It was a case of the right idea, but ultimately a very narrow loss, for my 2-1 to Novak Djokovic bet at 3.90 against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday, with the Serb losing in a final set tie breaker from 4-1 up.
Those who took any of the other shorter priced suggestions in that one would have profited, but the big-priced bet was beaten frustratingly at the death, as Thiem’s fine form continues.
Then we suffered another bad beat – an even worse one in fact – when Daniil Medvedev decided to blow a 5-1 lead and a match point in the deciding set to lose to Rafael Nadal and with it his chances of winning the group.
A thoroughly miserable 24-hours or so was capped by Alexander Zverev’s weak performance, in losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas as slight favourite, meaning that for the first time in the 10 years of the Tour Finals at the O2 six betting underdogs have won – and they’ve done it in the first eight matches.
Totally unprecedented and another example of why betting in this end-of-year event is fraught with danger and my stakes and number of bets are kept very much to a minimum.
Thiem’s win over Djokovic means that Thiem is the first man through to the semi finals at the O2 this year and now Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic must go head-to-head in a straight shootout to join the Austrian in the semis from Group Bjorn Borg.
Understandably, that will be the evening match and the only one we can really focus on, as the afternoon clash between Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini is a dead rubber.
Berrettini can’t qualify and Thiem’s already through, so as ever at this tournament I won’t be getting involved in betting on a largely meaningless encounter.
That said I am a little tempted to back Berrettini at 3.10, given that the Italian was a 2.26 chance when this pair met less than three weeks ago in Vienna in slower conditions.
It’s quite conceivable that Thiem might save a bit for the semi finals, while Berrettini won’t want to go out of his first Tour Finals with a whimper, but it’s not a week for taking a punt on a theory.
I can’t say that I’m wildly keen for a bet in the Djokovic versus Federer match either, but at least we know that both men are likely to be giving it 100 percent.
Djokovic has the motivation of that year-end number one spot, while Federer claims to have made this week a “big goal” of his this season and of course, whatever he says Fed will be keen for revenge for that Wimbledon loss to Djokovic.
The Serb has now won their last five career meetings and nine of the last 11, with Fed’s last success over Djokovic coming here at the O2 in the 2015 Tour Finals round robin stage as a 3.59 chance.
That’s a little big bigger than Federer is for Thursday’s winner takes all clash and that O2 win over Djokovic in 2015 was the last time that Federer won a match when priced up at 3.0 or bigger (lost 9 of his last 12 when priced up at 3.0 or bigger).
If Federer wanted a blueprint on how to beat Djokovic on indoor hard he got it from Thiem the other day, with the Austrian opting for pure aggression as his tactic and it (just about) worked.
Federer doesn’t quite have the raw firepower of a Thiem, but it would be unwise to count the Swiss out of this one and if we look at their last two career clashes both were incredibly tight.
The epic Wimbledon final of this summer saw Federer lose in a final set tie break, having served for the match earlier in the set, while last year’s Bercy clash indoors also went to a final set breaker.
Looking at the stats of their last three meetings from the last 15 months or so – the only ones played between them since January 2016 – we find that it’s Federer who’s held serve more often at 90.5% and broken more often at 14.3%, yet he lost all three matches.
Fed has been far more clinical than Djokovic in terms of break point opportunities converted in those three matches, taking an impressive 56.3% of them, compared to the weak 23.1% of Djokovic.
Federer has also won more points on first serve and he’s only 2% behind on return points won, so most of the numbers favour the Swiss in those three encounters.
Djokovic won more points on second serve (58.7% compared to the 51.3% of Federer), but there’s enough in this from Fed’s side to suggest that if he has a good day he’s more than capable of at least keeping it close once more.
Numerous bet options hold some appeal here, with over 10.5 games in set one as a 3.10 chance a fair possibility, with five of their last nine career clashes having featured an opening set of 12 games or more.
The fact that both men have held serve 85-90% of the time in their last three meetings suggests that breaks will be at a premium and both men run between 0.10 and 0.14 break points won per game in those last three clashes.
Only six of their last 17 meetings on grass and hard courts have been decided in straight sets, so 2.45 on over 2.5 sets is another decent value option.
Djokovic has won 14 of the 19 matches between the pair that have gone to a deciding set and nine of the last 10 (the exception being a semi final win for Federer back in 2014 in Doha).
The Serb has won eight of their 10 matches at Masters level that have gone to a decider and all four of the ones at Grand Slam level, so based on that the 2-1 to Djokovic at 3.80 isn’t a bad option either.
We’re assured of around a 25-points profit on the season (despite an unbelievably unlucky year in outright semi finals and finals) and as I’ve said before these Tour Finals matches are often better watched than bet on, but a small interest on over 2.5 sets is worth a small play.
Best Bet
0.5 points win over 2.5 sets in Federer/Djokovic at 2.45
