Eugenie Bouchard – Shuai Peng (Tuesday 03.00)
More often than not it can be a rather dangerous mission to venture into backing Bouchard and most times I would refrain from doing just that. However, this tournament does look like one to do it though, at least at this stage.
She has started the year well, reaching the quarterfinal in Auckland and holding match point against eventual champion Julia Goerges.
Since 2014 she has actually never lost in the 1st round so even on the downward spiral that has been her career for most parts since that amazing 2014, she has still managed to show up in Melbourne and delivered something.
Add that to the fact that she has played Peng twice before and won them both. Both on hard courts, both in straight sets, and one here in Melbourne in 2017.
32-year-old Peng is ranked 50 places below Bouchard and on her way back from an injury. Last year she lost to number 521 in the world, Kostuyk in the 1st round here. I give the Canadian my vote.
1 point Bouchard to beat Peng at 1.74
CHAMPION!
It’s a FIRST doubles title for Genie Bouchard at the #ASBClassic! She and partner Sofia Kenin defeat Hourigan/Townsend 1-6, 6-1, [10-7].
Congratulations @geniebouchard & @SonyaKenin! pic.twitter.com/9Fg0aeyZYc
— Tennis Canada (@TennisCanada) January 6, 2019
Venus Williams – M. Buzarnescu (Tuesday 03.15)
Have a look at Venus Williams’ results at the Australian Open since 2013:
- 3rd round
- 1st round
- Quarterfinal
- 1st round
- Final
- 1st round
So every second year a loss in the first match and every second year one better than the last time. So going by that she will win in Melbourne this year!
Most likely not but I do believe she has enough to beat Buzarnescu. The Romanian had a great season in 2018, but it ended in August with a nasty injury and she has so far found it hard to retain her form.
She comes here with 6 defeats on the bounce and whereas she had a good French Open and Wimbledon last year, she lost in the 1st round in Australia and she has never passed the 1st round here.
Venus has only played one tournament since the US Open, but that was in the first week of this year and the form was good enough to beat a player like Azarenka.
I believe she has too much for Buzarnescu with the form of the latter being as it is.
2 points Venus Williams to beat Buzarnescu at 1.55
Sam Stosur – D. Yastremska (Tuesday 04.30)
Stosur is very far from the player she was when she won the US Open and she enters the Australian Open 2019 with eight defeats from her last nine matches. However: she has played three matches this season and every match went to three sets. Her one win came against Cibulkova so on her day she is still capable of grinding out a result.
I have no doubt Yastremska is the right favourite here but perhaps a little too big a favourite? She is only 18, only playing her 4th Major and has yet to win a match in the main round of a Major.
In both 2017 and 2018, Stosur lost in the 1st round here but she did manage to win a set on the way. At these prices I find her decent value to come up with a fight. Either going for Stosur to win a set at 1.75, the match going over 2.5 sets at 2.55 or Yastremska to win 2-1 at 4.00.
1 point over 2.5 sets Stosur v. Yastremska at 2.55
Fizzing forehand, @D_Yastremska !@HobartTennis pic.twitter.com/YKXgDH8NnX
— WTA (@WTA) January 10, 2019
Simona Halep – Kaia Kanepi (Tuesday 08.00)
Halep reached the final here in Melbourne last year with only a few tight points separating her from the title, and she arrives in Melbourne as the world number 1. She also arrives though on a rather poor run of results with no less than five defeats on the trot.
One has to search long for a similarly poor run from the Romanian, but perhaps she can take some solace from the fact that only one of those defeats was this year while the rest stems from the ending of last season. Nevertheless, defeats in her last five matches can play a trick in the back of the mind of even a number one.
In this situation, she could have done with a far less dangerous opponent than Kanepi. Of all the unseeded players Halep could have played Kanepi ranks as one of the worst.
Kanepi has not played a match since reaching the 4th round of the US Open in September but she is one those rare players who can come from out of the blue and then turn in a result.
Speaking of US Open: who did Kanepi beat in the 1st round back then? Halep, in two straight sets. They have one previous encounter, back in 2014 on hard courts on Doha where Halep eventually took the win in a deciding set tie break.
Last year Kanepi took down a seeded player, Cibulkova in round 1 in Melbourne by 6-2 6-2. Halep is a harder opponent but Kanepi knows she has what it takes to push Halep all the way. Take Kanepi on either +4.5 games or to win a set. The price is close to identical.
1 point Kanepi to beat Halep with +4.5 games at 1.86
Best bets:
1 point Bouchard to beat Peng at 1.74
2 points Venus Williams to beat Buzarnescu at 1.55
1 point Kanepi to beat Halep with +4.5 games at 1.86
1 point over 2.5 sets Stosur v. Yastremska at 2.55
