It was a decent day for those that took a chance on a few from my list of potential underdog winners on Tuesday in Madrid, with David Ferrer, Guido Pella, and Marton Fucsovics all successful.
Ferrer’s win rarely looked anything like secure, with the veteran on his back receiving treatment (and also a pill) midway through the final set against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn’t look like he really had the heart to beat Ferru in his last event.
Over the last six years the second round in Madrid has produced an average of 32% of underdog winners and we’ve have had none so far from four matches played on Tuesday.
The forecast for Wednesday suggests it’ll be another windy day in Madrid – even more so that Tuesday – with the speed ranging from 28kph up to 35kph, so conditions will be tough.
Fernando Verdasco vs Karen Khachanov
I don’t like the idea one bit of backing Khachanov as favourite in windy conditions at a venue where the balls fly and are tough to control and against a motivated opponent, too.
Khachanov’s form has been little short of awful this season and it remains to be seen whether or not one victory here in Madrid will be the start of a bit of a revival from the Russian, who ended last season so very well.
It doesn’t seem likely that 33kph winds and balls flying around will fit his high-risk power game that well and he is yet to prove that his weaker backhand wing is up to the job against a good lefty on clay.
Thus far in his career Khachanov is 2-6 win/loss against left-handers on clay (only one of those was against Nadal) and he’s lost his last four in a row to Zeballos, Delbonis, Nadal and Pella.
Given that at 36 years of age in November this could be Verdasco’s last time in his hometown tournament he’ll be desperate to go as deep as he can this week and having got a match under his belt already he should fancy this.
In theory Verdasco should be the one more likely to be able to keep control of the ball with heavy top spin in these tough conditions and he also has the better service hold/break total on clay at main level in his last 50 matches (45 matches for Khachanov).
Nando leads that figure by 105 to 103.9 and much of the Spaniard’s poor form this year can be put down to a lack of matches due to him becoming a new dad.
Khachanov has lost four of his last six when priced up as a 1.60-1.80 favourite and in his main level career as a whole he’s 3-3 on clay in that price range, while Verdasco has won four of his last seven as a 2.20 to 2.50 underdog and is 7-8 in total on clay in that range.
I can’t imagine it’ll be an easy watch, this one, and it could be a wild ride with Verdasco as usual, but odds-against is worth a small interest in these circumstances, I feel.
Other underdogs that might be ones to consider on Thursday include Laslo Djere, Guido Pella, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Adrian Mannarino, but two are those are based on the condition of the opponent.
Djere takes on Juan Martin Del Potro, whose knee has been a problem for some time and Delpo’s agent said yesterday: “After returning to the tour in Madrid doubles, [Del Potro] decided that he will test his knee in Wednesday's singles.”
Doesn’t sound like Delpo’s expecting much and what of Rafael Nadal, who’s reportedly been suffering from a sick bug and the latest I have on that from him is as follows:
“Sunday I woke up not very well with a stomach virus. Yesterday I trained a little bit and today I trained a little bit more. I’m not going to lie I still have a strange feeling. The positive side is that I have been able to train for at least 1.5 hours.”
Rather than guessing on Delpo and Rafa I’m more of a mind to take the price in some way on Adrian Mannarino, who looks very big indeed against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Greek has been put in at a crazy 1.15 for this one, presumably because he won Estoril, but he was hardly impressive there and last year he had a big problem coming from there to Madrid.
Tsitsipas lost to Evgeny Donskoy last year as a 1.33 chance, not handling the change in conditions at all well, so while it’s perhaps a tall order to expect Mannarino to beat him on clay he does have his chances today.
The Frenchman, a classic confidence player if ever there was one, might start to feel good after a couple of wins this week and he has little to lose as a lucky loser, so no pressure at all.
Mannarino has beaten the likes of Tsonga, Cuevas and Pella on the red dirt, which shows that he can be effective on it if he’s feeling confident and these quicker conditions should help.
Who knows how Tsitsipas will handle the wind and the change in conditions and 1.15 on him winning this is daft, so Mannarino to win set one at 4.0 or one of the handicaps on the Frenchman (or tie break played at 3.45) look the ones to consider here.
Best Bet
0.5 points win Verdasco to beat Khachanov at 2.08
0.5 points win Mannarino to win set one at 4.0
