Naomi Osaka – Su-Wei Hsieh (Saturday 00.00)
Should one take a chance on the 3.75 on Hsieh or settle for her ‘just’ winning a set? No matter what I believe she can cause some problems for Osaka.
She has a very peculiar style of play that most opponents often find troublesome to cope with. She chips, she slices from both forehand and backhand and she plays with a lot of angles.
It often comes as a bit of a surprise when she does well with her style, but it works for her. She reached the fourth round of both Australian Open and Wimbledon last year.
In Melbourne, she took down third seed Muguruza while beating first seed Halep at Wimbledon. She had an early exit at the US Open but finished 2018 really strong, winning a title and reaching two other semi-finals before opening 2019 with a semi-final.
Of her last 12 encounters with the current top 10-players, seven went to three sets, among those her only meeting so far with Osaka, which the latter won eventually.
A set could be on the cards for Hsieh.
1 point Hsieh on +1.5 sets against Osaka at 2.00
T. Bacsinszky – G. Muguruza (Saturday 08.00)
Bacsinszky was also part of my bets two days ago and she happily obliged. Whether she can deliver here remains to be seen, but at these odds under these circumstances it is certainly worth taking a punt.
As I said on Thursday she has been out with an injury, but she is beginning to look good and just to repeat myself: she reached a final in September last year, a semi-final in October before winning a title in November.
She opened the first round by shipping out 10th seed Kasatkina, losing only three games on the way. Why not 18th seed Muguruza as well then? The Spaniard leads their head-to-head 4-1, but it was Bacsinszky who won the most recent encounter 6-1 6-3 on clay. In Madrid in front of Muguruza’s home crowd.
The reason this price is tempting, though, is not only the fact that Bacsinszky is playing well. A big reason is also Muguruza’s latest match. Not only did it last two hours and 42 minutes. It finished 12 minutes past three in the morning Melbourne-time!
No doubt Muguruza lost a whole night’s sleep and you don’t necessarily recover from that just because you have had one day off.
This looks like a huge chance for Bacsinszky.
3 points Bacsinszky to beat Muguruza at 2.90
Simona Halep – Venus Williams (Saturday 08.00)
Both players have gone through three-set matches in both rounds, but in the heat that Melbourne often dishes out, there has to be a difference between being 27 and 38 years old.
We know that Halep is usually fit as a fiddle, and it is not that Venus in un-fit, she is just 11 years older. She will have to work hard to take down Halep.
Apart from that, it seems Venus can’t quite cut against the best in the game anymore.
Since the US Open 2017 she has played nine matches against the current top 10-players. She lost eight of those. The latest against…Simona Halep on hard court in Montreal last year, where the Romanian won 6-2 6-2.
Of the last seven defeats, six were lost by at least four games. Because of that I will not only side with Halep, I am also betting she can win by at least four games.
2 points Halep -3.5 games to beat Venus at 1.76
Best bets:
1 point Hsieh on +1.5 sets against Osaka at 2.00
3 points Bacsinszky to beat Muguruza at 2.90
2 points Halep -3.5 games to beat Venus at 1.76
