We got back to winning ways on Wednesday with a handy 3.85 winner (drifted to 4.0 by the off) when Robin Haase produced a very typical Robin Haase in Rotterdam performance: starting well and then losing in three to the more favoured player.
This time the opponent was David Goffin, who edged past the Dutchman from a set down and our set one win to Haase bet was, unusually for a Haase wager, rarely in much danger of landing.
Then it got even better later on when Vasek Pospisil took the opening set from a break down against Daniil Medvedev to provide a 3.70 winner and indeed went on to beat the Russian in straight sets.
So, a very good day for us, and it’ll be another year in Rotterdam where the number one seed has failed to win the tournament (only Federer has won it as top seed since 2011) and we have five matches to consider on Thursday.
And this price of 1.22 on Andrey Rublev against Alexander Bublik looks a tad short to me given the ay their career series has gone and also that Rublev has had his fair share of problems against not only Bublik, but plenty of the ‘unpredictables’ in my database.
In 14 career matches at all levels against this group of players Rublev is 6-8 win/loss and with only two wins in straight sets: one a 6-3, 7-6 (15-13) win over Benoit Paire in a Challenger in 2016 and the other a 7-6, 7-6, 6-3 victory over Nick Kyrgios in New York last summer.
Rublev just about got over the line against Bublik on indoor hard in Vienna last October 8-6 in a final set tie break as a 1.37 chance in a match played the week after Rublev won the title in Moscow.
Indeed, he beat Bublik the previous week in Moscow, too, but it was another tight one, with Rublev winning it 6-4 in the third.
And in their first meeting (also in Moscow) back in 2026 Bublik won as a 3.32 chance and the main difference in the stats of their career series lies in the frequency of break points taken.
All their serving stats are very similar indeed and both men have created around 0.55 break opportunities per game, but Rublev has taken exactly half of his opportunities, where Bublik has converted only 30.4% of his chances.
In short, Rublev’s been better in the big moments, which you’d probably expect, but given how close their series has been and also the performance of both of these men on serve already this week, the overs looks the bet.
Rublev won 90% of his first serve points against a wayward Nikoloz Basilashvili, while Bublik won 86% of his versus Gregoire Barrere (16 aces) so if he stays at that sort of level (never a given with Bublik) his unusual style should give Rublev enough problems for our bet to have a good chance at odds-against.
Depending on what mood he’s in I wouldn’t be surprised if Aljaz Bedene made life more difficult for Stefanos Tsitsipas than the prices suggest.
Bedene has been serving and playing well on indoor hard lately (apart from when I backed him last week) and in his eight career matches at main level indoors versus the current top-25 he’s 3-5 win/loss and with 83% holds of serve.
He has a hold/break total of over 100 in those eight matches and if he’s not in one of those moods where he seems to think the whole world is against him, then over games or sets is possible.
Bedene has held serve 91.6% of the time in his last 11 main level matches on indoor hard this past 12 months and he’s won 84.4% of his first serve points, which is impressive.
Tsitsipas had an MTO for a shoulder problem during his win over Hubert Hurkacz in round one and of that issue he said:
“I don't think it's something that I need to worry [about] right now. It was just a little bit of pain that I felt in my shoulder. I still feel it a little bit; it's quite tense.”
I’m not sure I’m of a mind to trust Bedene again after last week’s showing, but he might make it tough for the Greek on Thursday.
The all-French encounter between Gael Monfils and Gilles Simon could be absolutely anything, with clashes between this pair usually ones for the purists only; some of them have been bizarre, like the 0-6, 6-0, 7-6 affair the last time they met.
Add to the mix likely fatigue for both men, with Monfils having won a title last week and Simon having played a tough and long three-setter on Wednesday, and you have a recipe for something peculiar again between this pair.
Of much more interest is the clash between Jannik Sinner and David Goffin, with Sinner capable of causing problems for the Belgian if Sinner finds his best form, but the price on the young Italian isn’t the best.
He hasn’t done enough yet against top class opponents to be as short as 2.95 to beat them and he’s only won one of his five matches so far in 2020, so I’ll pass on Sinner here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 22.5 games in Bublik/Rublev at 2.17
