Gianluca Mager got off to a fine start for us on Friday in Rio, as our 6-1 chance leads Dominic Thiem by a set and a break, but the question now is whether or not he can see out their rain-affected quarter final clash.
It’s an easy one to hedge now if anyone wants to do that, with Mager now a 1.65 chance from 7.0 originally, but you’ve got to wonder how keen Thiem is to want to play two matches in one day now if he’s carrying an injury?
I’ll let that one ride for now and hope Mager can see it out after our other bet of the day disappointed when Soon Woo Kwon flopped in the strong wind against Reilly Opelka.
Improbably, Opelka served really well in the Delray Beach gale, saying: “Given the circumstances I served unbelievably. It was one of the windiest matches I've played in a while, so I'll take it.”
On to Saturday’s semi finals now and I probably should have taken Gilles Simon against Daniil Medvedev yesterday given their styles, but it’s so hard to trust Simon these days, at 35 and with numerous injury problems and wildly inconsistent results.
The last two weeks he’s been eased aside by a barely fit and very rusty Richard Gasquet and a Gale Monfils playing back-to-back long weeks and he should have been a set down to Aljaz Bedene in this week’s quarters, too.
But I said a few weeks ago that Medvedev was no certainty to carry on his 2019 form into 2020 (at least not right away) and so it’s proven, with Medvedev producing a stroppy display when he started losing against Simon.
Gillou made an interesting comment about the conditions here at the Open 13 this week and it may go some way to understanding why Simon has done well this tournament so far:
“Before when I played Open 13, I was on my baseline, I had to hit the ball early,” Simon said. “Today, I can stay two metres behind and I will not be often overwhelmed, I can use my tactics, and above all I have time.”
I wouldn’t count him out against what must be a fatigued Felix Auger-Aliassime today, but I’m not trusting the fitness of Simon either, so I’ll pass.
Alexander Bublik has been making waves lately by admitting that he only plays for money and he was at it again after beating Denis Shapovalov to set up a meet with former junior rival Stefanos Tsitsipas.
“When I was young, I was really talented, so that I could play on one leg without working,” admitted Bublik. “From the juniors, Stefanos [Tsitsipas] already behaved like a pro. I only understand today that it is important, because I have to make a living, but also because I realise that I have a lot of ego.”
Maybe this ego (and the lure of a further €15,000 in prize money) will press Bublik into action on Saturday in what will be a third career clash with Tsitsipas after two in juniors back in 2015.
The Greek won both of those (at Wimbledon and the Australian Open), but both were quite and if Bublik can carry on serving as he has been (85.4% holds this week and 80% first serve points won) a tie break or two seems likely.
Tsitsipas hasn’t been broken at all this week and often struggles to break big servers, so the over 10.5 games in set one at 2.88 appeals in this one.
Moving on to Delray Beach now and there’s little more than a serving contest between Milos Raonic and Reilly Opelka, which holds little interest, but perhaps Yoshihito Nishioka can upset Ugo Humbert.
It’ll be very windy again in Delray Beach on Saturday, with 28kph speeds expected when this match gets underway at 15:00 local time (20:00 UK) and perhaps the steadier game of Nishioka can reap its rewards.
Humbert has possibly been a little too respected by the market here after easily beating the out of form Frances Tiafoe, who was again poor on Friday and Nishioka was certainly in the mood to battle and fight against Brandon Nakashima on Friday.
He was often overpowered by Nakashima and he will be at times today, too, but I don’t fancy Humbert at 1.66 in these conditions, given also that Nishioka just narrowly edges the service hold/break totals in the past 12 months on outdoor hard at main level.
Over at the Rio Open they have only one match for us to consider because of the rain delays there and it’s one that Cristian Garin will expect to win against Borna Coric on clay.
Garin should have beaten Coric on grass last summer in Rosmalen (served for the match twice and had a match point) and this will be their first meet on clay since French Open juniors in 2013 (Garin won that one).
The Chilean has been a bit of a mixed bag this week, but his in and out display last night against Federico Coria may have been exacerbated by the changing conditions.
Even so, he only won 37% on his second ball against Coria, and someone with more experience in the big moments than the Argentine may have made Garin pay.
Coric’s clay stats are very good for a player that hadn’t until this week been past a quarter final on the dirt since winning Marrakech in 2017, with 84.1% holds and 21.3% breaks in his last 18 matches in 12 months.
That’s only 2% behind Garin’s total and perhaps the fresher legs of Coric could be key here, but his form has been so weak lately that I couldn’t back him in this one.
They may not even get on court today in Rio (or if they do, delays look likely) as the forecast predicts rain/showers all day long, so I’ll pass on this one.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 10.5 games in set one of Tsitsipas/Bublik at 2.88
