Debrief
At the time of writing, our 23-1 shot, Nicolas Jarry, is into the final of the Geneva Open without so much as dropping a set, so hopefully the Chilean can continue that form into Saturday’s title match.
Conditions and trends
We return to Paris for the clay major this fortnight and unlike some of the 250s, 500s and even (lately) Masters 1000s the chances of anyone unheralded breaking the stranglehold of the elite at a big price look a tad slim, but that doesn't mean it's not possible, with the world's best players frankly getting on a bit.
Only Stan Wawrinka in 2015 has been able to dent the domination of Rafael Nadal (mainly), Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer here since, well, since Nadal burst onto the scene in the early to mid-2000s.
It hasn’t produced many surprise finalists over the years either, with the last unseeded participant in the title match being Mariano Puerta (who was banned for doping both before and afterwards) in 2005.
Nadal has compiled an 86-2 win/loss record here over the years and is after a 12th title this year.
Playing conditions depend, as ever on clay, on the weather in Paris for the fortnight and at the moment the advance forecast suggests a cloudy opening week, with fair chance of rain on Tuesday, but in this part of the world in May we’re guessing.
Quarter one
Novak Djokovic must be delighted with his early draw, which sees a potential list of opponents that seem unlikely to seriously trouble the world number one.
Gilles Simon might use all his experience to create a challenge if he gets that far, but Borna Coric looks a good match-up for Djokovic, Fabio Fognini’s body is unlikely to allow him to go too far, and Alexander Zverev has been miles away from his best form lately.
It’s possible that Zverev could come back to form, of course, but given the German’s poor record in majors it appears unlikely and others that may end up facing Djokovic in the quarter finals.
Nick Kyrgios and Roberto Bautista Agut are the two most likely to take advantage, but neither would appear to present much of a threat to the Serb on slowish clay [Kyrgios has since withdrawn].
On his clay form this swing Fognini is perhaps the danger, but Djokovic has dealt with the Italian quite comfortably over the years, winning the last eight in a row since 2006.
Fabio has rarely been able to hold it together over the longer format, making only one quarter final here (and he withdrew from that) and at this stage of his career, with his injuries seemingly omnipresent his chances look slim.
I've watched a fair bit of Zverev this week in Geneva and he still doesn't look like he has the courage to hit through his forehand, pushing a lot from very deep in the court, and that isn't going to get him very far in a major.
Quarter two
At first glance this quarter looks to be between Dominic Thiem and Juan Martin Del Potro for the right to face most probably Djokovic in the semi finals and that seems likely to be the case.
Delpo looked in great form in Rome very early on in his comeback from injury, hitting the backhand as well as I’ve seen him do so for a very long time and on that evidence he stands a fine chance here.
Going toe-to-toe with Djokovic in slow conditions at night in a backhand-to-backhand battle and coming out at least even was a great sign for Delpo and with the forehand as good as ever my only worry with him is a lack of matches and regular injuries.
Nicolas Jarry represents a test in round one, but after that perhaps only Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov look like they could take advantage of a fatigued Delpo, but on his Rome form 66-1 looks big.
Delpo did make the semi finals last year (lost to Nadal) and he holds a 4-0 career series lead over Thiem, but they haven’t met on clay since Madrid in 2016.
Unlike the Djokovic quarter there are a few in this section that look like they could prevent a Thiem/Delpo quarter final and they are Khachanov, Pablo Cuevas, and Auger-Aliassime, but perhaps Kyle Edmund, Lucas Pouille or Martin Klizan are capable of a strong showing, too.
Thiem has obvious claims on his clay form in recent years and winning Indian Wells will have boosted his belief, too, but 6-1 is short if he’s expected to beat Cuevas, Delpo, Djokovic and then Nadal.
Quarter three
The top section of the bottom half of the draw is packed with possibilities and maybe this competitive quarter is the place to look for an each-way or quarter winner wager.
The obvious problem with the each-way is Rafael Nadal, who’s in Q4, but as well as high seeds Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roger Federer, the likes of Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka, Cristian Garin, Marco Cecchinato, Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini are in with chances.
Of these the 400-1 on Garin appeals (or the 25-1 to win the quarter), but he looked to be struggling with a knee injury in Geneva and that puts me off in a best-of-five set tournament.
Perhaps the longer format will allow Wawrinka to find his form again, as he looked great in Madrid until he ran into Nadal and didn’t really show up in that match.
Cilic looks some way off his best form right now, but Schwartzman is a live contender in this quarter after playing his best tennis for a long time in Rome last week.
The Italians, Berrettini and Cecchinato, are capable in this section of the draw, but no one really stands out as far as backing someone to win Q3 is concerned. It looks wide open.
Federer usually finds it too slow here and it’s a big ask for him at his age to win a tough section of a best-of-five clay tournament, as was hinted at when he pulled out of Rome after two matches in one day proved too much.
Quarter four
Frankly, Q4 looks like it could be a pretty comfortable one for Rafael Nadal, and even for a Nadal who’s looked his age this season on the clay at times.
His stats are still superb, despite some poor performances (the one against Fognini was dire) and the likes of David Goffin, Kei Nishikori, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikoloz Basilashvili and co. look seriously overmatched on clay against Rafa.
Even on their best form that group would struggle over the best-of-five against Nadal on clay at this venue, but none are near their best form and maybe only Daniil Medvedev and Guido Pella look likely to take sets off Nadal in this quarter.
Pella has been great for much of the clay swing and did well against Nadal in Monte-Carlo, while Medvedev had had a very good time on the red dirt up until he suffered a groin injury in Madrid.
That then led to a back problem in Rome and a withdrawal from Geneva, but in his favour is that he’s never faced Nadal and perhaps won’t be as afraid of him as most of the others in this field.
In the right conditions on Lenglen, rather than Chatrier, Medvedev could have a chance with his flat hitting, but I wouldn’t bet on it and Nadal and Djokovic both look to have pretty handy draws.
Conclusion
I imagine it’ll probably be another Nadal/Djokovic final and I’d be inclined to take the 3.50 on Djokovic rather than the 1.95 on Nadal, with the Serb (if he has the energy, which he clearly didn’t in Rome) more than capable of beating this 2019 version of Nadal on clay, but instead of that I’ll take a chance on Delpo each-way at 66s.
Best Bet
1 point each-way Del Potro at 67.0
