It’s been a very unusual start to this year’s Tour Finals in the sense that only once in the last seven years at the O2 has there been more than four underdog winners (that was last year’s five) and we had three in the first two days in 2019’s tournament.
That’s the same amount as in the whole of the Tour Finals of 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016, so it’s been a departure from previous years so far this time around.
Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev were both upset as favourites of around the 1.40 mark on Monday and the pair now meet on Wednesday in what’s essentially a do or die encounter.
That’s the first match of the day on Wednesday at (not before) 14:00 UK time and that will be followed at (not before) 20:00 UK time by Stefanos Tsitsipas taking on Alexander Zverev.
I haven’t seen any official figures, but the conditions here at the O2 this week seem to be on the quicker side, with Matteo Berrettini having this to say on the subject:
“The court is very fast. Good for my service, bad for the rallies, because I don't have the time to rotate the ball.” The Italian added that the ball “doesn't bounce too much".
So, not ideal conditions at all for Nadal, whose record at this tournament now after losing to Zverev on Monday, is 16-14 win/loss and with a hold/break total of less than 100 (99.1).
That shows how poorly suited Nadal is to these conditions and I said in my preview of Nadal/Zverev that is was really tough to bet on because of Nadal’s fitness issues and Zverev’s inconsistent form.
I also mentioned that Zverev may become inspired by a return to the O2, where he won the title last year and he said after the Nadal win: “Just coming back to practice here, Thursday, Friday, was amazing. Just being out here, being in the stadium, was something that I wanted to do again this year. It was a huge goal of mine, especially the way the season went.”
For Nadal it was a pretty poor performance, but in some ways not massively different to the stats he’s produced throughout his career at the O2.
All-time here Nadal has won just 66.8% of his first serve points (against Zverev it was 62%) and while the abdominal injury probably played a part in his lack of zip on serve he’s at a distinct disadvantage in these conditions with his style of play.
Hence why he’s always said the end-of-year tournament should be played on different surfaces and why I was happy to take him on as favourite to win the group – it just looks like I may have picked the wrong one to oppose him with in Medvedev.
The Russian said something telling and perhaps not that surprising after his first career loss to Tsitsipas on Monday: “I think just general energy was not the way I wanted. And talking about energy, I’m not talking only about physical. Mentally I was missing something. I didn’t have good energy enough to get the win today. But honestly, the way I was practicing last few weeks, I really lost a little bit the level I was playing.”
Given his exertions in the summer it’s logical that he’d have a let down at some point and unfortunately for us it seems to have come just before he hangs his racquets up for the season (Davis Cup aside).
So, it looks given the state of the two players that we won’t get anything like a repeat of their epic US Open final clash and this could well be a straight sets damp squib to one or the other.
It certainly doesn’t appeal as a betting heat, as many of these end-of-season matches don’t, although in terms of pure value 2.17 about Nadal now compared to his price of 1.165 only two months ago is interesting.
But there’s probably more value in looking at the evening match from a betting perspective, with two players who are much more likely to be up for it (physically and mentally) going head-to-head.
And based on their opening matches of this tournament the obvious bet in the clash between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev is to back the set one overs or tie break played.
Both men won 88% of their first serve points on Monday and neither man even faced a break point against Medvedev and Nadal and their career series has been a tight one.
Tsitsipas has won the last three, but the Greek won fewer points overall when he beat Zverev in Montreal last year; won only 38% of his second serve points when he defeated Zverev in Beijing last month and won only four more points in total in Madrid in May.
And the stat that stands out the most for me in their career clashes is the one that says Tsitsipas has taken a huge 55% of his break point opportunities against Zverev.
It’s actually been Zverev that’s created far more break chances (0.65 per game compared to the 0.39 of Tsitsipas) in their four meetings, but the German hasn’t been able to take them where the Greek has.
That points to Tsitsipas being the calmer of the two in the key moments and for someone who serves like Zverev to only save 45% of the break points against him will be very disappointing for the German.
Breaking the serve of the tour’s best players isn’t usually something that comes easily for Tsitsipas, whose break point conversion percentage versus the players I have in my database as ‘top-10 quality’ in matches played in the last 12 months at main level is just 30.9%.
That shows that the 55% he’s taken so far against Zverev is somewhat of an anomaly and in his 16 matches versus those top-10 quality players he breaks only 13.3% of the time.
So, I’m happy to take the 1.85 on Zverev here, despite the German’s fluctuating level this season, as he does seem to play well here at the O2 and the price looks fair enough.
The other option is the over 10.5 games in set one at 2.35.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Zverev to beat Tsitsipas at 1.85
