I said yesterday that our man Juan Ignacio Londero looked the best of the underdogs on Saturday and Londero did progress to the Bastad final, producing a much cleaner and more efficient display on break point opportunities than earlier in the week.
There are also titles being decided in Umag and Newport, but it’s in Bastad where my interest lies on Sunday afternoon.
Nicolas Jarry vs Juan Ignacio Londero
So, once again we have a deciding match for one of our outrights and I’m hoping for a change of luck, having lost six of eight of these deciding matches so far in 2019.
The most recent was our 33-1 chance Sam Querrey to win Q3 at Wimbledon and he was beaten by Rafael Nadal – fair enough – but some of the others have been rough, not least when we backed Nicolas Jarry himself in Geneva and he missed a sitter on match point.
The weather might have a significant part to play in this Bastad final, with rain showers forecast until about 20:00 local time – and there’s plenty of wind around as well, ranging from 23 to 28kph.
That’s pretty windy and if we do get some play the wind may well affect the higher ball toss and poorer mover the most and that’s Jarry.
It might well be one of those on/off days though and that could alter the momentum of the match at any time, so conditions may well have a say here.
The pair have met once on the ATP World Tour and twice in Challengers, with Londero taking the recent tour level one on his way to winning the title in Cordoba earlier this season.
Londero exposed Jarry’s weaker backhand side that day and if there’s rain around, which seems highly likely, the conditions will be slow and I think that will suit Londero.
I’ve always found Jarry more effective in quicker conditions (Geneva, Sao Paulo, Kitzbuhel etc.) on the clay and I hope Londero will be able to pull Jarry around and expose his movement in slow conditions.
Londero perhaps got a little lucky on Saturday that Albert Ramos said he was feeling the effects of a long match the previous day, but it was less than two hours, as were his other two this week, so that’s got to be a worry for Ramos if he thinks that’s a tough few days.
Jarry has been very good so far this week, but he hasn’t had conditions as tough as they’re forecast to be on Sunday yet, so we’ll see how well he can serve and hit winners in 28kph wind and rain.
Having lost both of his finals at main level so far Jarry will perhaps feel that this is his time, but Londero will be a tough man to beat if it is damp and windy especially.
We’ve backed him at 25-1 for one point at the start, so given that six of our eight finalists have lost this season I’ll have five points on Jarry as a hedging wager at 1.72.
Over at the Croatia Open Umag it was another eventful and unpredictable day on Saturday when Attila Balazs became the third man from the qualifying draw to make the final in six years.
Having seen Balazs a fair bit over the years I didn’t really consider him as a viable contender for the Umag title this week and even less so after three long matches plus qualies to make the semi final.
Laslo Djere was again lacklustre in the semi final though the even when Balazs started to choke from 5-2 (double break) to almost 5-5 in set two there was no discernable change of expression or rise in intensity from Djere.
Balazs scored nicely with the drop shot against Djere and that may work again versus a committed baseliner like Dusan Lajovic, who stood very deep indeed against Salvatore Caruso in their semi final.
And it was cruel luck for Caruso, who, having had strapping on the left knee all week, pulled up in clear agony with what looked like a groin or thigh pull in that same leg late on in an opening set that Caruso had earlier served for.
Balazs beat Lajovic back in 2017 as a 3.66 chance at home in the qualies for Budapest and now that he’s made it this far fatigue perhaps won’t hit him now until after the final.
I’d still expect Lajovic’s extra quality to win it, but I expected Balazs to lose against Krajinovic and Djere and so he’s not without a chance of taking down a third Serb in a row and if he mixes up the play as he did against Djere it could be interesting indeed.
Finally, I certainly won’t be investing even half a point of my hard earned on a match involving Alexander Bublik, whose peculiar play style and weird shot choices will make for an entertaining final against John Isner in Newport.
But the weather could be a big factor in Newport as well as Bastad, with excessive heat warnings in place for the local area on Sunday after another boiling hot day on Saturday.
Isner was almost out for the count against Ugo Humbert on Saturday, but the inexperienced Frenchman was unable to bring it when it really mattered and once again an off form and struggling Isner sneaked through in three sets.
Given that it’s expected to be ‘real feel’ 38C on Sunday in Newport and having seen Isner struggle with his game all week I couldn’t possibly back him at 1.33 and if I were betting in this I’d probably take a chance on Bublik.
Who knows what Bublik will bring to the court on any given day or how he’ll react in a first main level final (10-1 win/loss in all finals) and in this brutal heat, but Isner at 1.33 on current form looks short.
Best Bet
5 points win Jarry to beat Londero at 1.72 (only if backed Londero outright at 25-1 pre-tournament)
