We got back to winning ways quickly in New York on Monday when our underdog Diego Schwartzman exposed the frailties in the game of Alexander Zverev in a four set win that was pretty comfortable in the end.
We move on to the quarter finals on Tuesday and it’s set to be dry and sunny at around 26C in the shade, with little chance of rain, so it should be a roof open day if that is correct.
If you’d offered me odds-against about Daniil Medvedev beating Stan Wawrinka a few weeks ago I’d probably have snapped your hand off, but I can’t possibly bet on any outcome in that quarter final now.
Stan’s luck could well be in, with Novak Djokovic not fit to really compete in their round four clash and he might well get more of the same with a bedraggled Medvedev, who’s credited a spat with the crowd for being able to sty the course in his last two matches.
Among Medvedev’s quotes following a come from behind win over qualifier Dominik Koepfer in round four are:
“I felt groin pain, practiced just 15 minutes and thought that if it's painful during the match I will not play. I took painkillers, got better. But again if they [the crowd] didn't cheer against me then I felt pain. And I stepped on the court and told myself: I will not lose against them [the crowd].
“Today I was losing 6-2 2-0. I was painful in my adductor. Before the match I thought I wasn’t going to play – I was painful in my shoulder. I took as much painkillers as I could. You guys [the crowd] being against me gave me so much energy to win. Thank you!”
The Russian has played more than twice as many sets in the last month that Wawrinka and all this has been priced in, as Medvedev would probably have been a solid favourite to win, all things being equal.
Given that Wawrinka is a strong man that hits a heavy ball and he should be in much better shape than his opponent it’s set up for the Swiss to progress and probably meet his compatriot in the semi finals, but it was reported that Stan was sick in the locker room after the Djokovic match.
If he’s unwell it might be that Medvedev’s luck could be in, but either way this one is guesswork and it’s a big ‘avoid’ for me.
Frankly, the second quarter final doesn’t look to be much to get that excited about from a betting point of view either, with Roger Federer holding a massive advantage in the career series against Grigor Dimitrov.
The pair have met on seven occasions (all of hard courts or grass) and Federer has won the lot and held serve an impressive 95.3% of the time against his Bulgarian opponent, who’s managed to hold his won deal just 70.9% of the time.
The pair have pretty similar styles of play (hence the ‘Baby Fed’ comparisons year ago) but Federer does it better and he’s the one that’s been and is always likely to be the more composed in key moments.
Indeed, Federer has saved 86.1% of the break points against him in this match up, while Dimitrov has only fended off 59.7% of the break point chances he’s had to face.
It could be argued on those stats that Fed isn’t likely to carry on saving break points at that rate, but Dimitrov, rather similarly to Goffin, has always struggled to impose himself against the elite.
He’s 5-35 win/loss against the quartet of Federer, Nadal, Murray and Djokovic, but every now and then he does pop up with a performance against them, so I couldn’t rule out a competitive match here, with Federer’s age taken into account.
Fed has only won one of his last five major quarter finals in straight sets and he hasn’t made a semi final in New York since 2015, so I don’t think we can write his name into the semi final slot just yet.
He’s certainly lost numerous times lately at the US Open as heavy favourite, so he’s not unbeatable on Tuesday.
Fed having an off day in New York isn’t that unusual (he was pretty poor for spells against Sumit Nagal and Damir Dzumhur, both of whom he dropped sets against), but Dimitrov having a great day at the same time does feel a bit unlikely.
Perhaps it’s the case that Dimitrov is feeling no pressure at all, with no expectations on him this fortnight after a woeful season and maybe he’ll be able to relax and enjoy the occasion – by his own admission he didn’t expect to even make round four.
It’s often been the case that Dimitrov (again, like Goffin) has been competitive in sets and then either crumbled under the pressure of holding at the end or just lost his focus at the wrong time.
Federer has won plenty of sets against Dimitrov 6-4, including three of the last four opening sets they’ve contested and six of the last 12 in total versus the Bulgarian.
The 6-4 to Federer in set one is a 4.70 shout and that and the 3-1 set betting score to the Swiss look the best options on a day where value is at a premium.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Federer to beat Dimitrov 3-1 at 3.55
0.5 points win Federer to win set one 6-4 at 4.75
