We managed to find another pretty comfortable underdog winner on Saturday, with Mikhail Kukushkin showing much too much court craft and tactical nous for Ugo Humbert in Marseille.
Kuku even went an entire set without losing a single point on his own serve, but it wasn’t long before we suffered another galling loss on the outrights when Aljaz Bedene didn’t even make it to the court for his semi final in Rio due to injury.
He would have been not far off an even money chance in the final there I’d have thought, but the hamstring problem that he suffered in the quarter finals must have been serious for him to quit an ATP 500 in the semi finals.
We move on to Sunday’s finals, then, starting at the Open 13 in Marseille at around 13:00 UK time.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Tsitsipas is looking to buck the trend of number one seeds failing to win this Marseille title in which only Robin Soderling in 2011 has taken home the trophy this decade as top seed.
The Greek came through his first real test this week on Saturday when he benefitted from another failure from David Goffin to serve out a set and the Belgian couldn’t recover from it.
Goffin was a couple of points away from the set on serve, but having failed to put it away he lost seven points in a row in the breaker, which was enough for Goffin’s lack of confidence to show itself and Tsitsipas ran away with set two.
He’ll have to play well on Sunday though if he’s to justify 1.29 favouritism against Kukushkin, against whom he had to go the distance twice last year to beat the Kazakh.
The first of those meetings came on outdoor hard in Dubai a year ago in a match where Kukushkin was struggling with a shoulder injury and still took the Greek to three sets.
The on slow clay in Rome – not Kuku’s best playing conditions – it went all the way to a final set breaker and this time it was Tsitsipas that was struggling – taking a MTO early on in that match.
If Kukushkin is able to continue the sort of form he’s shown all week (and in Davis Cup before that) he should make this close at least and the bet I like here for small stakes is the over 12.5 games in set one at a price of 3.80.
Tsitsipas has held serve 97% of the time this week in Marseille in these quick conditions and Kukushkin 95% of the time (he didn’t lose a point on serve in set one yesterday) and each has held 85-87% of the time in the last year on indoor hard at main level.
The main concern for this wager is the likely nerves (probably more from Kukushkin, who’s into his first main level final since Sydney in 2015), but if the pair carry on serving as they have been on this pacy court I’d expect to see a breaker in this one.
Over in Delray Beach their final will be an altogether different affair, with two players in Dan Evans and Radu Albot relying more on movement, variety and making few mistakes to win their points.
It’ll be the first time that this pair have locked horns and it’s likely to be a cagey affair, but I just feel that Evans has a few more tricks in his bag than Albot, who’s really done it the hard way to get to the final.
He had to come from a set down again on Saturday, but he did it in style, not losing another game from 3-6 behind to Mackenzie McDonald to make a maiden Tour level final and I have to say I did not see this run coming from Albot on outdoor hard.
Evans has been great all week though and even having faced the likes of Isner he’s still broken serve 36.2% of the time in the main draw in Delray Beach this year.
Isner imploded in rapid and bizarre fashion from the middle of set two against Evans, who was well on top by the end, with Isner not showing a great deal better attitude than Nick Kyrgios by the latter stages, perhaps struggling in the heat, who knows?
I’ll take Evans here, but not at 1.57, and over in Rio we’ve got Felix Auger-Aliassime, who’s already become the youngest ATP 500 finalist of all-time, looking for a maiden Tour level title.
He’s been excellent all week and I said yesterday that Pablo Cuevas was too short on current form for their semi final, although the Uruguayan was struggling with some sort of neck problem.
It’s a first-time meet with another maiden finalist in Laslo Djere, whose luck has been in this week, having beaten an injured and off-form Dominic Thiem, then Taro Daniel and Casper Ruud to make an ATP 500 final after Bedene withdrew.
In such unique circumstances as two players into their first finals at main level it’s not one to bet on for me, but FAA has been the best player all week in Rio and I’d back him if I were forced into a wager in what should be a hard-hitting battle.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 12.5 games in set one of Tsitsipas/Kukushkin at 3.80
