Debrief
It was a break even week for us in Brisbane, Doha and Pune to start the year, with our 14-1 pick Daniil Medvedev losing in the final set of the title match in Brisbane after we’d put in a covering bet on Kei Nishikori.
We also played the right tactics in Pune in taking on Hyeon Chung in the bottom half, but our man Ramkumar Ramanathan lost a bad one from 1.10 in-play to Malek Jaziri and it was another 50-1 chance, Ivo Karlovic that made the final (and almost won it).
In Doha, Novak Djokovic’s surprise defeat from a set and a break up on Roberto Bautista Agut allowed a couple of big-priced finalists there, with RBA going on to land the title as a 33-1 shot, ahead of 66-1 Tomas Berdych.
Conditions
The Ken Rosewall Arena in Sydney is getting a roof, but not in time for this year’s event and we’ve already seen rain delays in qualifying, and there are thunderstorms expected on and off all week.
They play on a Plexicushion outdoor hard court and this year with Dunlop balls replacing Wilson ones in the Australian swing, of which Matt Ebden said: “Fair ball – not too different from the previous [Wilson Australian Open] ball.”
It’s usually regarded as being quickish, but it doesn’t rank as one of the highest events of the year in terms of tie breaks played by any means, ranking equal 39th of all the tournaments on tour in that regard.
Players that lack power, such as Alex De Minaur and Dan Evans have made the final here in recent years, so it’s not a lock for the big hitters here.
At the ASB Classic in Auckland they also play on a Plexicushion surface that’s been rated as quicker since it was resurfaced in 2017.
ASB Classic
The withdrawal of Roberto Bautista Agut has really opened up the bottom half of the draw and while qualifiers usually have a poor record in Auckland they may well have a shot this time around.
All of them have been placed in a bottom half that looks wide open, with the high seeds Marco Cecchinato and Fabio Fognini preferring slower surfaces and in Fognini’s case his best ever result in his opening tournament of the season was last year when he made the semis in Sydney.
The man that replaced RBA in the bottom half of the draw (moved from the top half) Steve Johnson has a good record in Auckland and will be dangerous if he’s match ready.
His fellow American Tennys Sandgren has a lot of points to defend in Melbourne and he played pretty well for a couple of sets against John Millman last week in Brisbane, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him have a bit of a resurgence in Auckland.
Cecchinato has shown some improvement on hard courts of late, but he’s still hard to fancy to win a title on this sort of surface, so that top quarter looks pretty open.
The final quarter sees Gael Monfils (who won his opening event of the year last season in Doha) play Auckland for the first time since 2013 and I’ve heard very little about him of late, other than he has another new coach: Liam Smith is the new man.
Monfils is more than capable of winning this week, but we are guessing as to his fitness and match sharpness, while Philipp Kohlschreiber hasn’t made a final on a hard court since here in Auckland back in 2013. (Kohli also has an awful record against Monfils).
In the top half of the draw I’m happy to take on John Isner, whose starts to seasons have been slow lately, and also top seeds have struggled here recently, with David Ferrer in 2013 the last number one seed to make the Auckland final.
The ones I like here are Hyeon Chung, with Cameron Norrie as a bigger-priced alternative.
Chung’s draw looks very good and surely it’s only a matter of time until he wins his first tournament at main level with the ability that he has and the stats that he has produced on this surface.
He’s certainly lacked consistency of late, but much of that could be down to fitness – or lack of it – and perhaps some is down to tinkering with his game as well.
Chung will have his supporters at around the 10-1 mark, but his lack of consistency puts me off a bit and I prefer a small interest in Norrie, who’s compiled a very decent record on outdoor hard in the last 12 months.
A hold/break total of 104.5 and a winning 9-8 record on the surface, combined with some decent form in Hopman Cup where he took down Stefanos Tsitsipas and Frances Tiafoe makes him a lively outsider.
One would like to think that as someone brought up in New Zealand that Norrie would be motivated to do well here and around 25-1 is a fair enough price.
Pablo Carreno Busta has been a player that’s started his season slowly so far in his career and having not won a match since the US Open he may well take time to find his best form again.
Denis Shapovalov could be a contender, but again consistency has been a problem for the young Canadian and I prefer Norrie at these prices, with Shapo a 14-1 chance.
Robin Haase has a good record here (as does his opening round opponent David Ferrer), but he’s yet to make a final on outdoor hard in his career and usually finds an agonising way to lose, while Ferrer ends his career in a few months in Madrid.
Ferrer has been in good form so far this year, but he says he can’t play more than two straight matches now and this quarter should go the way of Chung.
Sydney International
We may well have a similar situation in Sydney to the one in Auckland in the sense that the favoured player in the bottom half of the draw may well decide to take it easy this week after a tough opening week of the season.
With the Australian Open starting next Monday Daniil Medvedev would be wise to not expend too much energy this week and I can’t recall any back-to-back finalists in weeks one and two of the year (although I stand to be corrected on that).
So, there may be an opportunity in the bottom half for quite a few players and also, Sydney is one tournament where qualifiers tend to go well, with three champions in the last seven years having come through qualies.
The one I like at a reasonable price in the bottom half is Marton Fucsovics, who played well against Novak Djokovic last week and also at the Australian Open last year, so he enjoys these conditions.
Indeed, Fucsovics is 20-10 in all matches played in Australia and his stats last season on outdoor hard were handy enough, too, with an 11-10 win/loss mark and a 104 hold/break combined total.
He really should be beating James Duckworth in round one and there isn’t too much in this half that should worry Fucsovics.
The Hungarian beat Sam Querrey in Melbourne a year ago and Querrey has a weak record in Australia overall, losing nine of his last 12 matches here and never making a quarter final.
The man we backed last week in Brisbane, John Millman, is also in there with a shout, but his price of 25-1 is half the odds he was last week and I’d favour the more aggressive game of Fucsovics in these conditions.
Millman also has a tough one first up against Frances Tiafoe, who’s struggled in Australia so far, losing his last six matches here at all levels, but Tiafoe couldn’t be counted out of contention here on his best form.
Gilles Simon has a very good record in Sydney, but all of that is from is from 2011 when he won it and he’s only played once here since and 10-1 looks very short to me on the veteran Frenchman.
Alex De Minaur has the sort of form and stats that give him a great chance, but he’s under a different kind of pressure this year in the Australian summer and given that he’s also vulnerable to big hitters in these conditions his price of around 7-1 doesn’t tempt me.
The qualifier in this half Reilly Opelka is interesting, with the huge serving American unbroken in qualies and he’s confident again, having won back-to-back Challengers at the end of last season and beating two clay courters, Andujar and Daniel already this week.
He faces another in round one in Albert Ramos and it’ll be interesting to see how far his serve takes him this week as a 40-1 chance.
Moving on to the top half of the draw and this looks open as well, with top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas not even on 100 in his hold/break stats on outdoor hard in 2018 and for me a player that has struggled in the heat so far in his career.
Top seeds have a weak record lately in Sydney, with only one making the final since back in 2005 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see one or two of the qualifiers go well here again.
Yoshihito Nishioka has been playing some good tennis lately and Andrey Rublev has form (admittedly on clay) of winning a title when not in the main draw, so I wouldn’t count those two out at all.
They’re both in a quarter of the draw that has the struggling Lucas Pouille, who’s really gone backwards of late, and Diego Schwartzman, who’ll surely find conditions in Sydney too fast for him.
I don’t fancy any of the runners in the Tsitsipas quarter of the draw, but at a tasty price of around 40-1 Nishioka stands a chance. Rublev is too short for me at 16-1 given his issues on second serve and while Nishioka is hardly a strong server he has recent winning form on quick outdoor hard.
Conclusion
In Sydney, then, I’m siding with Fucsovics in the bottom half, with a small bet on Nishioka to continue the fine results of qualifiers in Sydney, while in Auckland I’m happy to back Norrie at a decent price.
Best Bets
1 point win Fucsovics to win Sydney at 17.0
0.5 points win Nishioka to win Sydney at 41.0
1 point win Norrie to win Auckland at 26.0
