We enjoyed a comfortable winner with Pablo Carreno Busta over Jeremy Chardy in Adelaide on Wednesday and we move on to quarter finals day now in week two – and the weather could well play a part in proceedings on Thursday.
Strong wind warnings are in place for the Adelaide area and 30kph speeds (gusts up to 65kph) are forecast on a day that’s set to be around 10C cooler than earlier in the week at 22C in the shade.
Dan Evans vs Andrey Rublev
On paper those look pretty good conditions for our man Evans, who’ll appreciate it being cooler and is a good player in the wind, with his movement and slice game helping him out in windy conditions.
He has a tough one in Rublev, who overcame jet lag and a big drift in the betting to beat Sam Querrey comfortably on Wednesday, but I wonder if it will catch up with the Russian today?
“I didn’t sleep all night because of jet lag, but I’m really happy with my energy today,” Rublev said after beating Querrey, but it may well hit him on Thursday and Rublev looks a bit short in price for this one in the circumstances against an in-form Evans.
Rublev has been in great touch lately, but he’s still not winning enough points on his second serve and while this match is being played on the more protected Centre Court the string winds could still have a part to play here.
Rublev, while winning 9 of his last 10 matches, has only won 46.9% of his second serve points and we’ll have to wait and see if the wind will allow Rublev to a) serve strongly enough and consistently enough to protect that second serve and b) be able to play as aggressively off the ground as he likes to.
When this pair clashed at the Indian Wells Challenger last season Evans had a knee injury and that result is overlooked for me (Evans did beat Rublev back in 2016, also at Challenger level).
Given the wind and the possibility of Rublev being fatigued after missing a night’s sleep and the good form of Evans lately the Brit looks the best of the underdogs on Thursday at 2.45.
Our other remaining outright this week, Hubert Hurkacz, is going along nicely as well at the moment and faces what’s likely to be a fatigued Feli Lopez in the Auckland quarter finals.
Lopez played two three-setters on Wednesday and certainly appeared to be struggling against a typically half-hearted Fabio Fognini (who later quit his doubles with a back strain) in his second match of the day.
“It is okay,” Lopez said. “Maybe it is a bit too much for a 38 year old guy. But it is fine. I think I will be 100% tomorrow. I'm going to rest, be with the physio for a while and tomorrow I'll be ready.”
I’d have taken this situation in the quarter finals for Hurkacz at the start of the week and the Pole really should be winning this one.
Tommy Paul has been in fine form so far this week, not dropping a set yet in qualies or the main draw and he dismissed Pablo Cuevas for the loss of just two games on Wednesday.
That sort of form should be too much for Albert Ramos and Paul is 25-8 in his career against lefties at all levels (3-1 at main level), but the strong winds could be an issue and it doesn’t look a day for backing players rather inexperienced players at odds like 1.57.
Ramos is more than capable of toughing it out in tricky conditions and I’d also expect Ramos’ fellow Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta to have the control needed on the day against Lloyd Harris, who may fins serving bombs tough on a very windy outside court.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has shown some fallibility against lefties so far in his main level career, holding a losing 5-8 record so far, and I wonder if a motivated Alex Bolt (who’s from this area) might push the Canadian here.
Bolt played very well in beating Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets on Wednesday and on that form he has a live chance against FAA, who’s still quite early into a comeback from injury.
In Auckland I’m a bit tempted to side with Benoit Paire as underdog against John Millman, with Paire’s recent form in pre-major weeks being very good lately.
Paire won Lyon last season ahead of the French and made the Winston-Salem final ahead of the US Open and maybe Millman is being favoured her after his good win over Karen Khachanov on Wednesday.
I said before that match that I wouldn’t be surprised if Millman went close against Khachanov and he has every chance against Paire, but as I said the other day, Paire has a fine record when priced up as slight underdog.
Paire did have the trainer out for a shoulder rub the other day against Thiago Monteiro and he’s played a lot of tennis in 2020 already, but his unorthodox style could be enough against Millman in Paire’s up for it.
Kyle Edmund is an option, too, against John Isner, but I’m not sure I’m wild about a price of 1.90 on the Brit, who looks to be getting back to some sort of form at the moment.
Edmund’s lost six of his last eight when priced up between 1.80 and 1.99 and I much prefer fellow Brit Evans at the prices today.
Best Bet
1 point win Evans to beat Rublev at 2.45
