’ll be doing today.
After that at (not before) 19:00 local (23:00) UK Roger Federer takes on Denis Shapovalov for the first time and we might very well not see a tie break in this one.
Federer has only played one tie break set in his last 28 sets against left handers and three in his last 65 sets on hard courts alone (indoor and outdoor).
Only Federer since his coach Ivan Ljubicic back in 2006 has made the Miami final as a single hander and Fed has only made the final once since beating Ljubicic in that 2006 final, so it’s been a tough tournament for players with a one-handed backhand to go really deep.
It’s also been a tough event for lefties, with Marcelo Rios being the last one to win it back in 1998.
Fed’s record against left-handers ranked lower than 20 in the world rankings is a stellar 109-10, with Albert Ramos in the 2015 Shanghai Masters in 2015 the last one to beat him.
And you have to back a further 11 years to find his previous defeat on a hard court against a 20+ ranked lefty, which was here in Miami in 2004 when a then-34 ranked Nadal beat him.
He’s only lost once since 1999 in a semi final to a left-hander not named Nadal and that was Federico Delbonis on clay in Hamburg, while in all his main level semi finals when priced up as a sub-1.30 favourite he’s 36-3 win/loss.
All of that said, Federer is coming to the end of a busy period, making the final in Indian Wells and now the semis here and it wouldn’t be much of a shock if Shapovalov were to make a match of this.
He enjoys the big stage and there’s no pressure on him at all, so he could well revel in the role of underdog in this one.
I’m not tempted into a bet though and I’ll stick with just one bet on Friday.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Isner -2.5 games to beat Auger-Aliassime at 2.30
