Day five of Wimbledon produced a profit for us again, thanks to David Goffin’s five set win over Daniil Medvedev in an entertaining and fluctuating contest that the Belgian just about deserved to edge in the end, although he did it the hard way.
We didn’t get any luck in the expected opening set tie break between Milos Raonic and Reilly Opelka, however, when the latter started it poorly and Raonic had all the fortune going, leading to a comfortable breaker for the Canadian.
Elsewhere, I said that Guido Pella was underrated against Kevin Anderson, given Anderson’s lack of matches lately, but I wasn’t expecting a 3-0 win for Pella and I’m glad I didn’t go for the overs in the end in that one, as that would have been painful.
The remaining eight matches from round three of the men’s singles are scheduled for Saturday when a humid day is expected (55 to 65% humidity) and with a small chance of some rain.
After Marin Cilic’s lamentable performance against Joao Sousa we’re left with just Sam Querrey to win Q3 from an outright perspective, but Querrey can’t complain about his draw.
Getting him past Dominic Thiem was fraught with danger, especially after a poor performance in the Eastbourne final, but Querrey looks in good shape now after easily beating Andrey Rublev in round two.
Now he takes on John Millman, who will battle and scrap and make life hard for Querrey, who will have to be on his game to get past the determined Aussie in a third career clash, but first for five years (2-0 Querrey so far).
Millman has held 88% of the time in his last 10 main level matches on grass and the over 1.5 tie breaks is tempting here, with Millman losing 6-7, 6-7, 6-7 to Milos Raonic here a year ago.
Hopefully Querrey will get it done easier than that, but this is Sam Querrey we’re talking about.
Should he win he’ll face the winner of two players who’ll quite possibly be exhausted after Tennys Sandgren and Fabio Fognini both had to go five to get to round three.
We backed Sandgren outright at Eastbourne and he let us down against a fatigued Gilles Simon and then proceeded to rub salt into the wounds by beating the very same Simon at Wimbledon.
Simon did say he was ill though: “I'm sick, with a sore throat and headaches, and I did not sleep last night,” he said after losing to Sandgren. “I actually thought it was going to end quickly, but I came back without really expecting it.”
Fognini edged out Marton Fucsovics in a tight five and he edged out Sandgren in a final set tie break on quick clay in Geneva and in two tie breaks in slower conditions in Rio – both last season.
Sandgren has no sort of record on proper clay, so it’s fair to assume that he’ll cause Fognini even more problems on grass, so 3.45 on him is a tempting proposition.
If I recall correctly – and I’m not likely to forget it, having backed Johnson to win set one – Steve Johnson led Kei Nishikori 5-2 in that set of their last clash (and also 6-2 in the tie break) yet still lost it.
But two tie breaks on a bouncy court like those at Indian Wells, where that match was played (and back when Kei was a better player than he is these days post-wrist surgery) suggests that on grass Johnson might be able to do something as a 4.40 underdog here.
That said, Nishikori beat Johnson on grass in straight sets in their only career clash (again, pre-wrist surgery) and is 4-0 overall and you wouldn’t have thought that it’s much of a contest when it comes to a backhand versus backhand battle, with Nishi having a great one and Johnson’s very limited indeed.
Matteo Berrettini vs Diego Schwartzman
But the underdog with perhaps the best chance of a big upset on Monday could be Schwartzman, who’s enjoying himself on this slowish grass and has a better record than one would think against big servers.
Renowned as one of the best returners in the game, Schwartzman had no problem at all with the Berrettini big serve when they met on clay in Rome six weeks or so ago, limiting Berrettini to just 55% of points won on the Italian’s first serve.
It’ll be harder on grass, of course, but Schwartzman can do it on the quicker surfaces, too, winning half of his 14 matches on outdoor hard against the big servers on my list, breaking serve 26.7% of the time.
That is impressive and almost identical to the 26.9% of the time that Novak Djokovic breaks serve against the same group of players on outdoor hard.
He’s beaten Cilic, Querrey (twice), Muller, Opelka, Johnson and Copil on hard and Berrettini and Anderson on clay, plus Cilic just a few weeks ago on quick grass at Queen’s, so unless Berrettini brings a supreme level to the court I can see this being a test.
Berrettini himself said of Schwartzman: “He has a style which particularly bothers me,” while the Argentine opined, of this clash: “If I play well, he will not enjoy the match much because he will have to make many balls and run a lot.”
And I agree with both of them, plus we also need to consider that the grass here appears slower than at the events where Berrettini cleaned up earlier this grass swing.
Again, Berrettini: “I was talking about it with Auger-Aliassime – the grass here is totally different from Stuttgart and Halle. Forward play pays, but you have to attack carefully. The point must be built.”
I’m happy to go with Schwartzman +4.5 games in this one at odds-against.
And what of the two superstars, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal?
Both might well be challenged by French opposition today, with Federer not really showing much in the way of encouraging form yet this Wimbledon and Nadal often vulnerable at this tournament.
We know that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at his best can beat Nadal, as he has done in Shanghai, Melbourne, Queen’s Club and indoors at the O2, but what has Jo got left at the top level?
At 34 and with a lot of injuries he’s not the player he was, but he did give Federer all he could handle in Halle when Fed was lucky to get the win a few weeks back and he’ll be more than up for this one.
Most players might be feeling a bit of a let down after an emotionally charged four setter, as Nadal had against Nick Kyrgios, but Nadal doesn’t really suffer from mental lapses as other players do.
That said, he has produced several performances lacking in passion here at Wimbledon in recent years and if Tsonga finds his best tennis the Frenchman is in with a chance, as the courts harden up and (presumably) get quicker.
Lucas Pouille tends to play his best stuff at majors and if he can serve at his best and not be overawed by the occasion of facing Federer on Centre Court at Wimbledon he might well make a match of this.
Pouille hasn’t faced Federer since the Frenchman was ranked 176 in the world back in 2014, but if he brings his best level to the court he has the weapons to at least make Federer work hard.
So, quite a few of the underdogs look like they could potentially do some damage on their best form on Saturday, but I’ll take Schwartzman as my wager.
Best Bet
1 point win Schwartzman +4.5 games to beat Berrettini at 2.23
