The expected wind played havoc at the French Open on Friday, with gale force winds buffeting the players during both semi finals.
And the sheer strength of the gusts gave Roger Federer very limited opportunities to apply any sort of real pressure to Rafael Nadal and take the set that we needed from him.
Fed had his chances in set two when he was a break up, but the key moment came with the Swiss serving at *4-4 when Fed led 40-0, but ended up getting broken and with it went our chance of getting the 3-1 win for Nadal.
In the second semi final I said that Novak Djokovic was a tad short at 1.50 against Dominic Thiem and that the way to go was to side with a long match and those that took the over 38.5 total games would have won, but my idea of a long first set didn’t work out.
Typically, three of the next four sets went past 10.5 games, but as I alluded to in my preview, the wind didn’t help Djokovic again and he was beaten 7-5 in the fifth.
Dominic Thiem vs Rafael Nadal
So, Thiem became the first underdog winner of a French Open semi final since Roger Federer beat Djokovic in 2011 and now he must become the first man to beat Djokovic and Nadal back-to-back at a major (Wawrinka beat them both at the 2014 Australian Open, but not back-to-back) if he wants to win La Coupe des Mousquetaires.
Not only that, but he must do it on more or less a full day’s less rest than Nadal, who finished his semi final against Roger Federer on Friday, while Thiem not only had to go five sets with Djokovic, but over two days, thanks to the Paris weather.
Therefore, with fitness likely to be in Nadal’s favour as well as the conditions on his ‘home’ court and the best-of-five set format it’s no surprise to see Nadal put in at even shorter at 1.23 than he was against Thiem in Barcelona in April.
Given that Thiem won that match on the Pista Rafael Nadal in front of Rafa’s home fans in Spain – and in straight sets, too – you’d be forgiven for thinking this price on Nadal is a tad short, but there’s fatigue and the Paris head-to-head built in here.
Thiem is yet to win a set or even take Nadal past 10 games in a set in any of the nine they’ve contested here at the French Open, where the Spaniard has held serve a whopping 20% more often than Thiem.
But if we look at their last three matches against each other on clay it’s Thiem that’s held serve more often at 79.4% compared to Nadal’s 76.5% and I think that the experience of having already faced Nadal in a final here (last year) will definitely help Thiem.
Having seen it all before in a major final is, for me, a big difference than going into your first slam final when it’s all brand new and I’d expect a closer match than last year’s final at least.
Thiem’s extra workload to get here and likely fatigue after that short recovery time won’t help him, but we’ll see on Sunday if Nadal is still the defensive force he once was on clay, because he hasn’t really been tested this fortnight yet.
David Goffin took a set from Nadal, but Kei Nishikori was barely even half fit and Federer had to play in a virtual wind tunnel, so it’s shame that we maybe won’t see Thiem at his fittest on Sunday.
It’s definitely far tougher on Chatrier over the longer format for anyone to take three sets off Nadal and Thiem will most likely come up short in that regard, but I’d expect him to win a set this time at least and over 36.5 games looks a fair shout at 1.96.
Last year’s opening set in the final was tight until 5-4 when Thiem played a poor game to lose it and surely he’ll be giving it everything in set one again, as it’s hard to see Thiem coming back from a set down to win, so either the 3.0 about Thiem taking it or the 3.25 about over 10.5 games both look decent value options.
I expect Nadal will probably find a way on Chatrier again, but he could be made to work harder than usual by Thiem, whose wins over Nadal on this surface and the victory over Djokovic, plus the fact that he’s now a Masters 1000 winner, should mean his challenge is stronger this year than last.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 10.5 games in set one at 3.25
0.5 points win over 36.5 games at 1.96
