We’re back to the much more open and potentially profitable ATP 250 events this week on the tour and after two nice-priced finalists in the opening weeks of the season let’s see what we can do in Montpellier, Sofia and the new event in Cordoba.
Conditions and trends
At the Sofia Open, they play on a lively Proflex indoor hard court, with Head ATP balls and there’s a bit of altitude to consider, with Sofia being the second highest capital city in Europe (behind Madrid).
There were two huge-priced finalists in Sofia a year ago when Mirza Basic won it as a qualifier and Marius Copil made the final as a 50-1 chance.
Sadly (for those of us who’d done well backing Victor Estrella Burgos) the Quito event at huge altitude has gone and been replaced by a new tournament in Argentina – the Cordoba Open.
As it’s brand new there’s nothing to go on in terms of conditions or trends, so we’ll have to wait and see on that one, but Buenos Aires is usually one of the slowest clay events around.
At the Open Sud De France it’ll be a rare year in Montpellier where Richard Gasquet won’t be one of the finalists.
The Gasman has made the final the last six years running, but he’s out this year, due to groin surgery a few weeks ago.
They play on a lively Greenset indoor hard court that Gasquet said in 2018 was: “faster than last year, with the balls too. They are faster than in the past.”
No qualifier has made the Montpellier final yet and it’s always been won by one of the top-five seeds.
Cordoba Open
I expect there to be a fair chance of an ‘upset’ here in a tournament that’s new to all the players and the first clay event of the season and I’m happy to take Fabio Fognini on this week.
The last three years straight Fognini has lost his opening match in his first clay tournament (not including Davis Cup) and not since he won Vina Del Mar in 2014 has he been past the quarter finals in his opening clay event of the year.
I’m also happy to avoid backing the home players this week, with none of the seven Argentinean players in the main draw having made a final at home and only Carlos Berlocq (two) and Federico Delbonis (one) have ever made a semi final on home soil at main level.
Several of them have spoken about nerves playing here and having watched Davis Cup in Argentina myself I’m not too surprised about that, given the passionate fans they’re trying to please.
I’m also happy to take on the high seed in the bottom half of the draw, Marco Cecchinato, whose record in South America is shocking.
Cecchinato is 0-11 win/loss in this continent and he’s lost his last 15 sets in a row in that run – eight of which were last season – although before he made his main level breakthrough in April in Budapest.
It’s still enough to put me off though and of all three of this week’s events this is the one that looks much the likeliest to produce a big-priced winner of the ilk of Roberto Carballes Baena, who won Quito this time last year to the surprise of most observers.
RCB is in the field here, but there’s no huge altitude to help him this time around and it would be another shock if RCB were to retain his 250 ranking points this week.
The obvious form pick in the bottom half is Pablo Carreno Busta, but his clay numbers and results are nowhere as good as on outdoor hard, with PCB failing to make a final in his 10 clay events in 2018 (hold/break total of only 102.3).
He’s another one that’s failed to show any form in this part of the world so far in his career, with a 2-6 win/loss record at all levels in Argentina (and he lost three of his first four matches on clay last year to Andrej Martin, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Bedene) and I’m also harbouring doubts about the other seed in this section, Nicolas Jarry.
The tall Chilean won both matches in Davis Cup at the weekend, but he’s coming a long way back from Austria and with an inability to break serve usually his downfall I’d want faster conditions than we’re likely to get here for Jarry.
The only main level final he’s made was at altitude in Sao Paulo (also a semi at altitude in Kitzbuhel) and I’m of a mind to take a small chance on the outsiders this week in Cordoba.
Aljaz Bedene, last year’s 40-1 Buenos Aires finalist, would have been on the shortlist, but he’s 0-7 against Fognini and that sort of head-to-head is surely very much in the mind of the Slovenian.
Pablo Cuevas still has good clay stats at main level (105.6 hold/break total for 2018) but his lack of ability to break serve too often costs him and his 4-10 win/loss tie break record meant that he went 9-10 win/loss in main level clay matches last season.
I’m overlooking Diego Schwartzman and Guido Pella for their records at home, while Albert Ramos is lacking in confidence these days and has started the season looking well out of sorts.
Surprisingly, it’s actually Malek Jaziri (107.9) that has the best clay main level hold/break total of anyone in the tournament, but his fitness has been a major issue for him so far this campaign and I’m not sure he has the stamina to win an event like this on slow clay.
Pablo Andujar popped up at 100-1 to win Casablanca last season, making a dream return from injury, and he also won the Challenger in Buenos Aires a few months ago.
In his 13 main level clay matches in 2018 he compiled a handy 104.5 hold/break total (7-6 win/loss) and if he’s fit Andujar could conceivably spring a surprise at a decent price.
The other one I like is Jaume Munar, who’s shown his ability over the last six months or so, even on unsuitably quick surfaces, and back on the clay it wouldn’t surprise me if he went deep this week.
Finally, 33-1 about Cam Norrie, who went so well for us in Auckland at a similar price looks tempting, with the Brit having started his career on clay at main level well: winning five of his eight matches (105.2 hold/break total) and he also took down Roberto Bautista Agut on clay over five sets in Davis Cup.
He’ll be confident after a good start to the season and while he lacks experience, having never played a match in South America, I don’t mind half a point at this price in the circumstances of most players playing their first tournament on clay for quite some time.
Sofia Open
This looks to be between Karen Khachanov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, with Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils other notable names in with a shot in Bulgaria.
Indeed, I could make cases for quite a few here, with Martin Klizan very capable in these conditions; Nikoloz Basilashvili improving and having gone well here before; and Marius Copil compiling some superb stats indoors last season.
Indeed, Copil, last year’s Sofia finalist, is on a hold/break total of 107 from his dozen matches (8-4 win/loss) on indoor hard in 2018, but a route to the final of Wawrinka, Verdasco, Khachanov and probably RBA looks too tough.
RBA looks to have the best of the draw and combined with his early season form, fine record in Sofia (5-1 win/loss and hold/break total of 109.8) and a good match-up against Khachanov I’d make him favourite this week.
The bottom half, with Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Monfils, Basilashvili and Klizan (and Jan Lennard Struff and last year’s champ Mirza Basic) also looks tough, but I’m not sure that Klizan should be quite as big as 60-1.
His nine matches in Sofia have seen the hit and miss Slovak win six of them and produce a hold/break total of 110.7, so he’s certainly in with a shot if – and it’s a biggish ‘if’ – he finds his best form coming straight from Davis Cup duty on clay.
Medvedev has a 3-0 career series lead over Tsitsipas and I’d prefer the Russian over the Greek in this half anyway, but neither are backable for me at around 4-1, and at these prices my only interest would be a bit on Klizan.
Open Sud de France
Once again the Montpellier title seems likely to go to one of the top half dozen in the betting and the only ones I thought about backing here were Ernests Gulbis at 33-1 and Ilya Ivashka and/or Ivo Karlovic at 40-1 apiece.
Ivashka and Karlovic are in the section of the draw containing Denis Shapovalov, who’s coming from playing Davis Cup on the clay, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert, whose record indoors last season at main level was a poor 4-7 win/loss.
Ivashka has impressed indoors at main level so far, with a 107.1 hold/break total from only seven matches (5-2 win/loss) and if he’s able to keep that up he has every chance of doing something, while Karlovic looks back to form this season and can’t be discounted at a big price in quickish conditions.
Lucas Pouille’s return to form in Melbourne perhaps masks his mediocre record on indoor hard, where he’s managed only a 99.3 hold/break total in his last 13 main level matches in these conditions.
Gulbis has the quality on a good week to take advantage, but it’s a tough half, with the likes of Pouille, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Jeremy Chardy just some of the opposition.
It’s also worth noting that a qualifier has made either the quarter final or the semi final (never the final) in four of the last five years in Montpellier.
Conclusion
Cordoba looks the tournament with the most prospects this week for me, and small investments on Norrie, Andujar and Munar look the ones, while I won’t be having a bet at all in Montpellier. In Sofia just half a point on Klizan at a big price looks the best value option.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Munar in Cordoba at 21.0
0.5 points win Andujar in Cordoba at 26.0
0.5 points win Norrie in Cordoba at 34.0
0.5 points win Klizan in Sofia at 61.0
