Debrief

There’s something about these hard court Masters 1000s that seems to be to my liking lately, with Dominic Thiem’s 80-1 success at Indian Wells adding to 16-1 Juan Martin Del Potro (Indian Wells 2018), 100-1 John Isner (Miami 2018) and 100-1 each-way Borna Coric (Shanghai 2018) as notable recent outright wins for this column.

It was hard to be overly bullish about Thiem’s chances given a lack of recent form, but conditions suit his game at Indian Wells and while we needed help from an unlikely source (Philipp Kohlschreiber) in getting rid of Novak Djokovic, Thiem took his chance well.

Conditions and trends

The Miami Open will be played at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens for the first time this year after 30 years at Crandon Park, Key Biscayne and obviously the playing conditions are as yet unknown.

They play on a Laykold surface, which is the same as at Crandon Park (assuming that the ATP’s info is up to date) and that being the case it was on the slow side, hard to hit winners on and much slower through the air than at Indian Wells.

High humidity is often an issue in Miami, as is the wind.

Number one seeds have a weak record at the Miami of late, with Novak Djokovic (2015/16) being the only man to have won the tournament as top seed since Roger Federer did it back in 2006.

Federer did the Indian Wells/Miami double in 2017, while Djokovic did it in 2014, 2015 and 2016, but it’s not quite as ‘major winner dominated’ as Indian Wells, with four finalists in the last six years being non-major winners (so far in their careers).

Isner and Nikolay Davydenko are the only non-major winners to have landed the title this century, but there’s been no shortage of good-priced runners up throughout the history of the Miami Open.
 

Draw and form – quarter one

Could we be in a similar situation in Miami as we were in Indian Wells, whereby Novak Djokovic loses early on and opens up the draw completely?

Ahead of Indian Wells I suggested that may be the case and that Nick Kyrgios might be the man to do it, but it turned out to be Kohlschreiber, who was 1-12 win/loss in sets against the Serb on hard courts prior to last week.

On that basis an opening match against Tomas Berdych could prove tricky for Djokovic (assuming that Berdych beats Bernard Tomic in round one), with the Serb lacking matches at the moment.

Berdych probably won’t go into that match thinking: ‘nobody beats Tomas Berdych 20 times in a row on a hard court’ and it’s probably too much a case of wishful thinking that Djokovic will lose early on again.

If he does then there are some huge prices around on perfectly capable players making the final and that includes 200-1 about Roberto Bautista Agut, 400-1 Fabio Fognini, and 100-1 each about Lucas Pouille and Kyle Edmund.

Big serving pair John Isner and Milos Raonic will probably have their supporters as well, but each are priced up at 20-1, which looks rather short given that they’re in a quarter with Djokovic.

Fognini hasn’t been playing well at all lately, but 400-1 is tempting in slow conditions, with the Italian bound to come good at some point. He’s a former semi finalist here (as recently as 2017) and if we are having a punt on Novak losing again Fog looks the one at the prices.
 

Draw and form – quarter two

This quarter looks like it may hold more realistic prospects, with Nikoloz Basilashvili and Nick Kyrgios both holding some appeal at the prices.

Basil is already a winner on clay and hard at ATP 500 level and while I didn’t feel that Dubai and Indian Wells suited his game particularly there’s a chance that he could prosper in Miami.

The powerful Georgian should be able to hit through these slow courts and if he finds his best form and keeps the errors to a minimum a price of 300-1 looks decent in a section of the draw where his high-seeded opponent may well be unfit.

That man is Gael Monfils, who withdrew from his slated quarter final against Dominic Thiem citing an Achilles heel injury and that’s not likely to be solved in a matter of days I wouldn’t have thought.

Dominic Thiem may well be physically and mentally exhausted after Indian Wells, while Borna Coric looks bereft of confidence right now and doesn’t seem to have overcome his late finish to last season as yet.

It’s surely too slow for Gilles Simon to be effective here, which leaves us with Kyrgios and Nishikori.

The Japanese star, who trains in this part of the world, has a solid record in Miami, but his current form is poor, with two losses to Hubert Hurcakz and a very tight final set win (should have lost) against Adrian Mannarino.

I don’t think we can ignore that and despite his 4-0 head-to-head lead over Kyrgios I couldn’t back Nishikori at his current level and the unpredictable Aussie actually makes more appeal at 33-1.

Kyrgios is 10-3 win/loss in Miami and the big-time atmosphere of the Hard Rock Stadium may well also tickle Kyrgios’ fancy, plus he has the power to hit through these courts, like Basilashvili.

And the Aussie has won both matches in his career against Djokovic, so I suspect a semi final at this stadium against (potentially) Djokovic would suit him perfectly.

Draw and form – quarter three

 
Here, I like the chances of Karen Khachanov to take advantage of a possible sub-par showing from Roger Federer, who has only made one Miami final since 2006.

The Swiss veteran was beaten by Thanasi Kokkinakis here a year ago after losing in the Indian Wells final and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were to be defeated by one of Stan Wawrinka, Daniil Medvedev or maybe even Diego Schwartzman this time around.

He did the ‘Sunshine Double’ in 2017, but that was some achievement and to make back-to-back finals again at 37 years of age would be incredible.

While I don’t fancy backing Fed this week I’m not sold on the outright chances of Wawrinka or Medvedev either, with Stan having a poor record in Miami (never made the last eight) and Medvedev probably not suited by the slow conditions or the high humidity.

Khachanov, having gone back to his old Wilson racquet in Indian Wells, looked better than he has lately at Indian Wells and his opposition in Q3 includes injured duo Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov – neither of whom have played since Melbourne.

Khachanov, like Kyrgios and Basil, has the power to go well here, but 25-1 is a tad short for my liking for an outright wager on the Russian.
 

Draw and form – quarter four

I’m going to put my trust in Alexander Zverev this week and assuming that his illness-related performance last week at Indian Wells in conditions that have yet to be seen to fit with his game will be much improved in Miami.

Last year’s finalist has a very good record here (10-4 win/loss and 90% holds of serve) and arguably the best of the draw, with Stefanos Tsitsipas perhaps the only danger if the German finds his best form.

I’m not convinced about Tsitsipas in hot conditions combined with high humidity just yet and the rest of this quarter looks weak, with Marin Cilic (like Coric) struggling to get his 2019 season going.

Clic also has a weak record in Miami, is coming back from a knee injury and has lost his last five matches against Zverev, so he’s readily overlooked for me, while Denis Shapovalov is still too inconsistent to be a bet to win a M1000 event (yet to make a main level final).

David Goffin and Frances Tiafoe are both struggling for form and this quarter looks a good one for Zverev, who also has wins against Federer to his name (should the Swiss veteran make the semis, which is questionable).

The price on Zverev isn’t great, but I’m happy to take him against the field this week in Miami.

 

Conclusion

 

A few small bets at tempting prices in the top half of the draw in case of another early exit for Djokovic, then, and the main wagers are a chancy one on Kyrgios in Q1 and on Zverev in the bottom half.

 

Best Bets

 

2 points win Zverev to win Miami at 10.0
1 point win Kyrgios at 34.0 
0.5 points each-way Fognini at 401.0
0.5 points each-way Basilashvili at 301.0