The expected deluge washed out many of the matches on the outside courts in Melbourne on Monday, so we’re still waiting for Hubert Hurkacz and Dennis Novak to begin their encounter and a whopping 51 men’s singles matches are now scheduled for day two.
In hindsight I plumped for the wrong match in the end when I tried the tie break played in Roger Federer’s clash with Steve Johnson, which proved simple for the Swiss, while Novak Djokovic did play a breaker and went past the overs against Jan-Lennard Struff.
Elsewhere, anyone who took Marton Fucsovics and Sam Querrey from my list would have found nice underdog winners, while a few more from that list were delayed until day two.
We’re set for a better day weather-wise on Tuesday, with a pleasant day of 21C with not a great deal of wind in prospect.
Ilya Ivashka vs Kevin Anderson
Anderson’s record in this tournament isn’t anywhere near as good as at the other hard court major in New York, with the big South African having lost four of his last five matches here and holding a narrow 12-11 winning record in all main draw matches here.
On top of that Anderson has barely played competitively since last summer due to an elbow injury and while he did okay at the ATP Cup on his comeback he’s still well short of matches at the moment.
Anderson, similarly to John Isner, usually takes a bit more time to find his best rhythm and his record here in Melbourne is littered with long battles where he’s had to go four and five sets in the early rounds.
Indeed, of his 12 match wins here only four have been completed in fewer than 35.5 games and of the 23 matches he’s played in all 14 have gone past 35.5 games (four of the ones that didn’t were losses to Berdych and Nadal).
On his best form Ilya Ivashka is very much capable of extending that run of long matches for Anderson after the Belarusian came through qualifying nicely, beating decent opposition in Liam Broady (who was affected by the conditions), Denis Kudla and Zhe Li.
Ivashka was out for several months last season with a knee injury, which set him back somewhat, but he’s played the last four months of 2019 and appeared to be in decent form in qualies.
Given that Anderson has played only seven competitive sets of tennis since last July he’d be delighted to get through this one in straight sets and I can’t see that happening.
Anderson’s win over Ivashka in Toronto in the summer of 2018 came the very next tournament after Anderson had made the Wimbledon final and Anderson should have made the final in Canada that week (blowing match point in the semis), so he was in way better touch then than he is now.
The over 35.5 games or perhaps the 3-1 to Anderson look the wagers of interest here.
Taylor Fritz vs Tallon Griekspoor
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Griekspoor make a real match of it against Fritz, who hasn’t started the season very well and hasn’t really found his form since losing the Los Cabos final last August.
We know that Griekspoor has a lot of talent and he showed it again when he should have beaten Andy Murray in Davis Cup at the end of last season, having previously defeated Karen Khachanov and Stan Wawrinka at home in Rotterdam.
This will be his slam debut and perhaps nerves will play a part, but he qualified nicely here in Melbourne without dropping a set and holding serve 94% of the time and on his best form he’s got every chance of doing something against Fritz.
The American won just one match in the ATP Cup (against 329-ranked Viktor Durasovic), was eased aside by Alexander Bublik in Adelaide, and is 4-14 win/loss in his last 15 main level matches.
In his last 10 main tour matches (all rounds) he’s broken serve just 11.4% of the time, while Griekspoor has held serve 84.4% of the time in his last 10 main tour matches (all rounds), while of Fritz’s 21 completed slam matches only four have been won in straight sets.
So, over 35.5 games is again a possibility here at 1.85.
Other underdogs in with chances on Tuesday include: Andreas Seppi, Christopher Eubanks, Alexei Popyrin and Egor Gerasimov, while I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nick Kyrgios and Daniil Medvedev have to work hard, too.
Seppi was rather unlucky in Auckland in that the rain made him play two matches in a day (the first one a three-setter), but he hasn’t lost in R1 of this tournament since Richard Gasquet (a 1.36 favourite that day) beat him back in 2012.
He’s made R4 four times in the last seven years here and if he’s fit he won’t be too worried by what Miomir Kecmanovic has to offer in what will be a battle of ball striking on the day.
Kecmanovic was beaten as a 1.13 favourite by Seppi’s fellow Italian veteran Paulo Lorenzi in his last slam appearance and his only wins so far at this level have come over Denis Kudla (on clay), Roberto Carballes Baena (on grass) and Laslo Djere (on hard).
Kecmanovic is improving and probably the right favourite, but 1.45 looks short to me given Seppi’s record in Melbourne.
Alexei Popyrin also went well in Melbourne last year, making the third round and almost the fourth (lost in five sets to Pouille) and then did well at Wimbledon (beat Carreno Busta and was a set up on Medvedev) and the US Open (beating Mikhail Kukushkin and losing a tight one to Matteo Berrettini in four).
Now he’s back at his home major and faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose fitness on any given week is a bit of a mystery at this very late stage of a career that’s been plagued by back problems in recent times.
Tsonga didn’t seem able to really compete as he’d have liked against Kecmanovic in Doha and I’m not so sure that his body will let him compete as well as he used to over five sets anymore.
Daniil Medvedev is all the rage these days and perhaps rightly so, but a round one clash at a major against Frances Tiafoe (even an out of form Tiafoe) is no gimme.
Tiafoe had a disappointing season for the most part last year, but he made the quarter finals here in Melbourne (lost to Nadal), beating Anderson, Dimitrov and Seppi, and when he has lost in majors lately it’s been in a decider.
Alexander Zverev beat him in five in New York, after Tiafoe also lost in five against Fognini at Wimbledon and Krajinovic at the French and also to Khachanov at Wimbledon 2018 and to Federer at the 2017 US Open.
In his last 14 slam matches only Nadal has beaten Tiafoe in straight sets and the American was injured (foot) when he faced Medvedev in Washington DC last summer.
It does look a tough match-up for Tiafoe, with Medvedev’s flat ball putting a lot of pressure often onto the shaky Tiafoe forehand, but over games is still an option for me here.
Casper Ruud looks rather short to me at 1.37 against Egor Gerasimov and if this is played in quick conditions it looks a poor price on Ruud, who likes too much time on the ball on a pacy hard court.
He’s shown improvement at the start of this year, but he still likes to run around his backhand, so if someone with power, like a Gerasimov, can pepper that side they can have success.
The Belarusian’s last 10 main level main level matches have seen him hold serve 86% of the time – and that’s against opponents such as Daniil Medvedev, Matteo Berrettini, Diego Schwartzman and Andrey Rublev.
In Ruud’s last 10 matches at main level he’s managed to break serve just 13.6% of the time, so the young Norwegian will do well to cover a +4.5 game handicap here.
What slightly worries me about this one now is the late match time in the evening when it’s likely to be a bit slower, which should help Ruud.
I’d have liked a sunnier day for Christopher Eubanks as well after he qualified nicely and has a shot against the erratic Peter Gojowczyk, but perhaps slower conditions at night may help Lorenzo Sonego against Nick Kyrgios.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see NK challenged in that one, given NK’s often weak return game and an opponent with a big serve.
Best Bets
0.5 points win over 35.5 games in Anderson/Ivashka at 1.94
0.5 points win over 35.5 games in Fritz/Griekspoor at 1.85
