Debrief
We’re in profit for the season so far after two outright finalists in the opening two weeks, but with both 14-1 Daniil Medvedev and 25-1 Cam Norrie losing in finals it’s been a little bit frustrating, although with Norrie being favourite from 25-1 in Auckland there was plenty of scope for hedging.
Conditions
We’re back at Melbourne Park for the first major of the year and they play here on a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s usually on the quicker side and ranks highly in my list of tie break matches per tournament (on average 48% of matches here in the last nine years have featured at least one breaker).
That may increase this year, with the advent of tie break final sets, but another factor to consider is that they’re using Dunlop balls this year, which some players have said “fluff up” and can be hard to hit winners with when they get older.
More of a concern than any of that for me is the lack of underdog winners that this event produces: it ranks third worst (at 21%) in terms of the amount of underdogs that win here and after round three that amount reduces to a trickle.
So, despite it’s former reputation as an event of shocks and surprises it produces few in reality and the only player that’s won here not named Federer, Djokovic or Nadal in 13 years was Stan Wawrinka (who we backed at a big price in 2014).
Other than that it’s slim pickings and I’m going to be rather circumspect with my bets and stakes this fortnight.
Quarter one
Let’s have a look at the draw then and I’ll be brief about Q1 as it’s tough to envisage Novak Djokovic not winning it.
Djokovic has been beaten before the quarter finals in both of his last two appearances here, but it’s hard to see it happening again unless the winner of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga/Martin Klizan has an unplayable day when one faces the Serb.
That seems unlikely with this 2019 version of Tsonga and surely Klizan would find a way to lose even if he got himself close to winning and that would leave us relying on the winner of the David Goffin/Daniil Medvedev mini-section to take down the tournament favourite.
Goffin has struggled in the heat here over the years and it is set to be hot on Monday and Tuesday in Melbourne, plus he usually takes a while to find his form after a lay off, so Goffin looks to me a long shot in this section.
Medvedev is the interesting one, with his flat hitting capable of causing at least some problems for Djokovic if they met in round four and he could possibly emulate Denis Istomin’s win over the Serb of 2017, but I’m not going to bet on it.
Nobody in the adjacent section looks capable of providing the upset, with Kei Nishikori 2-17 versus Djokovic in his career and probably not the player he was a few years ago after wrist surgery.
So, it’s Djokovic for me in this section of the draw.
Quarter two
Q2 is an interesting one, as I’m interested in possibly taking on Alexander Zverev, whose failures in majors have shown no signs of halting, plus he’s said to be struggling with a hamstring injury.
The German also reportedly had to halt a practice match in Melbourne with a foot or heel problem and given that he’s yet to prove by any means that he can last the course at a major I’m not sold on his chances.
Of those that could stop Zverev from making week two in a major again perhaps Gilles Simon could on a good week, but he usually finds it too much of a physical test here in the heat with his play style and hasn’t been past round four since 2009.
Jeremy Chardy has gone well in Australia in the past and on his day is capable of the upset, but I’m not backing Chardy and Jack Sock is another who usually struggles in the heat.
In the next section, Hyeon Chung, last year’s semi finalist, looks hopelessly out of form and Stan Wawrinka, Ernests Gulbis, Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic are all drawn together and only one of that quartet will make round three.
Kyrgios has got what he deserved for his childish “couldn’t care less” comments about his ranking slipping and has been handed Raonic in round one, which is a test the Aussie probably won’t pass in his current frame of mind.
Wawrinka is perhaps the most likely to upset Zverev, but while Stan still looks capable of hitting the heights I’m not at all convinced that he can string those sorts of performances together any more to make the latter stages of a major.
The adjacent section looks very open, with Borna Coric holding a very poor record in Australia and Dominic Thiem finding the conditions too fast and also he gets nosebleeds here in the dry heat.
Lucas Pouille is another who’s struggled in Australia (lost nine of his last 10 matches at all levels) and he’s coming to terms with a new coaching set-up with Amelie Mauresmo, too.
As tempting as it is to take Zverev on no single player stands out for me to do it with in Q2.
Quarter three
Q3 is really interesting if you’re of a mind to take on the 37-year-old Roger Federer, which is certainly a possibility, given the Swiss’s age and recalling how he struggled in the heat at the US Open.
He usually gets nice match times and it’s a drier heat here, less humid, but I’m still tempted to take him on in his 38th year.
The main candidates to upset Federer before the semi finals are: Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Karen Khachanov Stefanos Tsitsipas, and perhaps Gael Monfils and Nikoloz Basilashvili.
Given that last year’s semi finalists were Kyle Edmund and Hyeon Chung at big prices to win their quarters and his huge improvement of late I’m tempted into a small interest on Basilashvili.
His early draw looks kind and the high seed in his section, Tsitsipas, is another that’s really struggled in the heat so far in his career, so I’m not at all convinced about the Greek’s chances this fortnight.
Basilashvili’s improvement has been rapid and much of it has been on the mental side, as he used to go away mentally far too easily, but Jan De Witt has turned him into a top-20 player and now he doesn’t look fazed against the elite.
Indeed, he won only six points fewer than Djokovic when they clashed in Doha recently in a final set defeat and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares this fortnight.
It’s a big long shot but with doubts (again) over the fitness of Monfils and heat resistance of Tsitsipas I like the price of 100-1 on Basil.
Only one of Cilic, Bautista Agut, Khachanov, Andy Murray, Bernard Tomic, or Fernando Verdasco can make the quarter finals and of these I’m tempted by RBA.
He looked in fine form in Doha after a difficult year on and off the court in 2018 and it’s hard to see Murray beating him over five sets in what may turn out to be the Brit’s last career match.
The Spaniard has also beaten Karen Khachanov on quick surfaces and with Cilic a tad rusty after no competitive action since the Davis Cup final and suffering with a knee problem (and with Tomic to face in round one) RBA looks a fair option in Q3.
Quarter four
I’m completely unconvinced about Rafael Nadal’s fitness and he can be taken on in Q4 with Kevin Anderson or Tomas Berdych.
The Spaniard hasn’t hit a ball competitively since the US Open and even when he fit he usually finds the quick conditions here a big challenge, with no title since way back in 2009.
Rafa can’t complain about his draw at all, with Alex De Minaur a possible threat, but that doesn’t look a favourable match-up for the young Aussie, who will be tired after a long week in Sydney that didn’t finish until Saturday night.
Instead, it could be possible that a resurgent Tomas Berdych could be the man to take down Nadal, as he did here in Melbourne in 2015, with the Czech playing pain-free this season so far after a long time off the circuit die to back problems.
Berdych faces last year’s semi finalist Kyle Edmund though in round one and that’s a tough one to call, as Edmund has been injured too, playing only one match in 2019 so far due to a knee injury.
Given that Berdych is favourite for that match it indicates that Edmund isn’t fit and I’m happy to have half a point on the Berdman at 16-1 to win this section (he’s also 12-0 head-to-head against Anderson, although they haven’t clashed since 2014).
The Czech was similarly unfancied last season coming to Melbourne, having also ended the previous season early and he hadn’t won a match for more than three months, but he played superbly well until losing to Federer in the quarters.
Anderson is the obvious choice to win the quarter given his form over the last year or so and he’ll have taken some confidence from beating Nadal in Abu Dhabi at the start of this year, even if that event is an exhibition.
Anderson has held serve 91.1% of the time in his last 50 matches and broken 16.7% of the time, for a combined total of 107.8, which is not elite level, but handy enough and he has the knowledge that he can go deep in majors these days.
Grigor Dimitrov is an interesting contender, given his decent record at this tournament, but 7-1 about him winning the quarter seems pretty short considering his weak form over the last season.
John Isner has never been the last 16 in Melbourne and has started recent seasons slowly, so I’ll overlook him and the value, if there is any, is on Berdych for me in Q4.
Conclusion
I suspect it’ll be business as usual for Djokovic as far as winning the title is concerned, but the huge price on Basilashvili to cause a shock in Q3 and a fair price on Berdych to do something similar in Q4 look the best outright options.
Best Bets
0.5 points win Berdych to win quarter four at 17.0
0.5 points win Basilashvili to win quarter three at 101.0
