Naomi Osaka – Elina Svitolina (Wednesday 00.00)
In the third round I bet on Osaka to lose a set. That happened. In the fourth round I bet she lost outright. That did not happen – but she did lose the first set again. My reasoning was that if Sevastova could ”steal” a set, the match was there for the taking as Osaka rarely plays two three-setters in a row. In 2017 it happened only once!
Osaka managed to turn it around again, but she had to dig deep and there is a limit to how many times one can do that during a tournament. Physically and mentally it takes its toll. We can certainly build a case for Svitolina being able to also take a set off Osaka, not least because the Ukranian is showing good form, taking down Keys in three set in the fourth round.
She has played Osaka five times and leads 3-2. In four of those matches she won at least one set. She won both meetings in 2018, both on outdoors hard court and by comfortable 6-2 6-4 and 6-4 6-2. If she takes a set again, Osaka will once again have to go through three sets to win and I don’t think she will have the resources to do that.
Either that…or Osaka will hammer Svitolina in straight sets because she has found her groove… but I am willing to take that risk.
There's a win and then there's a Serena Win™
Seven-time #AusOpen champion Serena Williams sent off world No. 1 Simona Halep in 6-1 4-6 6-4 classic: https://t.co/Ee56hFdX1t#SleepIsForTheWeak pic.twitter.com/WFQHZhyWvu
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 21, 2019
Serena Williams – Karolina Pliskova (Wednesday 02.00)
It was a monster battle for Serena Williams against Simona Halep. She took the first set in awesome style in less than 20 minutes only for Halep to claw her way back and win the second. Halep reached a point during the third where she was the favourite in the betting markets – it's not as easy as it looks, even for Serena, to then come back and control the match.
But she did and it speaks volumes for her performance. It will only have improved her confidence even more that she now knows she is once again able to win matches like this. However, I still think Pliskova can be a dangerous opponent.
She hammered Muguruza once again and stated afterwards she feels absolutely brilliant. The Czech comes with a title to her name this year but said to Eurosport that “even though I have played a lot of matches aldredy I feel great physically”. They have played three times before with Serena leading 2-1. All matches on outdoor hard courts in the US and all of them were decided in three sets and all of them under 22 games.
Perhaps that is the best way to go here with under 21.5 games paying odds 1.84, but I have to admit I will take a pass on this match. I think Serena will win but won’t be surprised if Pliskova prevails.
Best bet: 2 points Svitolina to beat Osaka at 2.17
