We managed to find a couple of winners on Saturday in Paris when Grigor Dimitrov covered the handicap against Stan Wawrinka, before Dominic Thiem provided a 3.70 success with a 3-1 win over Pablo Cuevas.
Week two kicks off with four matches from round four of the men’s singles on Sunday and it’s a round that has seen few surprises lately, with 85% of the betting favourites winning over the last six seasons.
In five of the last six years only one underdog per year has made it through from round four to the quarter finals and it’s also a round that has featured few tie breaks – only 34% of the matches have featured one in the last half dozen seasons.
Leonardo Mayer vs Roger Federer
Mayer is serving very well at the moment and if he keeps his nerve (which is never a given with Mayer) he should be more than capable of at least pressing Federer in this one.
The Argentine in his last three matches has hit 1.02 aces per game and held 87.7% of the time, winning 78.8% of the points on first serve and a healthy 55.6% on second serve.
And the opposition hasn’t been poor either, with Jiri Vesely, Diego Schwartzman and an inspired Nicolas Mahut the vanquished trio.
Schwartzman especially is a fine returner – arguably one of the very best on tour – and he only broke Mayer twice in four tight sets of clay court tennis, so it’s worth thinking about a longer match than the layers expect here.
Federer holds serve around 88% of the time on clay and breaks around 25% of the time and I’d certainly expect him to have too much quality and composure (certainly composure) in the big moments, but in these conditions Mayer will likely have his moments.
When they played each other at the US Open in 2015 it was too fast for Mayer to cope, but strangely (almost certainly due to Fed not having played for a month) he took Federer all the way in even quicker conditions in Shanghai the season before.
Indeed, they’ve only ever clashed on outdoor hard and on clay in the form that Mayer is in right now this should be an entertaining encounter, assuming that Mayer doesn’t tighten up in only his second time in the last-16 of a major (first at the French Open).
Considering the stats that I mentioned above a tie break is quite likely, but I’d want a better price than 2.33, while over 31.5 games or Federer to win it 3-1 look perhaps the best options.
One issue that has cropped up now is Mayer admitting that he’s been struggling with injury lately: “I have been struggling for three days,” Mayer said. “I have had tests and I have a small tear in my left leg, so I will play [against Federer] with taping.”
That’s rather off-putting and I’ll only risk a small wager at a decent price in this one now.
Juan Ignacio Londero has had a breakthrough season in 2019, but it’s hard to see him taking down Rafael Nadal in what will be just his second career match versus a top-20 ranked opponent.
Londero was beaten in straight sets by Alexander Zverev in Munich a month or so ago on his first top-20 clash and while I’m still not convinced that Nadal is the player he was it’s hard to see more than a set at best for Londero here in a first meeting with Nadal on a big show court at a major.
All I can say if you’re thinking of betting on Benoit Paire versus Kei Nishikori is ‘good luck with that!’
Nishikori is coming off the back of a tough five setter against Laslo Djere the previous round in which he had to come back from a double break down in the final set to prevail in four-and-a-half hours.
Given Kei’s history with injuries who knows what shape he’ll be in for the Paire clash against an unpredictable and volatile opponent who himself has played a ton of tennis in the last fortnight.
Nishi leads the career series 6-2, but all three clashes at slams have been tight affairs and Paire is on top form at the moment and said after his epic win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert: “After the match against Pierre-Hugues I did not know what condition I was going to be in. It turns out that the next day, I already felt good physically. I did not feel too tired, not too dull. So I was pretty happy with that.”
I might be tempted with no tie breaks here, with two good returners involved and tanking of sets possible to conserve energy, but it’s no great value at 1.95.
Finally, perhaps the most entertaining affair could be found in the clash between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Stanislas Wawrinka, which is a bit of a pick ‘em and I’d have to give Wawrinka a big chance as slight underdog.
He’s been playing some very good stuff and I watched most of the Dimitrov match and the Bulgarian played some fine tennis – he was just a fraction behind Wawrinka, who was at his powerful best again.
I’m concerned as to whether Stan can keep this level up, but if he can he’s more than capable of emerging from this one with the win.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Federer to beat Mayer 3-1 at 3.70
