It was a decent day’s tennis betting for us at the US Open on Tuesday, thanks to a very welcome 6-1 winner in the form of Thomas Fabbiano and Andrey Rublev also weighed in with one, too.
Anyone who took my other suggestions of Cedrik-Marcel Stebe outlasting Filip Krajinovic and avoiding backing Kyle Edmund would have enjoyed the day as well, but Leo Mayer was dismal against Antoine Hoang on a superb day for underdog backers.
Ten betting underdogs won on the day and some at tasty prices, with Fabbiano, Mikhail Kukushkin and Vasek Pospisil the really big-priced ones.
I said at the start of the week that Q3 looked really open and that I couldn’t decide on one player to take Thiem on with and now it really is anyone’s.
Looking at the stats for round two of the men’s singles in New York over the last seven years we find that 21% of the underdogs have won (7% fewer than in round one) and the tie break average is the same as in round one at 45% of the matches featuring at least one breaker.
We’re set for a steamy old day in Flushing on Wednesday, with 70% humidity to go with 28C heat in the shade and there are thunderstorms in the forecast as well, so if the rain stays away it’ll be a physical test for the players.
Reilly Opelka vs Dominik Koepfer
And I’ve said before that the really big guys tend not to fare well here in New York and with that in mind I’m happy to take on Reilly Opelka today ins some way.
We saw Ivo Karlovic really struggling in the heat yesterday – and it wasn’t that hot by New York standards on Tuesday – while the lack of genuine pace in these courts was perhaps one factor in Sam Querrey’s loss to Juan Ignacio Londero the other day.
Opelka got past a far from fit Fabio Fognini on day one, but in this heat I expect his fitness to be severely tested by Koepfer and the negative head-to-head that the German has might have done us a favour here.
Opelka has won all three of their career clashes, but they’ve been tight, and the most recent one in Dallas back in February could easily have gone the way of Koepfer, who had three match points in that one.
Indeed, if we look at the stats of their career series we find that Koepfer has held serve 93% of the time against Opelka, who’s held serve 95% of the time himself, so tie breaks looks pretty likely here.
Opelka has only managed to break serve 8.1% of the time in his last 10 matches, while Koepfer is coming here on a roll, having won eight of his last 10, qualified nicely, beating Ryan Harrison, Nicolas Mahut and Yasutaka Uchiyama for the loss of just one set.
He then toughed out what was always likely to be a grind against Jaume Munar and Koepfer has shown himself to be a decent returner of a big serve, beating Karlovic twice last season without the need for any tie breaks.
It’s Opelka’s birthday today and he’s the favourite to win, but 1.38 looks skinny and +3.5 games on Koepfer on a very hot and humid day looks a fair bet at 1.95.
Along with Koepfer, the other underdog that looks likely to produce something today – if he handles the conditions – is Dan Evans against Lucas Pouille.
The inconsistent Pouille has played one good tournament where he’s won three straight matches in his last 14 since making the semis at the Australian Open at the start of the season and because that was his most recent event (Cincy) the layers have that in mind here.
It doesn’t mean he’ll find his best form this week by any means and he wasn’t particularly impressive against a fading Philipp Kohlschreiber in round one here.
It’s Evans that leads the way in terms of stats at main level in the last 12 months, with the Brit compiling a winning 14-13 record and producing a 104.2 hold/break total (Pouille 19-20 and 99.5).
So, already I’m thinking that Pouille is too short at 1.53 for this first career meeting and I’m hopeful that Evans and his awkward slice style will deny Pouille the sort of baseline rhythm he likes.
Another tempting one is Kamil Majchrzak against Pablo Cuevas, who rarely goes well here at the US Open, with a 5-9 win/loss record and a hold/break total of 92.6 here in the main draw.
Cuevas was okay against a poor Jack Sock in round one and looks vulnerable in these conditions, but I’m a little put off by Majchrzak’s five setter a couple of days ago and the likely brutal humidity today.
And it’s a similar story for me with Cristian Garin, who looks a tempting option as big as around 3-1 to beat Alex De Minaur.
Garin is the one with the more natural power, while De Minaur has to work very hard to win the majority of his points and I’d question whether that style is well suited to today’s US Open conditions.
But Garin had a tough match in round one and I think he had the physio out in that one, so maybe I’ll pass on him as well.
Elsewhere, Borna Coric looked decent in round one and is likely to be too solid for Grigor Dimitrov, but 1.55 doesn’t appeal to me on Coric.
Given Nikoloz Basilashvili’s chronic inability to win matches in anything other than battles, due to his wild fluctuations in level in matches it may be the case that Jenson Brooksby can carry on his fine week after beating a surely almost retired Tomas Berdych.
Trying to predict what Basil will do isn’t the most appealing prospect though and I’ll stick to two bets on day three.
Best Bets
1 point win Koepfer +3.5 games to beat Opelka at 1.95
0.5 points win Evans to beat Pouille at 2.50
