The rain put paid to a full programme of play in New York on Wednesday and while there are still many matches held over from Wednesday on day one it’s going to be a busy day four, with now 27 men’s singles matches set for Thursday.
At least they all look likely to get played, as the weather is forecast to be warm and sunny all day at 28C in the shade, but with lower humidity (35-40%) and some wind around, too.
Of the few matches that did get played on Wednesday we landed a comfortable winner at around evens when Dominik Koepfer not only covered the handicap, but beat Reilly Opelka in straight sets.
Our other bet from yesterday is still to play, but already the prices in the Dan Evans versus Lucas Pouille match have changed to a more realistic level after Pouille was put in too short initially.
I said at the start of the tournament that I was itching to take on Dominic Thiem in Q3, but couldn’t settle on one player to do it with, and most of the main contenders in this quarter have already gone.
Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roberto Bautista Agut all fell in round one and it’s anyone’s quarter now, with Nick Kyrgios, Gael Monfils, Denis Shapovalov and Andrey Rublev the leading quartet to take advantage and make the semis.
All four are scheduled to be in action on Thursday, with Nick Kyrgios likely to be way too powerful for Antoine Hoang to deal with, while Andrey Rublev faces a Gilles Simon who has a 4.5-hour marathon in his legs already.
Simon surely can’t keep playing wars of attrition at his age, but if this match is significantly delayed by the weather (it probably won’t be if the forecast is correct) it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if Simon were able to outsmart the Russian in this one.
Assuming Simon has the energy Rublev will need to play well to win this comfortably and in his last nine matches against the ‘baseline grinders’ in my database he’s only won one in straight sets.
Gael Monfils is also facing an opponent that had a real battle in round one and that’s Marius Copil, who took four hours and 18 minutes to beat Ugo Humbert in round one.
Again, any delay would help Copil, but unless Monfils is injured again it’s hard to see Copil besting Lamonf over the best of five sets.
Similarly, Denis Shapovalov faces an opponent who went long in round one when he faces Henri Laaksonen, who edged out poor old Marco Cecchinato in almost four hours in round one.
Just like Monfils, Rublev and Kyrgios, Shapo is facing his round two opponent for the first time, but Laaksonen – and potentially a fatigued Laaksonen at that – with his game based on the forehand, is 1-4 at main level so far against lefties.
Shapo looks in better spirits since starting to work with Mikhail Youzhny and he clearly enjoys the atmosphere at this tournament, so he looks likely to be a contender in Q3.
We’ve had success in taking on the big guys so far this US Open and I’m happy to continue to do that on Thursday with a wager on Jan-Lennard Struff to beat John Isner as slight underdog.
John Isner vs Jan-Lennard Struff
Isner is another one of those big, huge serving sorts that tend not to fare well over the best of five sets in hot conditions at the US Open and on what’s set to be a warm day I’m happy to take him on with Struff.
Isner has certainly had his share of odds-on defeats here at his home major and I’m yet to really see anything from the big man since his foot injury back in March that suggests he’s close to his best form currently.
Losing to Pablo Carreno Busta in lively conditions in Cincy was another weak result for Isner, as was the defeat to Cristian Garin in Montreal, so I think there’s a bit of a case of the layers pricing this one up on past form and possibly that great myth of ‘home advantage’.
Playing in front of his home fans didn’t do Opelka much good against a German last night and the same may well be the case for Isner, who’s lost here three times to another German, Philipp Kohlschreiber (and to another one, Mischa Zverev)
Now it’s the turn of a different German, Struff, to try and inflict a sixth odds-on loss upon Isner at the US Open (Kyle Edmund was the other one apart from Kohli and Zverev) and he’s in the form to do it.
Struff’s self-belief has been on the up for a while now and it’s seen him overtake the likes of Isner in terms of his combined service hold/break numbers, leading Isner marginally this season on all surfaces and just on outdoor hard by just over one percent.
A small margin, yes, but Struff has been more effective against the better players than Isner over the past year on all surfaces, winning 42% of his matches and recording a hold/break of 96.5, compared to Isner’s 33% win rate and 93.1 total (Isner has broken serve just 4.7% of the time in his 12 matches).
Struff has being doing reasonably well against the big servers in my database as well, winning eight of his last 13 and the head-to-head with Isner of 3-0 in Isner’s favour goes back too far to be relevant today (last meeting in 2016).
Struff also has a good record in tie breaks on outdoor hard lately, winning six of his last eight, showing his improved mental level and I’m happy to take him as underdog here.
Elsewhere, it looks a day short on value, with Vasek Pospisil one possibility, but he’s one whose fitness I don’t really trust and he’s coming off the back of a five setter, as is opponent Tennys Sandgren.
Marin Cilic is one who, if he’s not feeling it, can be beaten by the baseline grinder type, as he showed at Wimbledon when he couldn’t find the court against Joao Sousa and lost in straight sets as a 1.19 chance.
He faces that sort of challenge today in Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, who wins by being solid and hard to beat, and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if Cilic had to battle here – he certainly will if he’s having one of his off days and there have been plenty of those in 2019 from Cilic.
Best Bet
1 point win Struff to beat Isner at 2.16
